Tuesday, February 03, 2004
Sasaki Returns to Yokohama
Good luck to Kazuhiro Sasaki as he joins the Yokohama BayStars for the 2004 season. I don't know quite what 500 million yen is worth (edited to add that now I do, its around $4.7M), but I believe it is substantially less than $8.5 million U.S. dollars. He did stay consistent and turned down the Nippon Ham Fighters because they were further from his family in Sapporo.
Leone getting ready for encore in 2004
And here's a hard-to-find article on Justin Leone's 2003 season, as he went from AA backup infielder to a major league blogspiration. The article provides the highlights of Leone's season including homering in an Olympics qualifying game, and manages to compare Leone to Tom Hanks, Mona Lisa, Rembrandt, and Art Garfunkel, which is pretty hard to pull off.
"Much of it is confidence," he said. "I changed my stance and my bat, but you've still got to believe."
Leone getting ready for encore in 2004
And here's a hard-to-find article on Justin Leone's 2003 season, as he went from AA backup infielder to a major league blogspiration. The article provides the highlights of Leone's season including homering in an Olympics qualifying game, and manages to compare Leone to Tom Hanks, Mona Lisa, Rembrandt, and Art Garfunkel, which is pretty hard to pull off.
"Much of it is confidence," he said. "I changed my stance and my bat, but you've still got to believe."
New Pessimist on the Block and more...
If you need to read more ranting and raving against the M's, I'm guessing that Bavasi Stinks will be your cup of tea :-)
For those pessimists who are saying how bad our team will be if we get an injury need to relax a bit. Nothing says that the replacement has to come from our bench, who with the exception of Dan Wilson, is filled with role players. Any long-term injury should lead to a Chris Snelling, Jose Lopez, or Justin Leone sighting, and they will all just be minutes away in Tacoma. And if that fails, we have a little money tucked away to take on salary in trade. So chill a bit.
And those who think that Kevin Jarvis is locked and loaded into a rotation spot should take a little bit of heart from this Bill Bavasi quote:
"We're going to be open-minded. It's going to be a real battle for the younger guys to get into this bullpen and rotation."
With Spring Training just around the corner, the bullpen looks to be the easiest place for a young player to break in with the M's.
While Eddie Guardado, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo are locks for the bullpen, the 5th and 6th (and 7th early on) are up for grabs with Kevin Jarvis the current favorite for long relief and Dieter (touch my monkey!) leading the pack for the required bullpen lefty role.
Meanwhile, a quick scan of other blogs shows that Justin Spiro accomplished his mission, in that more Seattle sports fans know his name than they do the name of the M's largest shareholder. And the MBSBL is back on, but we'll see if the pace picks up any. We could be drafting until the World Series at the current pace. Keep a look at the dates on the link on right as I will provide an update after each round.
Mariner Minors does a nice bit of digging on the M's Austrailian Connection. I'm moving him to the Optimist section, since anyone focused on the minors has to be an optimist of some sort, don't they?
Mariner Wheelhouse & Fire Bavasi combine with two other blogs to preview the AL West, position by position. I hope to do the same for the Mariners, but with the optimist perspective. They indicate they will be unburdened by past expectations or something like that but the first run has provided no surprises, although some may have missed the collaboration point by copying and pasting text into their blogs rather than linking to the other sites. We'll see if the next round provides more insight and maybe a more consistent format. The short of it is, the M's are worse and everyone else is better. Did you expect anything different?
Finally, on a high note, the 15-5 Rice Owls now show up on ESPN's bracketology as the 13th seed in the South. Any tournament bid is gonna have me figuring out logistics for a road trip.
For those pessimists who are saying how bad our team will be if we get an injury need to relax a bit. Nothing says that the replacement has to come from our bench, who with the exception of Dan Wilson, is filled with role players. Any long-term injury should lead to a Chris Snelling, Jose Lopez, or Justin Leone sighting, and they will all just be minutes away in Tacoma. And if that fails, we have a little money tucked away to take on salary in trade. So chill a bit.
And those who think that Kevin Jarvis is locked and loaded into a rotation spot should take a little bit of heart from this Bill Bavasi quote:
"We're going to be open-minded. It's going to be a real battle for the younger guys to get into this bullpen and rotation."
With Spring Training just around the corner, the bullpen looks to be the easiest place for a young player to break in with the M's.
While Eddie Guardado, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Rafael Soriano and Julio Mateo are locks for the bullpen, the 5th and 6th (and 7th early on) are up for grabs with Kevin Jarvis the current favorite for long relief and Dieter (touch my monkey!) leading the pack for the required bullpen lefty role.
Meanwhile, a quick scan of other blogs shows that Justin Spiro accomplished his mission, in that more Seattle sports fans know his name than they do the name of the M's largest shareholder. And the MBSBL is back on, but we'll see if the pace picks up any. We could be drafting until the World Series at the current pace. Keep a look at the dates on the link on right as I will provide an update after each round.
Mariner Minors does a nice bit of digging on the M's Austrailian Connection. I'm moving him to the Optimist section, since anyone focused on the minors has to be an optimist of some sort, don't they?
Mariner Wheelhouse & Fire Bavasi combine with two other blogs to preview the AL West, position by position. I hope to do the same for the Mariners, but with the optimist perspective. They indicate they will be unburdened by past expectations or something like that but the first run has provided no surprises, although some may have missed the collaboration point by copying and pasting text into their blogs rather than linking to the other sites. We'll see if the next round provides more insight and maybe a more consistent format. The short of it is, the M's are worse and everyone else is better. Did you expect anything different?
Finally, on a high note, the 15-5 Rice Owls now show up on ESPN's bracketology as the 13th seed in the South. Any tournament bid is gonna have me figuring out logistics for a road trip.
Monday, February 02, 2004
Soriano Update
The M's blogosphere is filled with conjecture on when Rafael Soriano will become a dominant pitcher in the rotation. Much of the discussion "blames" M's management for not giving him a rotation spot already, and letting him waste away in the bullpen. But maybe, just maybe, the M's know what they are doing.
I ran across this MLB.com article that interviewed Soriano on the eve of him being the starter for the Dominican Republic in the opening game of the 2004 Caribbean Series against Mexico. This after a Winter League performance where he set a league record allowing 2 earned runs in 42+ innings for a sparkling ERA of 0.21.
The article goes on to speculate that although he has found success as a starter, the M's pitching depth looks to keep him as a reliever in 2004. And that is fine with Soriano.
"I'll do whatever the team wants me to do," Soriano said. "I like pitching, so as long as I can pitch, I'll be happy. Whatever role I have, in the bullpen or starting, I have to be ready. I've shown what I can do, so it's not my decision. I don't know what they'll do in Seattle."
When asked what role he prefers, he didn't hesitate to answer.
"I like being a relief pitcher," Soriano said. "You only have to pitch a few innings, so I think it's easier."
Easier? Don't know if that's what I want my stud pitchers to be looking for, but I'm willing to let this slide.
As it turned out, Soriano got no-decision, giving up 2 runs on 2 hits with 5 K's in 5+ innings in a 6-5 Dominican win.
I ran across this MLB.com article that interviewed Soriano on the eve of him being the starter for the Dominican Republic in the opening game of the 2004 Caribbean Series against Mexico. This after a Winter League performance where he set a league record allowing 2 earned runs in 42+ innings for a sparkling ERA of 0.21.
The article goes on to speculate that although he has found success as a starter, the M's pitching depth looks to keep him as a reliever in 2004. And that is fine with Soriano.
"I'll do whatever the team wants me to do," Soriano said. "I like pitching, so as long as I can pitch, I'll be happy. Whatever role I have, in the bullpen or starting, I have to be ready. I've shown what I can do, so it's not my decision. I don't know what they'll do in Seattle."
When asked what role he prefers, he didn't hesitate to answer.
"I like being a relief pitcher," Soriano said. "You only have to pitch a few innings, so I think it's easier."
Easier? Don't know if that's what I want my stud pitchers to be looking for, but I'm willing to let this slide.
As it turned out, Soriano got no-decision, giving up 2 runs on 2 hits with 5 K's in 5+ innings in a 6-5 Dominican win.
Super Bowl Thoughts
Well, I got to see Janet Jackson's breast, though it looks like she may have some Michael-like discoloration going on with the nipple, and I got to see Nelly frisk himself to see if he could find a cucumber to go with his salad. Just what I want for my halftime entertainment.
And the University of Houston marching band? Puh-leeze - bring on the M.O.B. and get rid of the high school band. Would've been nice to give Rice a nod, since we were the host of Super Bowl V. Yes, a 70,000 seat stadium was built for a school with 2,500 students...
But after one of the most dull opening 20 minutes I could imagine, the game itself turned out excellent.
Poor Ricky Proehl. Twice in three years he catches a touchdown pass to tie the Super Bowl with a minute to play, and both times Tom Brady and Adam Vinatieri steal his thunder and glory.
Bud Light dominates the commercials with low-brow humor. Lets see - dog bite to the crotch, male bikini waxing, horse flatulence, and bestiality with monkeys. Most had me rolling, if that's any indicator of my humor level. Better yet, most had my wife laughing hard, which is why I love my wife...
Using Jimi Hendrix to sell Pepsi seems a bit creepy to me. I'd rather let the dead lie in peace.
Meanwhile, the MBSBL is on hold due to server issues, so I have time to decide who the Mariner Optimist will choose as its third catcher...
And the University of Houston marching band? Puh-leeze - bring on the M.O.B. and get rid of the high school band. Would've been nice to give Rice a nod, since we were the host of Super Bowl V. Yes, a 70,000 seat stadium was built for a school with 2,500 students...
But after one of the most dull opening 20 minutes I could imagine, the game itself turned out excellent.
Poor Ricky Proehl. Twice in three years he catches a touchdown pass to tie the Super Bowl with a minute to play, and both times Tom Brady and Adam Vinatieri steal his thunder and glory.
Bud Light dominates the commercials with low-brow humor. Lets see - dog bite to the crotch, male bikini waxing, horse flatulence, and bestiality with monkeys. Most had me rolling, if that's any indicator of my humor level. Better yet, most had my wife laughing hard, which is why I love my wife...
Using Jimi Hendrix to sell Pepsi seems a bit creepy to me. I'd rather let the dead lie in peace.
Meanwhile, the MBSBL is on hold due to server issues, so I have time to decide who the Mariner Optimist will choose as its third catcher...
Sunday, February 01, 2004
Karros-Seen in Oakland?
Eric Karros is set to sign a 1-year, $1M contract with the Oakland A's, according to this article in the L.A. Times. He was in discussion with the Dodgers as well, but no mention of the Mariners anywhere.
Meanwhile, the critics are piling on the Mariners offseason, saying that "no splash" = "fan betrayal".
I will remain steadfastly optimistic. Our starting rotation and bullpen are as good as anyone else's in baseball, and we have depth in both. Our bats are improved and we have money in pocket for a midseason move, if its necessary. And we have set ourselves up well for the Free Agent Binge of 2005.
Meanwhile, the critics are piling on the Mariners offseason, saying that "no splash" = "fan betrayal".
I will remain steadfastly optimistic. Our starting rotation and bullpen are as good as anyone else's in baseball, and we have depth in both. Our bats are improved and we have money in pocket for a midseason move, if its necessary. And we have set ourselves up well for the Free Agent Binge of 2005.
Friday, January 30, 2004
MBSBL Draft - Running Commentary
Here is the Optimist's commentary on the Mariners Blogsphere Simulated Baseball League draft. Remember that a player's performance in 2003 will determine how that player performs in this Diamond Mind league. There is no need for projections. This is about building the best team knowing exactly how your players will perform.
And here is FAQ 1 posted on 2/7 and FAQ 2 posted on 2/17 (better late than never!)
Rounds 14-16 (waiting for last two picks)
Well, as I wrote in my summary of my LIMA time strategy, it looks like Fire Bavasi is in good shape, as Johan Santana can start games even though the MBSBL website only lists him as a reliever. Essentially, any pitcher who started a single game may be a starter. This certainly strengthens FB in my eyes, and probably moves them into the top 3.
Rounds 14-16 were all about pitching, primarily picking up relievers. Of the first 28 players taken, 14 can only be used as relievers, 8 starters, and only 6 were position players. Even three of the starters acquired were primarily relievers.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 16 (Ranking after Round 13 in paren) with commentary on their 14-16 round picks.
1(2). SanShin - Kevin Gregg, Matt Mantei, Tim Spooneybarger. Gregg's OBP against of 278 was the lowest value for a starter (other than the reliever/starters who had not been identified yet), and Mantei has a stellar 259 OBP against. San Shin definitely continues to weigh OBP over SLG against, while I'm taking the opposite approach, so it will be interesting to compare the stats of our bullpen at year end. Spooneybarger had the top splits in a reliever (190/245/254/499) and I can't believe he lasted this long. Interesting that he is a Righty who gets lefties out MUCH better (417 OPS vs 567 OPS). Very nice pick.
2(1). SodoOhNo - Eddie Guardado, Joe Borowski, Julio Mateo. Two of the top relievers out there, gives Sodo a nice closer in Borowski and a lefty setup guy in Guardado. Guardado was the third best lefty reliever and the top two were taken just before, so Sodo closed the run on lefty relievers nicely. Mateo is a stretch with his 220/257/382/640 line. That SLG against makes me nervous and the difference between Mateo & Spooneybarger cost Sodo Oh No #1 in my book. They're that close.
3(4). Fire Bavasi - Ryan Klesko, Matt Morris, Scot Shields. Klesko's righty mashing completes a very nice 1B platoon. Shields and Morris are two of the top starting pitchers available and round out a frightening 5-man rotation with Prior, Santana, and Webb for the FB.
4(5). Cracking - Damaso Marte, Byung-Hyun Kim, Brian Jordan. Well, I beat him to Rheal Cormier (245 OPS against), so he settled for the #2 lefty reliever in Marte (270 OPS against). But got revenge by snagging Kim and his beautiful 221/288/341/629 line to probably be his staff ace. Jordan's 1131 OPS against lefties and outfield flexibility make him a fantastic addition that, of course, I hoped would fall to me next round. Cracking and I are using the same cheat sheet :-)
5(3). 116ers - Brendan Donnelly, Miguel Batista. Donnelly was the best righty reliever on the board at the time (maybe behind Ryan Wagner), but there were better options than Batista. Donnelly may act as the 116ers closer.
6(8). M.O. - Rheal Cormier, Oscar Villarreal, Ryan Wagner. The top lefty reliever in Cormier (182/245/269/514), top righty reliever in Wagner(173/284/267/551) and the top starter in Villarreal (222/306/310/616). The big risk is that Villarreal's ONLY "start" lasted only 3 innings and I don't know if Diamond Mind has a fatigue factor.
7(7). What The? - Miguel Cabrera, Latroy Hawkins, Doug Waechter. Cabrera mashes lefties (364/397/655/1052) and plays a decent 3B, but might need a platoon partner for his 739 OPS against righties. Latroy was probably the second worst reliever taken, but he's still pretty good. Waechter is a very nice starter with a 225/310/364/675 line and who can forget how he shut down the M's in September.
8(6). Musings - Darrell May, David Riske, Mike Bordick. May is solid and while his 246/290/435/725 does not look as good as some others, he does pitch in Kaufmann stadium. I need to find some ballpark-neutral splits. Riske (196/256/336/592) is a solid reliever. Bordick hits lefties to the tune of 347/441/537/978 and plays great defense at three positions, but Musings will need a platoon partner to avoid his 600 OPS against righties.
9(10). Weekly - Rafael Furcal, Vicente Padilla, Paul Quantrill. Furcal is the weakest starting shortstop in the league, but he's fast. Padilla was the worst starter taken (251/313/413/726) but is a very solid #5, and Paul Quantrill is a top reliever (227/271/290/561).
10(9). The Safe - Matthew Lecroy, Shigetoshi Hasegawa. And here is the worst reliever taken so far. Not only is Hasegawa's 235/283/337/620 line 20 points worse in OPS than anyone else, but it was also put up in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, and should suffer further in a neutral field. Lecroy was the best catcher available, but the worst catcher that will start for any team.
Rounds 11-13
The Mariner Optimist had a plan. Load up on offense where every player in the lineup had an OPS of 900 or better. To do this would require a platoon. Looking at where we stand after 13 rounds, I'm almost there.
The more subtle part of my plan was to wait and hope that after I had acquired my offense, that my top pitching picks would still be on the board. And they would be the best pitchers in the league. Why? Because they had pitched so few innings, most people would overlook them as relievers, or worry about injuries. But this simulation is specifically set up to make anyone rated "starter" eligible to start all season long, and no injuries will occur. Will they tire quickly? Maybe, that is certainly the risk.
Unfortunately, San Shin and Sodo Oh No beat me to the punch, first grabbing Wilson Alvarez, and then a mere three picks before I was ready to strike grabbing my #2 and #3 choices in the brothers Jose - Acevedo and Contreras. So I settled for choices #4 and #5 in Tony Armas and Eric Dubose.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 13 (previous ranking in paren) with commentary on their 11-13 round picks.
1(1). SodoOhNo - Contreras, Bagwell, Clemens. Clemens is a nice pitcher with 694 OPS against, 1.22 WHIP and great K/9, and he is Sodo's #4 starter. Bagwell fills their one hole at 1B perfectly, moving Giambi to DH where he belongs. This team is stacked, and other than catcher has no need for platoons.
2(2). SanShin - Acevedo, Jason Phillips, Jose Valverde. Its a Jose run for San Shin, who goes for the top OPS against reliever (a meager 489) as I predicted they would. Hopefully, I throw a wrench in their plans by grabbing the top OPS lefty reliever in Rheal Cormier, but I'm sure they will survive.
3(6). 116ers - Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney, Eduardo Perez. Perez kills lefties to a 1200+ OPS and plays 4 positions so he's nice to have around and he'll probably platoon at DH with Sweeney to make a potent hitter. Piazza has been the top catcher on the board for awhile now and will remain healthy in simulation.
4(3). Fire Bavasi - Mike Cameron, Cliff Floyd, Octavio Dotel. Dotel is a great reliever (552 OPS against), but if FB was planning on starting him, they may be in trouble. Floyd moves Chipper nicely to DH and Cameron will have a lot of ground to cover to make up for being the worst offensive player taken in the draft with a 775 OPS.
5(7). Cracking - Mark Redman, Keith Foulke, Luis Castillo. Redman was a fantastic pick as the best lefty starter available and Foulke is a good closer. Castillo had some pop last year, but was caught stealing in almost half his attempts. Will be interesting to see if that is used against him.
6(5). Musings - Mike Lieberthal, Larry Walker, Kip Wells. No complaints here - a top catcher, DH and pitcher are all solid picks for Musings. Looking forward to seeing him finally pick up a shortstop.
7(8). What The? - Orlando Cabrera, Carl Everett, Guillermo Mota. Cabrera was the top SS on the board, has speed, good D and no need to platoon him. I hope the M's make a run on him next year. Everett is a nice basher in the outfield and Mota is one of the top relievers with a 552 OPS against.
8(10). M.O. - Armas and Dubose form a nice 1-2 Righty-Lefty punch in the rotation and Phil Nevin will partner with Matt Stairs to create a Bondsian platoon at 1B.
9(9). The Safe - Ray Durham, Tike Redman, Edwin Jackson. Edwin had a nice 669 OPS against but the others fail to impress enough to move the Safe up.
10(4). Weekly - Aaron Boone, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Grudzielanek. A team that looked great three rounds ago looks a lot less formidable. As opposed to outfielders ManRam and JuanGone, these infielders can field, but they are the worst hitting infielders in the league at this point. But all three still hit better than Cameron.
Round 10
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
Fire Bavasi - Craig Wilson (Craig Wilson) - got one, and I think this is a nice pickup for F.B.
Mariners Weekly - Andruw Jones(Jay Payton) - Jones is probably better than Payton, but I wonder if Podsednik is not better than both. Either way MW needs to make his pick quicker as this one took about 18 hours.
Mariners Musings - C.C. Sabathia (Mike Piazza) - steals the top VORP starting pitcher from San Shin. Good to know someone is reading this :-)
Mariner Optimist - Bobby Abreu(Bobby Abreu) - will this guy ever take a starting pitcher? The lineup will have no weak spots from top to bottom.
Cracking The Safe - Jason Kendall(Keith Foulke) - I meant, starting a catcher run, but why Kendall - there are several catchers with better EqA, OPS..
Sodo Oh No - Greg Myers (Matt Mantei). Catcher run/Closer run, what's the difference? Best catcher out there against righties but needs platoon-mate.
San Shin - Edgar Martinez (C.C. Sabathia) - I like that Edgar guy - thought he would go to the Safe in round 11.
What the? - Placido Polanco (Rafael Furcal) - positional flexibility with similar OPS as Furcal.
116 - Scott Podsednik (Eddie Guardado) - Finally, someone has been reading my picks, but this team needs
The Safe - Jay Payton (Jay Payton) - Hmm.. I had Payton going twice in this round but only once I was wrong. We'll see how he translates outside Coors.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 10:
1. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo, LF Gonzalez, 3B Ensberg, 1B Giambi, 2B Kent, SP Alvarez, C Myers) - 2 pitcher
2. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles, RF Ordonez, 2B Soriano, 3B Lowell, SP Zito, 1B NJohnson, DH Edgar) - 1 pitcher
3. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana, SS Jeter, 2B Vidro, C Varitek, SP Webb, LF Chipper, 1B CWilson) - 3 pitchers
4. Weekly (LF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez, RP Wagner, DH Ortiz, SP Oswalt, RF JuanGone, SP Zambrano, CF AJones) - 4 pitchers + closer
5. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas, 3B Chavez, SP Mulder, SP Wood, LF Drew, RP Rivera, SP Sabathia) - 2 pitchers + closer
6. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins, 3B Loretta, SP Livan, CF Podsednik) - 3 pitchers
7. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff, CF Anderson, LF/RF Sanders, CF Bradley, 1B Sexson, SP Nomo, C Kendall) - 2 pitchers
8. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina, LF/CF Berkman, 1B/3B/LF DYoung, C IRod, CF PWilson, SP Colon, 2B/3B Polanco) - 3 starters + closer
9. The Safe (RF Ichiro, RF Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer, SS Tejada, 1B/2B Blalock, RP Soriano, 1B DLee, SP Willis, OF Payton) - 3 starters + closer
10. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran, RP Smoltz, LF/RF Guillen, SS/3B/2B Cintron, 1B/LF/RF Stairs, 3B Koskie, RF Abreu) - closer
Round 9
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
The Safe - Dontrelle Willis(Carlos Zambrano) - Willis may have been the best lefty out there after Alvarez.
116 - Livan Hernandez(Scott Podsednik) - Admittedly my guess was a throwaway - and 116 probably saw that WTTH was gonna take Livan, so he scooped him up.
What the? - Bartolo Colon(Livan Hernandez) - Livan was gone, so went for next best WHIP out there in Colon.
San Shin - Nick Johnson(Mike Piazza) - Catchers get no love here, and Jeff scoops up the top 1B against RHP. Nice pick.
Sodo Oh No - Wilson Alvarez(Greg Myers) - May be the best pitcher in the league, depending on how Diamond Mind handles fact he only pitched 95 innings - 2.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Very nice.
Cracking The Safe - Hideo Nomo(Placido Polanco) - Its officially a pitcher run!
Mariner Optimist - Corey Koskie(Chipper Jones) - Couldn't grab Chipper when there are still lots of OF, but the drop off against RHP between Koskie and #2 Aaron Boone was 147 OPS points.
Mariners Musings - Mariano Rivera(Orlando Cabrera) - We have our fourth closer.
Mariners Weekly - Carlos Zambrano(Jay Payton) - back to the pitcher run. Pitchers? Who needs em?
Fire Bavasi - Chipper Jones(Cliff Floyd) - I guess I'll end up with Floyd in a round or two...
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 9:
1. SodoOhNo - Wilson freakin Alvarez for MBSBL Cy Young?
2. SanShin - May need a platoon-mate for Nick Johnson at 1B.
3. Fire Bavasi - Chipper has no glove, but a great bat for round 9.
4. 116ers - Livan had a helluva season last year.
5. Weekly - Zambrano had worst WHIP of the 6 starters taken this round.
6. Musings - Mariano a damn nice closer.
7. Cracking - Nomo best ERA of the 6 starters taken this round.
8. M.O. - Koskie continues strong offense
9. The Safe - Don't like Willis over some of the other pitchers here.
10. What The? - No harm in adding Colon
Round 8
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
Fire Bavasi - Brandon Webb (Brandon Webb) - best pitcher out there. Great pick.
Mariners Weekly - Juan Gonzalez (Matt Stairs) - Fields like Stairs without the errors, hits lefties & righties
Mariners Musings - J.D. Drew(Bartolo Colon). A healthy J.D. Drew for a year... I think that even with injuries off, Drew will pull a hammy...
Mariner Optimist - Matt Stairs(Chipper Jones). Great OPS, but only hits lefties. Looking for platoon-mate.
Cracking The Safe - Richie Sexson(Jeff Kent). Gets a DH when he need a 2B. Odd pick.
Sodo Oh No - Jeff Kent(Mike Piazza). Thrilled to have Kent fall into his lap, and it moves them into favorite role.
San Shin - Barry Zito(Richie Sexson). Sexson gone, so gets the best lefty available.
What the? - Preston Wilson(Larry Walker). Right team, wrong player, and this team still needs a RF.
116 - Mark Loretta(Preston Wilson). Preston & Kent gone, go for the best 2B on the board.
The Safe - Derrek Lee(Scott Podsednik). Picked up speed and a first baseman they needed who is also an awesome fielder. Nice pick.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 8:
1. SodoOhNo - Kent pick rounds out stellar hitting infield of ARod, Kent, Giambi
2. SanShin - Schmidt and Zito anchor staff.
3. Fire Bavasi - Webb may be the staff ace.
4. Weekly - chemistry issues with Juan Gone and Man Ram in same outfield
5. Musings - Wells, Drew, Sheffield a solid OF.
6. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins) - 2 pitchers
7. Cracking - Sexson a big bat, but will regret not picking up Kent.
8. The Safe - since Ichiro, nothing but nice picks so time to start moving them up.
9. M.O. - will need platoon-mate for Stairs to work this out
10. What The? - Left and Center fielders galore...
Rounds 5-7
Wow, what a weekend - a Friday Night beer buzz leads to me picking up John Smoltz as my closer when I could not decide on the next hitter to take, and a Saturday/Sunday of pink eye hitting my family leads to no blogging over the weekend. In case you missed it, Mike at San Shin has posted the following updated FAQ about the rules. After the Smoltz mistake, I went for some positional flexibility grabbing top-hitting outfielder Jose Guillen, who also rates a 4 (out of 5) in both left field and right fields. Then, in Round 7, I picked up Alex Cintron who was the top OPS SS or 3B and can play both, as well as 2B.
Most everybody is feeling good about their teams right now. I have to get a 1B, SS/3B and LF/RF and fill my pitching staff at this point. San Shin continues to get the best value per pick, but the simulation aspect means that The Safe may have grabbed the best closer in Rafael Soriano, and Johan Santana should be a stud for Fire Bavasi. Milton Bradley and Morgan Ensberg are other relative unknowns that look like good picks given that their reduced playing time in 2003 will not reoccur in simulation.
I feel like mixing things up a bit so I'm gonna punish the 116'ers for picking Josh Beckett and move myself up a bit. I'd rather have most other teams for their 2004 possibilities, but I like mine for 2003.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 7:
1. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles, RF Ordonez, 2B Soriano, 3B Lowell) - 1 pitcher
2. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo, LF Gonzalez, 3B Ensberg, 1B Giambi) - 1 pitcher
3. Weekly (RF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez, RP Wagner, DH Ortiz, SP Oswalt) - 3 pitchers
4. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana, SS Jeter, 2B Vidro, C Varitek) - 2 pitchers
5. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas, 3B Chavez, SP Mulder, SP Wood) - 2 pitchers
6. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran, RP Smoltz, LF/RF Guillen, SS/3B/2B Cintron) - 1 closer
7. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins) - 2 pitchers
8. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff, CF Anderson, LF/RF Sanders, CF Bradley) - 1 pitcher
9. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina, LF/CF Berkman, 1B/3B/LF DYoung, C IRod) - 2 starters + closer
10. The Safe (RF Ichiro, RF Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer, SS Tejada, 1B/2B Blalock, RP Soriano) - 2 starters + closer
Round 4
Four pitchers, three outfielders, Nomar, Aubrey Huff, and Frank Thomas. All of the position players, with the exception of Huff were the player I had rated highest at their position when they were picked. Huff has the advantage of playing three positions, 1B, 3B, RF. San Shin continues to impress, grabbing the best player on the board for the third time in four rounds (with the exception of Mora). It may have been early for Hidalgo, so I'm knocking Sodo down a notch. I like the Johan Santana pickup by Fire Bavasi.
I predict San Shin picks up Magglio Ordonez because that's who I want next.
Mariner Musings and I remain firmly off the pitching bandwagon.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 4:
1. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles)
2. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo)
3. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar)
4. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana)
5. Weekly (RF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez)
6. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas)
7. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina)
8. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran)
9. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff)
10. The Safe (RF Ichiro, DH Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer)
Round 3
The first closer is taken in Eric Gagne, as the 23rd pick overall by What the Hell. I can't argue with the pick because I don't know whether pitching or hitting will win out in these simulations (does good pitching beat good hitting?), and it is their second pitcher. But I still have a problem using my 3rd round pick on a guy who won't pitch more than 70 innings. I also have a problem with closers making $8M per season, too, so that's just me.
Melvin Mora had the second lowest OPS of any hitter taken in the round, but his positional flexibility covering 2B, SS, LF, and CF may be very valuable in this league. With only 25 players, and having to cover injuries, flexibility may be critical. Mariner Musings and I remain the only two teams without a pitcher, so we continue to work from the same playbook (if Marcus Giles, had been taken, I would have grabbed his Vernon Wells).
I probably should have taken Scott Rolen over Giles, as Rolen was by far the best 3B hitter and fielder. I hoped that he would return to be, but unfortunately, Fire Bavasi beat me to the punch. Now, 3B slides down in priority as the next bunch of players at 3B have similar abilities.
Predicted Standings after Round Three: 1. SanShin, 2. SodoOhNo, 3. 116ers, 4. Musings, 5. What The?, 6. Fire Bavasi, 7. Weekly, 8. Cracking, 9. M.O. , 10. The Safe
Round 2
Damn, Peter White and I must use the same cheatsheet, as I was wanting to pick Bret Boone, but he snatched him before me. I'm about to do something silly, but the website is down for the moment giving me time to reconsider. I'm about to claim Jorge Posada as my second catcher, knowing I'll have the only two catchers with OPS over 900 on my team, I'll do what the Orioles considered doing, rotating them between catcher and DH.
What the heck?!?
Yup, I did it. I will be the only owner with a silly strategy like cornering the catcher market in the first two rounds.
Pitchers start to go in the second round with Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay, Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza, and Tim Hudson going in that order. You can't argue too much with any of these selections, but I would have taken Hudson or Kevin Brown as my first pitcher (Brown goes early in 3rd round to The Safe who begins to redeem himself nicely). I'm not sure how pitcher health is gonna factor into this season. Will Pedro again only pitch 180 innings, or might he go longer? Or shorter? Hard to know for sure and that weighs heavily on deciding between Halladay (266 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and say, Pedro (186, 2.23, 1.03).
The other three picks were outfielders - Vladamir Guerrero, Jim Edmonds, and The Safe finishing the round with Trot Nixon. I would not have picked Nixon this early, and The Safe now has two rightfielders, so maybe they are cornering the market in RF as I did at C. Four RF's are gone (Sheffield, Vlad, Ichiro, and Nixon), so this may put pressure on teams to grab a RF early. I don't know if Diamond Mind will allow these guys to be moved to LF or CF and if so, what the effect on their fielding will be. Otherwise, The Safe has got their DH early. Anyone with answers, add your comments below!
Round 1
The Mariners Blogsphere Simulated Baseball League draft has begun. You can see the draft unfold at its current glacial pace by clicking on the link. I'm going to comment on my picks and those of others here. Click on the link on the right to get back to this post where it will be updated as it continues. And please feel free to add comments to this blog entry to discuss what you would have done differently.
First, remember that a player's performance in 2003 will determine how that player performs in this Diamond Mind league. There is no need for projections. This is about building the best team knowing exactly how your players will perform.
With that knowledge, it is stunning that Ichiro Suzuki was the first pick by The Safe. Now Ichiro is a nice player and his defensive rating in RF of 5e36 (format is XeY where X is a range factor from 1-5 and Y is the percentage of an average player that errors occur, so the lower the better). But with a 2003 OPS of 783, he is shaky as the man to build your team around.
The first round had several other surprises. Barry Bonds, and his obscene 1271 OPS slid all the way to 4th where San Shin smiled and said 'Thank you very much.' This allowed the 2003 AL MVP, Alex Rodriguez, to go to the host Sodo Oh No squad. This happened because Albert Pujols went 2nd and Todd Helton went 3rd to the Onesixteeners and What the Hell Happened respectively. Hard to argue with either pick on its own except when Barry Bonds is available.
Mark Prior was the only pitcher taken in the first round, going as the 10th pick to Fire Bavasi. If I'm building a team, I've got to get a few hitters before I go after a pitcher unless they are far and above the rest of the crowd. Prior is nice, but its hard to differentiate him from other top pitchers like Pedro, Brown, Schmidt, etc... Because this is a snake draft, and the 10th pick in one round is the first pick in the next, I might have considered starting a pitching run and grabbing two pitchers. We'll see if The Safe has those thoughts when it gets back to him.
Your Mariner Optimist was considering Gary Sheffield (who was picked right after my pick by Mariner Musings), but eventually decided to go with positional scarcity at catcher and took Javy Lopez and his 1067 OPS. Jorge Posado is the next best hitting catcher with an OPS of 915, so the differential was more substantial than Sheffield vs other outfielders. I was concerned with taking a catcher when they get 100-150 fewer plate appearances than other positions. We're hoping that in a DH league, we can give Lopez extra at bats in the DH slot. Like many of the owners, I'm hindered by my lack of knowledge as to how Diamond Mind works, but I think this will be possible.
Predicted Standings after Round One: 1. SanShin, 2. SodoOhNo, 3. 116ers, 4. What The?, 5. M.O., 6. Musings, 7. Weekly, 8. Cracking, 9. Fire Bavasi, 10. The Safe
And here is FAQ 1 posted on 2/7 and FAQ 2 posted on 2/17 (better late than never!)
Rounds 14-16 (waiting for last two picks)
Well, as I wrote in my summary of my LIMA time strategy, it looks like Fire Bavasi is in good shape, as Johan Santana can start games even though the MBSBL website only lists him as a reliever. Essentially, any pitcher who started a single game may be a starter. This certainly strengthens FB in my eyes, and probably moves them into the top 3.
Rounds 14-16 were all about pitching, primarily picking up relievers. Of the first 28 players taken, 14 can only be used as relievers, 8 starters, and only 6 were position players. Even three of the starters acquired were primarily relievers.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 16 (Ranking after Round 13 in paren) with commentary on their 14-16 round picks.
1(2). SanShin - Kevin Gregg, Matt Mantei, Tim Spooneybarger. Gregg's OBP against of 278 was the lowest value for a starter (other than the reliever/starters who had not been identified yet), and Mantei has a stellar 259 OBP against. San Shin definitely continues to weigh OBP over SLG against, while I'm taking the opposite approach, so it will be interesting to compare the stats of our bullpen at year end. Spooneybarger had the top splits in a reliever (190/245/254/499) and I can't believe he lasted this long. Interesting that he is a Righty who gets lefties out MUCH better (417 OPS vs 567 OPS). Very nice pick.
2(1). SodoOhNo - Eddie Guardado, Joe Borowski, Julio Mateo. Two of the top relievers out there, gives Sodo a nice closer in Borowski and a lefty setup guy in Guardado. Guardado was the third best lefty reliever and the top two were taken just before, so Sodo closed the run on lefty relievers nicely. Mateo is a stretch with his 220/257/382/640 line. That SLG against makes me nervous and the difference between Mateo & Spooneybarger cost Sodo Oh No #1 in my book. They're that close.
3(4). Fire Bavasi - Ryan Klesko, Matt Morris, Scot Shields. Klesko's righty mashing completes a very nice 1B platoon. Shields and Morris are two of the top starting pitchers available and round out a frightening 5-man rotation with Prior, Santana, and Webb for the FB.
4(5). Cracking - Damaso Marte, Byung-Hyun Kim, Brian Jordan. Well, I beat him to Rheal Cormier (245 OPS against), so he settled for the #2 lefty reliever in Marte (270 OPS against). But got revenge by snagging Kim and his beautiful 221/288/341/629 line to probably be his staff ace. Jordan's 1131 OPS against lefties and outfield flexibility make him a fantastic addition that, of course, I hoped would fall to me next round. Cracking and I are using the same cheat sheet :-)
5(3). 116ers - Brendan Donnelly, Miguel Batista. Donnelly was the best righty reliever on the board at the time (maybe behind Ryan Wagner), but there were better options than Batista. Donnelly may act as the 116ers closer.
6(8). M.O. - Rheal Cormier, Oscar Villarreal, Ryan Wagner. The top lefty reliever in Cormier (182/245/269/514), top righty reliever in Wagner(173/284/267/551) and the top starter in Villarreal (222/306/310/616). The big risk is that Villarreal's ONLY "start" lasted only 3 innings and I don't know if Diamond Mind has a fatigue factor.
7(7). What The? - Miguel Cabrera, Latroy Hawkins, Doug Waechter. Cabrera mashes lefties (364/397/655/1052) and plays a decent 3B, but might need a platoon partner for his 739 OPS against righties. Latroy was probably the second worst reliever taken, but he's still pretty good. Waechter is a very nice starter with a 225/310/364/675 line and who can forget how he shut down the M's in September.
8(6). Musings - Darrell May, David Riske, Mike Bordick. May is solid and while his 246/290/435/725 does not look as good as some others, he does pitch in Kaufmann stadium. I need to find some ballpark-neutral splits. Riske (196/256/336/592) is a solid reliever. Bordick hits lefties to the tune of 347/441/537/978 and plays great defense at three positions, but Musings will need a platoon partner to avoid his 600 OPS against righties.
9(10). Weekly - Rafael Furcal, Vicente Padilla, Paul Quantrill. Furcal is the weakest starting shortstop in the league, but he's fast. Padilla was the worst starter taken (251/313/413/726) but is a very solid #5, and Paul Quantrill is a top reliever (227/271/290/561).
10(9). The Safe - Matthew Lecroy, Shigetoshi Hasegawa. And here is the worst reliever taken so far. Not only is Hasegawa's 235/283/337/620 line 20 points worse in OPS than anyone else, but it was also put up in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks, and should suffer further in a neutral field. Lecroy was the best catcher available, but the worst catcher that will start for any team.
Rounds 11-13
The Mariner Optimist had a plan. Load up on offense where every player in the lineup had an OPS of 900 or better. To do this would require a platoon. Looking at where we stand after 13 rounds, I'm almost there.
The more subtle part of my plan was to wait and hope that after I had acquired my offense, that my top pitching picks would still be on the board. And they would be the best pitchers in the league. Why? Because they had pitched so few innings, most people would overlook them as relievers, or worry about injuries. But this simulation is specifically set up to make anyone rated "starter" eligible to start all season long, and no injuries will occur. Will they tire quickly? Maybe, that is certainly the risk.
Unfortunately, San Shin and Sodo Oh No beat me to the punch, first grabbing Wilson Alvarez, and then a mere three picks before I was ready to strike grabbing my #2 and #3 choices in the brothers Jose - Acevedo and Contreras. So I settled for choices #4 and #5 in Tony Armas and Eric Dubose.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 13 (previous ranking in paren) with commentary on their 11-13 round picks.
1(1). SodoOhNo - Contreras, Bagwell, Clemens. Clemens is a nice pitcher with 694 OPS against, 1.22 WHIP and great K/9, and he is Sodo's #4 starter. Bagwell fills their one hole at 1B perfectly, moving Giambi to DH where he belongs. This team is stacked, and other than catcher has no need for platoons.
2(2). SanShin - Acevedo, Jason Phillips, Jose Valverde. Its a Jose run for San Shin, who goes for the top OPS against reliever (a meager 489) as I predicted they would. Hopefully, I throw a wrench in their plans by grabbing the top OPS lefty reliever in Rheal Cormier, but I'm sure they will survive.
3(6). 116ers - Mike Piazza, Mike Sweeney, Eduardo Perez. Perez kills lefties to a 1200+ OPS and plays 4 positions so he's nice to have around and he'll probably platoon at DH with Sweeney to make a potent hitter. Piazza has been the top catcher on the board for awhile now and will remain healthy in simulation.
4(3). Fire Bavasi - Mike Cameron, Cliff Floyd, Octavio Dotel. Dotel is a great reliever (552 OPS against), but if FB was planning on starting him, they may be in trouble. Floyd moves Chipper nicely to DH and Cameron will have a lot of ground to cover to make up for being the worst offensive player taken in the draft with a 775 OPS.
5(7). Cracking - Mark Redman, Keith Foulke, Luis Castillo. Redman was a fantastic pick as the best lefty starter available and Foulke is a good closer. Castillo had some pop last year, but was caught stealing in almost half his attempts. Will be interesting to see if that is used against him.
6(5). Musings - Mike Lieberthal, Larry Walker, Kip Wells. No complaints here - a top catcher, DH and pitcher are all solid picks for Musings. Looking forward to seeing him finally pick up a shortstop.
7(8). What The? - Orlando Cabrera, Carl Everett, Guillermo Mota. Cabrera was the top SS on the board, has speed, good D and no need to platoon him. I hope the M's make a run on him next year. Everett is a nice basher in the outfield and Mota is one of the top relievers with a 552 OPS against.
8(10). M.O. - Armas and Dubose form a nice 1-2 Righty-Lefty punch in the rotation and Phil Nevin will partner with Matt Stairs to create a Bondsian platoon at 1B.
9(9). The Safe - Ray Durham, Tike Redman, Edwin Jackson. Edwin had a nice 669 OPS against but the others fail to impress enough to move the Safe up.
10(4). Weekly - Aaron Boone, A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Grudzielanek. A team that looked great three rounds ago looks a lot less formidable. As opposed to outfielders ManRam and JuanGone, these infielders can field, but they are the worst hitting infielders in the league at this point. But all three still hit better than Cameron.
Round 10
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
Fire Bavasi - Craig Wilson (Craig Wilson) - got one, and I think this is a nice pickup for F.B.
Mariners Weekly - Andruw Jones(Jay Payton) - Jones is probably better than Payton, but I wonder if Podsednik is not better than both. Either way MW needs to make his pick quicker as this one took about 18 hours.
Mariners Musings - C.C. Sabathia (Mike Piazza) - steals the top VORP starting pitcher from San Shin. Good to know someone is reading this :-)
Mariner Optimist - Bobby Abreu(Bobby Abreu) - will this guy ever take a starting pitcher? The lineup will have no weak spots from top to bottom.
Cracking The Safe - Jason Kendall(Keith Foulke) - I meant, starting a catcher run, but why Kendall - there are several catchers with better EqA, OPS..
Sodo Oh No - Greg Myers (Matt Mantei). Catcher run/Closer run, what's the difference? Best catcher out there against righties but needs platoon-mate.
San Shin - Edgar Martinez (C.C. Sabathia) - I like that Edgar guy - thought he would go to the Safe in round 11.
What the? - Placido Polanco (Rafael Furcal) - positional flexibility with similar OPS as Furcal.
116 - Scott Podsednik (Eddie Guardado) - Finally, someone has been reading my picks, but this team needs
The Safe - Jay Payton (Jay Payton) - Hmm.. I had Payton going twice in this round but only once I was wrong. We'll see how he translates outside Coors.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 10:
1. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo, LF Gonzalez, 3B Ensberg, 1B Giambi, 2B Kent, SP Alvarez, C Myers) - 2 pitcher
2. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles, RF Ordonez, 2B Soriano, 3B Lowell, SP Zito, 1B NJohnson, DH Edgar) - 1 pitcher
3. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana, SS Jeter, 2B Vidro, C Varitek, SP Webb, LF Chipper, 1B CWilson) - 3 pitchers
4. Weekly (LF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez, RP Wagner, DH Ortiz, SP Oswalt, RF JuanGone, SP Zambrano, CF AJones) - 4 pitchers + closer
5. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas, 3B Chavez, SP Mulder, SP Wood, LF Drew, RP Rivera, SP Sabathia) - 2 pitchers + closer
6. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins, 3B Loretta, SP Livan, CF Podsednik) - 3 pitchers
7. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff, CF Anderson, LF/RF Sanders, CF Bradley, 1B Sexson, SP Nomo, C Kendall) - 2 pitchers
8. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina, LF/CF Berkman, 1B/3B/LF DYoung, C IRod, CF PWilson, SP Colon, 2B/3B Polanco) - 3 starters + closer
9. The Safe (RF Ichiro, RF Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer, SS Tejada, 1B/2B Blalock, RP Soriano, 1B DLee, SP Willis, OF Payton) - 3 starters + closer
10. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran, RP Smoltz, LF/RF Guillen, SS/3B/2B Cintron, 1B/LF/RF Stairs, 3B Koskie, RF Abreu) - closer
Round 9
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
The Safe - Dontrelle Willis(Carlos Zambrano) - Willis may have been the best lefty out there after Alvarez.
116 - Livan Hernandez(Scott Podsednik) - Admittedly my guess was a throwaway - and 116 probably saw that WTTH was gonna take Livan, so he scooped him up.
What the? - Bartolo Colon(Livan Hernandez) - Livan was gone, so went for next best WHIP out there in Colon.
San Shin - Nick Johnson(Mike Piazza) - Catchers get no love here, and Jeff scoops up the top 1B against RHP. Nice pick.
Sodo Oh No - Wilson Alvarez(Greg Myers) - May be the best pitcher in the league, depending on how Diamond Mind handles fact he only pitched 95 innings - 2.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Very nice.
Cracking The Safe - Hideo Nomo(Placido Polanco) - Its officially a pitcher run!
Mariner Optimist - Corey Koskie(Chipper Jones) - Couldn't grab Chipper when there are still lots of OF, but the drop off against RHP between Koskie and #2 Aaron Boone was 147 OPS points.
Mariners Musings - Mariano Rivera(Orlando Cabrera) - We have our fourth closer.
Mariners Weekly - Carlos Zambrano(Jay Payton) - back to the pitcher run. Pitchers? Who needs em?
Fire Bavasi - Chipper Jones(Cliff Floyd) - I guess I'll end up with Floyd in a round or two...
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 9:
1. SodoOhNo - Wilson freakin Alvarez for MBSBL Cy Young?
2. SanShin - May need a platoon-mate for Nick Johnson at 1B.
3. Fire Bavasi - Chipper has no glove, but a great bat for round 9.
4. 116ers - Livan had a helluva season last year.
5. Weekly - Zambrano had worst WHIP of the 6 starters taken this round.
6. Musings - Mariano a damn nice closer.
7. Cracking - Nomo best ERA of the 6 starters taken this round.
8. M.O. - Koskie continues strong offense
9. The Safe - Don't like Willis over some of the other pitchers here.
10. What The? - No harm in adding Colon
Round 8
Team - Actual Pick (my guess) - commentary
Fire Bavasi - Brandon Webb (Brandon Webb) - best pitcher out there. Great pick.
Mariners Weekly - Juan Gonzalez (Matt Stairs) - Fields like Stairs without the errors, hits lefties & righties
Mariners Musings - J.D. Drew(Bartolo Colon). A healthy J.D. Drew for a year... I think that even with injuries off, Drew will pull a hammy...
Mariner Optimist - Matt Stairs(Chipper Jones). Great OPS, but only hits lefties. Looking for platoon-mate.
Cracking The Safe - Richie Sexson(Jeff Kent). Gets a DH when he need a 2B. Odd pick.
Sodo Oh No - Jeff Kent(Mike Piazza). Thrilled to have Kent fall into his lap, and it moves them into favorite role.
San Shin - Barry Zito(Richie Sexson). Sexson gone, so gets the best lefty available.
What the? - Preston Wilson(Larry Walker). Right team, wrong player, and this team still needs a RF.
116 - Mark Loretta(Preston Wilson). Preston & Kent gone, go for the best 2B on the board.
The Safe - Derrek Lee(Scott Podsednik). Picked up speed and a first baseman they needed who is also an awesome fielder. Nice pick.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 8:
1. SodoOhNo - Kent pick rounds out stellar hitting infield of ARod, Kent, Giambi
2. SanShin - Schmidt and Zito anchor staff.
3. Fire Bavasi - Webb may be the staff ace.
4. Weekly - chemistry issues with Juan Gone and Man Ram in same outfield
5. Musings - Wells, Drew, Sheffield a solid OF.
6. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins) - 2 pitchers
7. Cracking - Sexson a big bat, but will regret not picking up Kent.
8. The Safe - since Ichiro, nothing but nice picks so time to start moving them up.
9. M.O. - will need platoon-mate for Stairs to work this out
10. What The? - Left and Center fielders galore...
Rounds 5-7
Wow, what a weekend - a Friday Night beer buzz leads to me picking up John Smoltz as my closer when I could not decide on the next hitter to take, and a Saturday/Sunday of pink eye hitting my family leads to no blogging over the weekend. In case you missed it, Mike at San Shin has posted the following updated FAQ about the rules. After the Smoltz mistake, I went for some positional flexibility grabbing top-hitting outfielder Jose Guillen, who also rates a 4 (out of 5) in both left field and right fields. Then, in Round 7, I picked up Alex Cintron who was the top OPS SS or 3B and can play both, as well as 2B.
Most everybody is feeling good about their teams right now. I have to get a 1B, SS/3B and LF/RF and fill my pitching staff at this point. San Shin continues to get the best value per pick, but the simulation aspect means that The Safe may have grabbed the best closer in Rafael Soriano, and Johan Santana should be a stud for Fire Bavasi. Milton Bradley and Morgan Ensberg are other relative unknowns that look like good picks given that their reduced playing time in 2003 will not reoccur in simulation.
I feel like mixing things up a bit so I'm gonna punish the 116'ers for picking Josh Beckett and move myself up a bit. I'd rather have most other teams for their 2004 possibilities, but I like mine for 2003.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 7:
1. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles, RF Ordonez, 2B Soriano, 3B Lowell) - 1 pitcher
2. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo, LF Gonzalez, 3B Ensberg, 1B Giambi) - 1 pitcher
3. Weekly (RF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez, RP Wagner, DH Ortiz, SP Oswalt) - 3 pitchers
4. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana, SS Jeter, 2B Vidro, C Varitek) - 2 pitchers
5. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas, 3B Chavez, SP Mulder, SP Wood) - 2 pitchers
6. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran, RP Smoltz, LF/RF Guillen, SS/3B/2B Cintron) - 1 closer
7. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar, SP Beckett, RF Sosa, LF Jenkins) - 2 pitchers
8. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff, CF Anderson, LF/RF Sanders, CF Bradley) - 1 pitcher
9. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina, LF/CF Berkman, 1B/3B/LF DYoung, C IRod) - 2 starters + closer
10. The Safe (RF Ichiro, RF Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer, SS Tejada, 1B/2B Blalock, RP Soriano) - 2 starters + closer
Round 4
Four pitchers, three outfielders, Nomar, Aubrey Huff, and Frank Thomas. All of the position players, with the exception of Huff were the player I had rated highest at their position when they were picked. Huff has the advantage of playing three positions, 1B, 3B, RF. San Shin continues to impress, grabbing the best player on the board for the third time in four rounds (with the exception of Mora). It may have been early for Hidalgo, so I'm knocking Sodo down a notch. I like the Johan Santana pickup by Fire Bavasi.
I predict San Shin picks up Magglio Ordonez because that's who I want next.
Mariner Musings and I remain firmly off the pitching bandwagon.
Roster/Predicted finish after Round 4:
1. SanShin (RF Bonds, SP Schmidt, SS Mora, LF B.Giles)
2. SodoOhNo(SS ARod, CF Edmonds, SP Schilling, RF Hidalgo)
3. 116ers (1B Pujols, SP Hudson, 3B Mueller, SS Nomar)
4. Fire Bavasi (SP Prior, RF Vlad, 3B Rolen, SP Santana)
5. Weekly (RF Manny, SP Pedro, 1B Thome, SP Vazquez)
6. Musings (RF Sheffield, 2B Boone, CF Wells, 1B/DH Thomas)
7. What The? (1B Helton, SP Loaiza, RP Gagne, SP Mussina)
8. M.O. (C Lopez, DH Posada, 2B M.Giles, CF Beltran)
9. Cracking (1B Delgado, SP Halladay, SS Renteria, RF Huff)
10. The Safe (RF Ichiro, DH Nixon, SP Brown, SP Moyer)
Round 3
The first closer is taken in Eric Gagne, as the 23rd pick overall by What the Hell. I can't argue with the pick because I don't know whether pitching or hitting will win out in these simulations (does good pitching beat good hitting?), and it is their second pitcher. But I still have a problem using my 3rd round pick on a guy who won't pitch more than 70 innings. I also have a problem with closers making $8M per season, too, so that's just me.
Melvin Mora had the second lowest OPS of any hitter taken in the round, but his positional flexibility covering 2B, SS, LF, and CF may be very valuable in this league. With only 25 players, and having to cover injuries, flexibility may be critical. Mariner Musings and I remain the only two teams without a pitcher, so we continue to work from the same playbook (if Marcus Giles, had been taken, I would have grabbed his Vernon Wells).
I probably should have taken Scott Rolen over Giles, as Rolen was by far the best 3B hitter and fielder. I hoped that he would return to be, but unfortunately, Fire Bavasi beat me to the punch. Now, 3B slides down in priority as the next bunch of players at 3B have similar abilities.
Predicted Standings after Round Three: 1. SanShin, 2. SodoOhNo, 3. 116ers, 4. Musings, 5. What The?, 6. Fire Bavasi, 7. Weekly, 8. Cracking, 9. M.O. , 10. The Safe
Round 2
Damn, Peter White and I must use the same cheatsheet, as I was wanting to pick Bret Boone, but he snatched him before me. I'm about to do something silly, but the website is down for the moment giving me time to reconsider. I'm about to claim Jorge Posada as my second catcher, knowing I'll have the only two catchers with OPS over 900 on my team, I'll do what the Orioles considered doing, rotating them between catcher and DH.
What the heck?!?
Yup, I did it. I will be the only owner with a silly strategy like cornering the catcher market in the first two rounds.
Pitchers start to go in the second round with Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay, Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza, and Tim Hudson going in that order. You can't argue too much with any of these selections, but I would have taken Hudson or Kevin Brown as my first pitcher (Brown goes early in 3rd round to The Safe who begins to redeem himself nicely). I'm not sure how pitcher health is gonna factor into this season. Will Pedro again only pitch 180 innings, or might he go longer? Or shorter? Hard to know for sure and that weighs heavily on deciding between Halladay (266 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) and say, Pedro (186, 2.23, 1.03).
The other three picks were outfielders - Vladamir Guerrero, Jim Edmonds, and The Safe finishing the round with Trot Nixon. I would not have picked Nixon this early, and The Safe now has two rightfielders, so maybe they are cornering the market in RF as I did at C. Four RF's are gone (Sheffield, Vlad, Ichiro, and Nixon), so this may put pressure on teams to grab a RF early. I don't know if Diamond Mind will allow these guys to be moved to LF or CF and if so, what the effect on their fielding will be. Otherwise, The Safe has got their DH early. Anyone with answers, add your comments below!
Round 1
The Mariners Blogsphere Simulated Baseball League draft has begun. You can see the draft unfold at its current glacial pace by clicking on the link. I'm going to comment on my picks and those of others here. Click on the link on the right to get back to this post where it will be updated as it continues. And please feel free to add comments to this blog entry to discuss what you would have done differently.
First, remember that a player's performance in 2003 will determine how that player performs in this Diamond Mind league. There is no need for projections. This is about building the best team knowing exactly how your players will perform.
With that knowledge, it is stunning that Ichiro Suzuki was the first pick by The Safe. Now Ichiro is a nice player and his defensive rating in RF of 5e36 (format is XeY where X is a range factor from 1-5 and Y is the percentage of an average player that errors occur, so the lower the better). But with a 2003 OPS of 783, he is shaky as the man to build your team around.
The first round had several other surprises. Barry Bonds, and his obscene 1271 OPS slid all the way to 4th where San Shin smiled and said 'Thank you very much.' This allowed the 2003 AL MVP, Alex Rodriguez, to go to the host Sodo Oh No squad. This happened because Albert Pujols went 2nd and Todd Helton went 3rd to the Onesixteeners and What the Hell Happened respectively. Hard to argue with either pick on its own except when Barry Bonds is available.
Mark Prior was the only pitcher taken in the first round, going as the 10th pick to Fire Bavasi. If I'm building a team, I've got to get a few hitters before I go after a pitcher unless they are far and above the rest of the crowd. Prior is nice, but its hard to differentiate him from other top pitchers like Pedro, Brown, Schmidt, etc... Because this is a snake draft, and the 10th pick in one round is the first pick in the next, I might have considered starting a pitching run and grabbing two pitchers. We'll see if The Safe has those thoughts when it gets back to him.
Your Mariner Optimist was considering Gary Sheffield (who was picked right after my pick by Mariner Musings), but eventually decided to go with positional scarcity at catcher and took Javy Lopez and his 1067 OPS. Jorge Posado is the next best hitting catcher with an OPS of 915, so the differential was more substantial than Sheffield vs other outfielders. I was concerned with taking a catcher when they get 100-150 fewer plate appearances than other positions. We're hoping that in a DH league, we can give Lopez extra at bats in the DH slot. Like many of the owners, I'm hindered by my lack of knowledge as to how Diamond Mind works, but I think this will be possible.
Predicted Standings after Round One: 1. SanShin, 2. SodoOhNo, 3. 116ers, 4. What The?, 5. M.O., 6. Musings, 7. Weekly, 8. Cracking, 9. Fire Bavasi, 10. The Safe
Rice Owls Big Three
Two great articles on the Rice triumvarate of Jeff Niemann (17-0, 1.70 ERA in 2003), Wade Townsend (11-2, 2.20), and Philip Humber (11-3, 3.30) as they aspire to the claim of greatest college pitching trio of all time.
Baseball America publishes an article from Brian McTaggert, who covers the Owls for the Houston chronicle. This tells each player's story, and includes snippets from interviews with all three and Coach Wayne Graham.
The three are projected to be first round picks after this season, and all three could go in the Top 5!
“It’s pretty exciting for all of us,” Humber says. “Not just the draft part of it, but we do want to be the greatest rotation in the history of college baseball. I felt like all four of us (including junior righthander Josh Baker, who went 8-0) want to do that, and it’s something we can achieve. I don’t think we’ve achieved it yet.”
But if they come anywhere close to the numbers they posted last year, it would be hard to deny them. Niemann went 17-0, 1.70 with 156 strikeouts in 119 innings. Townsend was 11-2, 2.20 with five saves and 164 strikeouts in 137 innings. Humber went 11-3, 3.30 with 138 strikeouts in 128 innings.
“Last year was a good year, but we all learned from last year and all have grown,” Niemann says. “Hopefully we can perform at a high level this year. To the outside that might be crazy, but we’re all learning and constantly trying to get better. We want to build on last year.”
Thomas Ayers at BallparkAnalysis.com saw the article and wrote "The New Big Three", which compares the Rice trio to other successful college pitching trios, and to examine how the trio might fare in the major leagues. It is not the most thorough article in the world, but its interesting to see the stats of the Rice three next to others that were considered great. Ayers concludes his article with...
First of all, I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, and that predicting pitchers is a high-risk activity, but I was still suprised to see some of the huge failure rates, especially when you have multiple pitchers involved. I know this selection is somewhat biased by the fact we are looking at great pitching trios, and not individual pitchers themselves, but still I was suprised to see only 8 of 33 (if we discount the 3 from the 2000 South Carolina class) managed to finish their careers with adjusted ERAs better than the league average. If you define that as "success", then even some of the best college pitching tandems have a success rate below 25%. Also, 10 of the 33 had adjusted ERAs below 50 or never pitched in the majors, which you could certainly define as an outright failure.
Obviously, Clemens is the best pitcher of the 33 looked at, and is the only one to reach a consistant all-star status. However, if you want to look at a class that is balanced throughout in which all members acheived success, than the 1968 Trojans, who I wasn't even overly impressed with when I first looked at them, are probably the best of the bunch. Well, possbily the 1989 Louisiana State group is the best, depending on how much weight you want to give to longevity. I know I'm going to extremely simply things here but you are basically debating between 4,000 innnings of 106 ERA+ or 2,000 innings of 116 ERA+. These are definately the two most balanced classes, and I'd argue in favour of the Louisiana State one, come to think about it, trusting my ability to find average, or near-average, pitching through cheap means.
It's tough to say what the future holds for the Rice Trio. I can't tell you what they need to do to become the best college pitching trip ever, as I don't follow college baseball enough to know different divisions and schedules, and I think that would have to be considered in one's evaluation to some degree. Based on the stats here, and all the pitchers should improve, or at least stay the same, they are better than, or match up equally well, to any of the trios listed. I do encourage you, if you are in the area, to go take a look at any of these three pitchers. I'd certainly jump at the chance. I do think that all three will be drafted in the first round, and the first half of the first round if they all have reasonably successful years, and will become the first set of three pitcher college teammates to do that.
Looking at the above it seems improbable that all three will go onto successful careers in the major leagues, but its quite possible that they all will at least get a cup of coffee in the major leagues, barring injury. I don't forsee them becoming the Trojans of 1978, and I think at least one, and I might guess two, of them will go onto have a successful big league careers, but I couldn't tell you which one at this point. A large part of determing that probably lies with projectability and mechanics, neither of which I have immediate access to, nor great knowledge of. That decision is what people getting paid a lot more money than me, and with more time on their hands, have as their job. And hey, I was really high on Bobby Bradley a few years ago, so what do I know?
In other words, enjoy watching these three while you can. They may not end up major leaguers, but they may put in a second dominating season for your defending NCAA Champion Rice Owls!
Baseball America publishes an article from Brian McTaggert, who covers the Owls for the Houston chronicle. This tells each player's story, and includes snippets from interviews with all three and Coach Wayne Graham.
The three are projected to be first round picks after this season, and all three could go in the Top 5!
“It’s pretty exciting for all of us,” Humber says. “Not just the draft part of it, but we do want to be the greatest rotation in the history of college baseball. I felt like all four of us (including junior righthander Josh Baker, who went 8-0) want to do that, and it’s something we can achieve. I don’t think we’ve achieved it yet.”
But if they come anywhere close to the numbers they posted last year, it would be hard to deny them. Niemann went 17-0, 1.70 with 156 strikeouts in 119 innings. Townsend was 11-2, 2.20 with five saves and 164 strikeouts in 137 innings. Humber went 11-3, 3.30 with 138 strikeouts in 128 innings.
“Last year was a good year, but we all learned from last year and all have grown,” Niemann says. “Hopefully we can perform at a high level this year. To the outside that might be crazy, but we’re all learning and constantly trying to get better. We want to build on last year.”
Thomas Ayers at BallparkAnalysis.com saw the article and wrote "The New Big Three", which compares the Rice trio to other successful college pitching trios, and to examine how the trio might fare in the major leagues. It is not the most thorough article in the world, but its interesting to see the stats of the Rice three next to others that were considered great. Ayers concludes his article with...
First of all, I know there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, and that predicting pitchers is a high-risk activity, but I was still suprised to see some of the huge failure rates, especially when you have multiple pitchers involved. I know this selection is somewhat biased by the fact we are looking at great pitching trios, and not individual pitchers themselves, but still I was suprised to see only 8 of 33 (if we discount the 3 from the 2000 South Carolina class) managed to finish their careers with adjusted ERAs better than the league average. If you define that as "success", then even some of the best college pitching tandems have a success rate below 25%. Also, 10 of the 33 had adjusted ERAs below 50 or never pitched in the majors, which you could certainly define as an outright failure.
Obviously, Clemens is the best pitcher of the 33 looked at, and is the only one to reach a consistant all-star status. However, if you want to look at a class that is balanced throughout in which all members acheived success, than the 1968 Trojans, who I wasn't even overly impressed with when I first looked at them, are probably the best of the bunch. Well, possbily the 1989 Louisiana State group is the best, depending on how much weight you want to give to longevity. I know I'm going to extremely simply things here but you are basically debating between 4,000 innnings of 106 ERA+ or 2,000 innings of 116 ERA+. These are definately the two most balanced classes, and I'd argue in favour of the Louisiana State one, come to think about it, trusting my ability to find average, or near-average, pitching through cheap means.
It's tough to say what the future holds for the Rice Trio. I can't tell you what they need to do to become the best college pitching trip ever, as I don't follow college baseball enough to know different divisions and schedules, and I think that would have to be considered in one's evaluation to some degree. Based on the stats here, and all the pitchers should improve, or at least stay the same, they are better than, or match up equally well, to any of the trios listed. I do encourage you, if you are in the area, to go take a look at any of these three pitchers. I'd certainly jump at the chance. I do think that all three will be drafted in the first round, and the first half of the first round if they all have reasonably successful years, and will become the first set of three pitcher college teammates to do that.
Looking at the above it seems improbable that all three will go onto successful careers in the major leagues, but its quite possible that they all will at least get a cup of coffee in the major leagues, barring injury. I don't forsee them becoming the Trojans of 1978, and I think at least one, and I might guess two, of them will go onto have a successful big league careers, but I couldn't tell you which one at this point. A large part of determing that probably lies with projectability and mechanics, neither of which I have immediate access to, nor great knowledge of. That decision is what people getting paid a lot more money than me, and with more time on their hands, have as their job. And hey, I was really high on Bobby Bradley a few years ago, so what do I know?
In other words, enjoy watching these three while you can. They may not end up major leaguers, but they may put in a second dominating season for your defending NCAA Champion Rice Owls!
Thursday, January 29, 2004
Owls Regain Share of WAC Lead
The Super Bowl is in town and the Owls were motivated. They picked off 16 passes, returning them for 5 touchdowns (35 pts) and held on through a slow second half to steal a 76-73 win from Hawaii. The win puts the Owls (15-5) into a tie with Fresno St (10-7) and the Rainbows (14-4) atop the WAC with a 6-2 conference record, and Nevada trails the three by one game at 5-3.
Pudgeless in Seattle
Bob Finnigan breaks the news that Pudge Rodriguez will not be a Mariner.
That is not surprising. What is silly is all the discussion about the Mariners budget in this article, and how they didn't have $9.5M to spend, but rather $7M and if you take this out and that out and blah blah blah.
I don't know if this is Finnigan's work or something the M's want published, but both should just shut up. It makes my job hard as the Mariner Optimist to promote that the team wants to win, when they make it sound like they didn't make a $10M, 1yr contract offer at least to a potential difference-maker.
Oh well, I will have to admit that I've had mixed feelings about the whole Pudge thing. I have always stated that 4yr/$40M is way too much for him, but even at 2yr/$20M, I was concerned on the effect that signing would have on the M's. I think catcher must be the least understood position on the field in terms of knowing what effect a catcher has on a pitching staff, and to a lesser extent on the opponents running game.
Add in the fact that catchers have historically broken down as hitters at about this point in their careers, and it was certainly a risky signing.
I would have endorsed signing Pudge, but part of me is happy to wait for something better to come along, hopefully in the form of trade. If we are not going to upgrade at catcher, than the best places to upgrade will be centerfield and/or a platoon partner for John Olerud at 1B.
That is not surprising. What is silly is all the discussion about the Mariners budget in this article, and how they didn't have $9.5M to spend, but rather $7M and if you take this out and that out and blah blah blah.
I don't know if this is Finnigan's work or something the M's want published, but both should just shut up. It makes my job hard as the Mariner Optimist to promote that the team wants to win, when they make it sound like they didn't make a $10M, 1yr contract offer at least to a potential difference-maker.
Oh well, I will have to admit that I've had mixed feelings about the whole Pudge thing. I have always stated that 4yr/$40M is way too much for him, but even at 2yr/$20M, I was concerned on the effect that signing would have on the M's. I think catcher must be the least understood position on the field in terms of knowing what effect a catcher has on a pitching staff, and to a lesser extent on the opponents running game.
Add in the fact that catchers have historically broken down as hitters at about this point in their careers, and it was certainly a risky signing.
I would have endorsed signing Pudge, but part of me is happy to wait for something better to come along, hopefully in the form of trade. If we are not going to upgrade at catcher, than the best places to upgrade will be centerfield and/or a platoon partner for John Olerud at 1B.
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
Fan Links added
In the spirit of fun in which this blog is intended, take a walk through some of the fan page links that have been added. If you would like more (or ones that have not been updated for years for a walk down memory lane), let me know and I'll add them.
Inside Scoop from Detroit
Justin Spiro, the editor-in-chief of DetroitSports.net, who wrote a story last Friday saying that Pudge to Seattle was a done deal, does a Q&A for the folks at InsideThePark.com
In this interview he reaffirms his faith in his source and his belief that Pudge is going to the M's, though this interview occurred before this Associated Press story that indicates that Pudge will sign with the Tigers as soon as Friday.
He also provides a Detroit perspective on the Mariners, and these tidbits on the M's half of the Carlos Guillen trade.
On Ramon Santiago - "He is a good kid, but that doesn’t translate into production. He was forced into a bad situation last year with the lowly state of the Tigers. Santiago showed flashes of spectacular defense in 2003, but his bat was just too weak even for Detroit. Given a year or two to mature with a winning team like Seattle should work to his advantage."
On Juan Gonzalez - "Even the top scouts don’t have much to report on this guy. From what I have heard, he is an extremely raw talent with decent upside. His defense appears adequate. In 453 at-bats at Single-A last season, he only managed a .249 average. His power numbers are weak too - 4 homers and 39 RBI. Gonzalez did swipe 24 bases in 2003 at West Michigan, perhaps the only positive sign for his future. "
The more I read, the more I hope that Santiago starts the year in the minors, though I have no idea if he has options left. Seems like he could use full-time at bats rather than being a bench presence. Hopefully, he will be the man sent down when we pick up Eric Karros, official Bench Masher of Lefties of the Mariner Optimist.
In this interview he reaffirms his faith in his source and his belief that Pudge is going to the M's, though this interview occurred before this Associated Press story that indicates that Pudge will sign with the Tigers as soon as Friday.
He also provides a Detroit perspective on the Mariners, and these tidbits on the M's half of the Carlos Guillen trade.
On Ramon Santiago - "He is a good kid, but that doesn’t translate into production. He was forced into a bad situation last year with the lowly state of the Tigers. Santiago showed flashes of spectacular defense in 2003, but his bat was just too weak even for Detroit. Given a year or two to mature with a winning team like Seattle should work to his advantage."
On Juan Gonzalez - "Even the top scouts don’t have much to report on this guy. From what I have heard, he is an extremely raw talent with decent upside. His defense appears adequate. In 453 at-bats at Single-A last season, he only managed a .249 average. His power numbers are weak too - 4 homers and 39 RBI. Gonzalez did swipe 24 bases in 2003 at West Michigan, perhaps the only positive sign for his future. "
The more I read, the more I hope that Santiago starts the year in the minors, though I have no idea if he has options left. Seems like he could use full-time at bats rather than being a bench presence. Hopefully, he will be the man sent down when we pick up Eric Karros, official Bench Masher of Lefties of the Mariner Optimist.
The Ultimate Team Player
Sons of Buhner is rapidly becoming one of my favorite Mariners blogs to read, having twice caused me to laugh out loud in the past 24 hours. If you haven't bookmarked it yet, I highly recommend it.
In their latest piece, they examine the story of Indians minor league pitcher Kazuhito Tadano, who has claimed he is a heterosexual that took part in gay porn films because he and his college teammates were short on cash. Sons of Buhner sagely recognizes this level of sacrifice and writes on why the M's should acquire this is ultimate team player:
Every stat-hungry, incentive-driven hitter would step to the plate and think, "You know, if that guy can do a gay porn film for his team, the least I can do is put down a decent sacrifice bunt."
Earlier this week, they reported on their hope that Norm Charlton's latest comeback attempt results in the spectacle of having his arm literally drop off at the elbow during his first pitch for the M's:
The greatest part of all, of course, would not be the actual separation of arm from elbow; no, the great part would likely be Norm's cool, measured reaction, which I imagine would be Norm standing at the front of the mound, remaining hand on hip, staring at his departed forearm and muttering, "Well, shoot."
If you find this musing to be a little to close to the 1989 shuddering spectacle of Dave Dravecky breaking his arm in his second start back from cancer treatment, don't worry this has a happy ending as well. (Well you can judge the ending of Dravecky, who broke his arm yet again during an October playoff celebration before retiring from baseball. The cancer returned and his arm was amputated two years later, but Dravecky is now one of the country's most inspiring motivational speakers).
Sons of Buhner shows that they understand Norm Charlton as they follow up with:
If Norm's left arm falls off, I'm putting ten bucks right now on an attempted comeback with the right one.
And though we choose to disagree on the relative merits of the signings of the Mariners, Padres and Royals, I wholeheartedly endorse Sons of Buhner as a great read for baseball fans everywhere. Heck, I'm going to "promote" them, along with Mariners Wheelhouse, to the label of "Cranky Internet Columnists whom I love." Keep up the great work, oh balding ones.
In their latest piece, they examine the story of Indians minor league pitcher Kazuhito Tadano, who has claimed he is a heterosexual that took part in gay porn films because he and his college teammates were short on cash. Sons of Buhner sagely recognizes this level of sacrifice and writes on why the M's should acquire this is ultimate team player:
Every stat-hungry, incentive-driven hitter would step to the plate and think, "You know, if that guy can do a gay porn film for his team, the least I can do is put down a decent sacrifice bunt."
Earlier this week, they reported on their hope that Norm Charlton's latest comeback attempt results in the spectacle of having his arm literally drop off at the elbow during his first pitch for the M's:
The greatest part of all, of course, would not be the actual separation of arm from elbow; no, the great part would likely be Norm's cool, measured reaction, which I imagine would be Norm standing at the front of the mound, remaining hand on hip, staring at his departed forearm and muttering, "Well, shoot."
If you find this musing to be a little to close to the 1989 shuddering spectacle of Dave Dravecky breaking his arm in his second start back from cancer treatment, don't worry this has a happy ending as well. (Well you can judge the ending of Dravecky, who broke his arm yet again during an October playoff celebration before retiring from baseball. The cancer returned and his arm was amputated two years later, but Dravecky is now one of the country's most inspiring motivational speakers).
Sons of Buhner shows that they understand Norm Charlton as they follow up with:
If Norm's left arm falls off, I'm putting ten bucks right now on an attempted comeback with the right one.
And though we choose to disagree on the relative merits of the signings of the Mariners, Padres and Royals, I wholeheartedly endorse Sons of Buhner as a great read for baseball fans everywhere. Heck, I'm going to "promote" them, along with Mariners Wheelhouse, to the label of "Cranky Internet Columnists whom I love." Keep up the great work, oh balding ones.
Sheffield to the Hot Corner?
Wow - this move would suddenly give the Yankees the top hitting 3B in baseball. And who needs infield defense anyway?
Updated 1/29 to add a link to Aaron Gleeman's thoughts on the Yankees Infield of Doom, and how it will be interesting to see Kevin Brown, an extreme groundball pitcher, go from an infield defense that is very good, to one that is very, very bad.
Updated 1/29 to add a link to Aaron Gleeman's thoughts on the Yankees Infield of Doom, and how it will be interesting to see Kevin Brown, an extreme groundball pitcher, go from an infield defense that is very good, to one that is very, very bad.
M's Contemplate How to Spend Found Money
Mariners GM Bill Bavasi had a press conference yesterday about the release of Kazuhiro Sasaki, and how the M's will spend the $9.5M that this frees up. Bavasi said some interesting things, most of which are just what I wanted to hear. I have collected quotes from three stories and will provide the quotes and my interpretation. The articles are from Tribnet's Larry Larue, MLB's Jim Street, and the HeraldNet's Kirby Arnold.
The short take is that the M's will try their best to spend the money before Spring training, will make a short-term contract offer to Ivan Rodriguez, will look for a second lefty for the bullpen, are going to evaluate EVERYONE on the market including Greg Maddux, and would prefer free agent signings to trades.
Here's Bill Bavasi...
We'll spend the cash before Spring Training - "It gives us more financial flexibility, but I don't think it's right to spend just to spend, but it's real likely a lot of it is going to be taken care of. We will use some of this. If we don't, it won't be for lack of trying."
First order of business with the cash - "Right now, I'd probably try to fill the second left-hander in the bullpen, then explore helping the offense. Kaz left a significant hole in our bullpen."
Lets hope Pudge wants quality of life over length of contract - "Pudge is a good name and I'm not saying he isn't a good player, but he has to have the 'right' number in mind. We have an interest in him on a short-term basis."
Positioning M's as unlikely to offer Pudge 3, 4, or 5-year contract - "We have interest in him on a short-term basis. Our opinion, and we could be wrong, is that the most success he's had in his career has been in short-term bursts. When he's been given a contract that is structured such that he has another opportunity in a year or two, he's performed tremendously."
Don't get your hopes up on Pudge, M's fans, but we're trying - "We'll just have to see what kind of deals he's had out there and how late we are. If he's gone down the road a long way with a club or two, we're going to be at a disadvantage."
Unchanged philosophy of avoiding all eggs in one basket - "Our view has really opened, and to say we're focused on one guy might not be accurate right now. We have to continue to maintain a balanced club."
Greg Maddux is a slim possibility if able to trade a starter for quality return simultaneously - "If other offers were made for the starters that we could time it all right, I wouldn't say no. To move one of them to bring on a veteran pitcher and extend the kind of money it's going to take to secure him, we'd have to get some real quality back for one of those young starters."
Carlos Beltran (or any other) trade unlikely when free agents still available - "We would prefer not to give up kids in trades if we can answer the same issues with free agents."
We'll take a fresh look at the free agent market - "When you look at what's out there, you at least try to look at the veteran player that's available and quantify what he can do for you. We have to look at everything that's available, including the premier names that are out there."
What would the M's have done if they wanted to keep Sasaki - "I don't know what our recourse would have been, and I'm proud to say I don't know because I didn't look into it. We weren't going to do that to the guy, anyway. This worked out perfectly for the player and the club."
Kaz will be missed - "One thing we can't overlook is that this guy was a significant contributor and was expected to be a significant contributor. While Kaz might not have a year last year that was at the top of his game, this guy just a few moments ago left a significant hole in our bullpen and we have to be aware of that. We have to fill it."
Timing of Sasaki departure could have been better - "With Kaz leaving and us not finding out about it until three weeks ago, it knocks you out of your gyro a little bit and now we have to adjust to that.
So what can we expect to see...
A 2 year contract offer to Ivan Rodriguez. My guess is big signing bonus, small 2004 number, big 2005 number and a 2006 option that vests with 2005 plate appearances or some other incentive. Say $6M signing bonus, $3M 2004, $10M 2005, $11M/$1M 2006 that is automatic with 500 PAs in 2005. Minimum worth of 2yr/$20M, maximum worth of 3yr/$30M, and by using signing bonus we get a lower number in 2004 so we still have some money to strengthen bullpen and maybe add a bat off the bench.
Lefty setup guy is going to be hard to find. Mark Guthrie and Terry Mulholland do not inspire much confidence. So is there a trade for a lefty setup guy out there - maybe we can acquire a setup guy in a trade for a 27-year-old catcher?
I'm hoping we'll pickup a bat for the bench out of the mix of Ron Coomer, Andres Galarraga, Eric Karros, Travis Lee, Fred McGriff, Raul Mondesi, Troy O'Leary, and Todd Zeile. My preference would be Eric Karros because he mashes lefties (986 OPS last year), should come cheaply, and he gives entertaining interviews (and puts up with nickname of "Fabio") on the Jim Rome show.
I hope we avoid thinking much about Ugueth Urbina, but someone had to say it. Urbina is an excellent closer, and that would put Eddie Guardado back in a setup role, which may tick off Eddie. Or he could be the setup guy as he actually handled lefties better than righties last year (572 vs 707 OPS against). I will admit that this would again give us the most dominant bullpen in baseball, and would hopefully free up Rafael Soriano to head to the rotation, but it seems like spending money on a problem that doesn't exist.
The game is now afoot...
The short take is that the M's will try their best to spend the money before Spring training, will make a short-term contract offer to Ivan Rodriguez, will look for a second lefty for the bullpen, are going to evaluate EVERYONE on the market including Greg Maddux, and would prefer free agent signings to trades.
Here's Bill Bavasi...
We'll spend the cash before Spring Training - "It gives us more financial flexibility, but I don't think it's right to spend just to spend, but it's real likely a lot of it is going to be taken care of. We will use some of this. If we don't, it won't be for lack of trying."
First order of business with the cash - "Right now, I'd probably try to fill the second left-hander in the bullpen, then explore helping the offense. Kaz left a significant hole in our bullpen."
Lets hope Pudge wants quality of life over length of contract - "Pudge is a good name and I'm not saying he isn't a good player, but he has to have the 'right' number in mind. We have an interest in him on a short-term basis."
Positioning M's as unlikely to offer Pudge 3, 4, or 5-year contract - "We have interest in him on a short-term basis. Our opinion, and we could be wrong, is that the most success he's had in his career has been in short-term bursts. When he's been given a contract that is structured such that he has another opportunity in a year or two, he's performed tremendously."
Don't get your hopes up on Pudge, M's fans, but we're trying - "We'll just have to see what kind of deals he's had out there and how late we are. If he's gone down the road a long way with a club or two, we're going to be at a disadvantage."
Unchanged philosophy of avoiding all eggs in one basket - "Our view has really opened, and to say we're focused on one guy might not be accurate right now. We have to continue to maintain a balanced club."
Greg Maddux is a slim possibility if able to trade a starter for quality return simultaneously - "If other offers were made for the starters that we could time it all right, I wouldn't say no. To move one of them to bring on a veteran pitcher and extend the kind of money it's going to take to secure him, we'd have to get some real quality back for one of those young starters."
Carlos Beltran (or any other) trade unlikely when free agents still available - "We would prefer not to give up kids in trades if we can answer the same issues with free agents."
We'll take a fresh look at the free agent market - "When you look at what's out there, you at least try to look at the veteran player that's available and quantify what he can do for you. We have to look at everything that's available, including the premier names that are out there."
What would the M's have done if they wanted to keep Sasaki - "I don't know what our recourse would have been, and I'm proud to say I don't know because I didn't look into it. We weren't going to do that to the guy, anyway. This worked out perfectly for the player and the club."
Kaz will be missed - "One thing we can't overlook is that this guy was a significant contributor and was expected to be a significant contributor. While Kaz might not have a year last year that was at the top of his game, this guy just a few moments ago left a significant hole in our bullpen and we have to be aware of that. We have to fill it."
Timing of Sasaki departure could have been better - "With Kaz leaving and us not finding out about it until three weeks ago, it knocks you out of your gyro a little bit and now we have to adjust to that.
So what can we expect to see...
A 2 year contract offer to Ivan Rodriguez. My guess is big signing bonus, small 2004 number, big 2005 number and a 2006 option that vests with 2005 plate appearances or some other incentive. Say $6M signing bonus, $3M 2004, $10M 2005, $11M/$1M 2006 that is automatic with 500 PAs in 2005. Minimum worth of 2yr/$20M, maximum worth of 3yr/$30M, and by using signing bonus we get a lower number in 2004 so we still have some money to strengthen bullpen and maybe add a bat off the bench.
Lefty setup guy is going to be hard to find. Mark Guthrie and Terry Mulholland do not inspire much confidence. So is there a trade for a lefty setup guy out there - maybe we can acquire a setup guy in a trade for a 27-year-old catcher?
I'm hoping we'll pickup a bat for the bench out of the mix of Ron Coomer, Andres Galarraga, Eric Karros, Travis Lee, Fred McGriff, Raul Mondesi, Troy O'Leary, and Todd Zeile. My preference would be Eric Karros because he mashes lefties (986 OPS last year), should come cheaply, and he gives entertaining interviews (and puts up with nickname of "Fabio") on the Jim Rome show.
I hope we avoid thinking much about Ugueth Urbina, but someone had to say it. Urbina is an excellent closer, and that would put Eddie Guardado back in a setup role, which may tick off Eddie. Or he could be the setup guy as he actually handled lefties better than righties last year (572 vs 707 OPS against). I will admit that this would again give us the most dominant bullpen in baseball, and would hopefully free up Rafael Soriano to head to the rotation, but it seems like spending money on a problem that doesn't exist.
The game is now afoot...
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
Blog Rumors
Kazuhiro Sasaki has been waived and will never pitch in MLB again, and the bloggers are circling to guess how Bavasi and company will spend this new windfall. USS Mariner is of two minds on the subject (but I wanted to thank them here for adding Mariner Optimist to their M's blogosphere links). Much conjecture is around acquiring Ivan Rodriguez, and trading Ben Davis to make room.
Wondering who we might deal Ben Davis to? PhilliesInsider.com has a column, "Thinking Out Loud" that describes what a good fit Big Ben would be for the Phillies. It is a long article, with four or five paragraphs on this conjecture:
Although the Phils have not openly announced that they are looking to trade either (Jason) Michaels or (Chase) Utley, they have casually mentioned the possibility. It was even speculated that the Phils might dangle the pair in hopes of acquiring a solid young catcher to back up and someday replace the veteran Mike Lieberthal.
This was an interesting revelation, especially with word out of Seattle that the Mariners might be close to signing World Series hero, Pudge Rodgriguez, to a free agent contract. The Mariners have made no secret of their interest in Pudge, but acknowledge that they would first have to trade one of their two catchers, veteran Dan Wilson or youngster Ben Davis.
The mention of Davis might bring forth more than a passing interest among Phillie officials. Only 27 years of age, Davis is a local player, with roots to Philadelphia, and a solid lefty bat to support Lieberthal. It does not take a vivid imagination to picture the Phils potential interest in Davis, given the dirth of catching prospects in the organization, and Davis’s potential long-term future as a Phil.
Would a Jason Michaels, or Chase Utley be enough to interest the Mariners in a trade? Perhaps. Davis has a contract for 1.4 million dollars this year, and a Michaels/Utley duo might be enough to entice the Mariners to say yes. Would the Phils be interested? While difficult to say, they seem to be going out of their way to indicate that Michaels and Utley are far from guaranteed employment in Philadelphia this year.
Add to this conjecture the fact that Arbuckle said that it was “highly unlikely” that either Michaels or Utley would be sent to the minors, and a Davis for Michaels/Utley trade makes perfect sense. Stay tuned.
Stay tuned, indeed.
Wondering who we might deal Ben Davis to? PhilliesInsider.com has a column, "Thinking Out Loud" that describes what a good fit Big Ben would be for the Phillies. It is a long article, with four or five paragraphs on this conjecture:
Although the Phils have not openly announced that they are looking to trade either (Jason) Michaels or (Chase) Utley, they have casually mentioned the possibility. It was even speculated that the Phils might dangle the pair in hopes of acquiring a solid young catcher to back up and someday replace the veteran Mike Lieberthal.
This was an interesting revelation, especially with word out of Seattle that the Mariners might be close to signing World Series hero, Pudge Rodgriguez, to a free agent contract. The Mariners have made no secret of their interest in Pudge, but acknowledge that they would first have to trade one of their two catchers, veteran Dan Wilson or youngster Ben Davis.
The mention of Davis might bring forth more than a passing interest among Phillie officials. Only 27 years of age, Davis is a local player, with roots to Philadelphia, and a solid lefty bat to support Lieberthal. It does not take a vivid imagination to picture the Phils potential interest in Davis, given the dirth of catching prospects in the organization, and Davis’s potential long-term future as a Phil.
Would a Jason Michaels, or Chase Utley be enough to interest the Mariners in a trade? Perhaps. Davis has a contract for 1.4 million dollars this year, and a Michaels/Utley duo might be enough to entice the Mariners to say yes. Would the Phils be interested? While difficult to say, they seem to be going out of their way to indicate that Michaels and Utley are far from guaranteed employment in Philadelphia this year.
Add to this conjecture the fact that Arbuckle said that it was “highly unlikely” that either Michaels or Utley would be sent to the minors, and a Davis for Michaels/Utley trade makes perfect sense. Stay tuned.
Stay tuned, indeed.
Aaron Boone Gone For the Year
The man who almost cost the Mariners Freddy Garcia, Rett Johnson, and $1.25M cash at last year's trade deadline, is gone for 2004 thanks to a torn ACL suffered in a pickup basketball game. Ouch.
The injury will not only cost the ALCS Game 7 Hero his season, but it may cost him most of his 1 year, $5.75M contract as well.
"Concerning his contract, I can confirm that there are certain prohibited activities, which include basketball," Cashman said. Boone is eligible for free agency after next season, and if the Yankees successfully converted the deal to a nonguaranteed contract, they could release him and be responsible for only 30 days' termination pay, $917,553, instead of the full salary, which is paid over a 188-day season.
The rumor mills are swirling as to who will replace Boone the Lesser. The Yankees do not have a backup third baseman with full-time major league experience. Enrique Wilson and newly signed Miguel Cairo are options to fill the spot, as is minor leaguer Drew Henson.
But this is New York. Steinbrenner. Big money. No budget. Surely, Steinbrenner won't allow Enrique Wilson to be the starting third basemen. So what's a man with a bottomless wallet to do?
Jeff Cirillo. Unlikely. If the man can't handle the pressure of Seattle, I believe Mr. Furious would go postal in New York.
Pudge Rodriguez. Scott Boras' wet dream comes in the form of some rumor-mongering that Pudge could play 3B. David Pinto at Baseball Musings explores this possibility.
Derek Jeter moves from SS - his defense is in decline from heights that were not that high, so 3B becomes a possibility.
Fernando Tatis? Mark McLemore? Graig Nettles?
Update 10:52am PST with this excert from NY Daily News which takes on the same question...
With Aaron Boone possibly lost for the season, the Yanks have limited options at third base. Here's a list of contenders.
Jose Hernandez: Most recognizable free agent available, but swings at more pitches than Alfonso Soriano.
Mark McLemore: No bat (two homers last year) but a decent glove. Made two errors in 29 games at third last season.
Miguel Cairo: The prototypical utility infielder, he's played just 19 games at third in the past two years.
Enrique Wilson: If Yanks face Pedro Martinez every game, then he's a perfect fit. Has played in 123 games since 2002.
Jay Bell: Former Met is retired and looking toward a managing career, but could be lured back to Big Apple.
Drew Henson: Drew Henson: Yanks got Boone so they wouldn't have to answer questions about Henson anymore.
Erick Almonte: Filled in at short for Derek Jeter last year, but has said he thinks he's got a better shot at making it at third.
The injury will not only cost the ALCS Game 7 Hero his season, but it may cost him most of his 1 year, $5.75M contract as well.
"Concerning his contract, I can confirm that there are certain prohibited activities, which include basketball," Cashman said. Boone is eligible for free agency after next season, and if the Yankees successfully converted the deal to a nonguaranteed contract, they could release him and be responsible for only 30 days' termination pay, $917,553, instead of the full salary, which is paid over a 188-day season.
The rumor mills are swirling as to who will replace Boone the Lesser. The Yankees do not have a backup third baseman with full-time major league experience. Enrique Wilson and newly signed Miguel Cairo are options to fill the spot, as is minor leaguer Drew Henson.
But this is New York. Steinbrenner. Big money. No budget. Surely, Steinbrenner won't allow Enrique Wilson to be the starting third basemen. So what's a man with a bottomless wallet to do?
Jeff Cirillo. Unlikely. If the man can't handle the pressure of Seattle, I believe Mr. Furious would go postal in New York.
Pudge Rodriguez. Scott Boras' wet dream comes in the form of some rumor-mongering that Pudge could play 3B. David Pinto at Baseball Musings explores this possibility.
Derek Jeter moves from SS - his defense is in decline from heights that were not that high, so 3B becomes a possibility.
Fernando Tatis? Mark McLemore? Graig Nettles?
Update 10:52am PST with this excert from NY Daily News which takes on the same question...
With Aaron Boone possibly lost for the season, the Yanks have limited options at third base. Here's a list of contenders.
Jose Hernandez: Most recognizable free agent available, but swings at more pitches than Alfonso Soriano.
Mark McLemore: No bat (two homers last year) but a decent glove. Made two errors in 29 games at third last season.
Miguel Cairo: The prototypical utility infielder, he's played just 19 games at third in the past two years.
Enrique Wilson: If Yanks face Pedro Martinez every game, then he's a perfect fit. Has played in 123 games since 2002.
Jay Bell: Former Met is retired and looking toward a managing career, but could be lured back to Big Apple.
Drew Henson: Drew Henson: Yanks got Boone so they wouldn't have to answer questions about Henson anymore.
Erick Almonte: Filled in at short for Derek Jeter last year, but has said he thinks he's got a better shot at making it at third.
Victims of Our Own Success
One of the things people forget when watching the machinations of the Mariners Front Office is what a good team we already have. This makes it harder to improve the Mariners than it is to improve the Detroit Tigers or the San Diego Padres.
The Sons of Buhner lauds Padres GM Kevin Towers for his moves to rebuild the Petco kids and soon will do a similar piece on how the Royals had a much better offseason than the Mariners. Whether we agree or disagree on a particular move, I think we can agree that the Royals and Padres had much more room for improvement than the M's.
The M's blogosphere can be a tricky place. The Padres get kudos for finding Phil Nevin off the scrapheap, but when the M's find Bret Boone, it is regarded as luck. Steve at Mariners Wheelhouse sent me an email in respone to my entry, Scott Spiezio... The Next Bret Boone that said:
I also would not give the Mariners "credit" for finding Boone. Gillick had no expectation that Boone would do what he did in 2001. Gillick was just hoping to add a bit of power at second base, and Boone was available and cheap.
Yet, who had Bret Boone right under their very nose? That's right - the Padres and GM Kevin Towers. And Towers tried his hardest to turn Cirillo and Ramon Hernandez into Jason Kendall and his Contract of Doom before ownership nixed the deal. $40M for a singles hitting catcher? Shades of Guillen for Vizquel without the hue and cry.
Bavasi and company had a wishlist of improvements to make this offseason, they may not have made the moves you like, but they did make improvements.
Fortunately, the amount of improvement one can make on an excellent team is not as large as the amount you can make on a bad team.
Bavasi had a plan, and while the execution was not perfect, the M's are a better team heading into 2004 than they were heading into 2003.
1) Add outfield pop - Maybe the organization should have lavished more love on Cameron, but the fact was he couldn't hit at Safeco. Its best for him to leave, and better that we make it easy. The best bats (Vlad, Sheffield) were unlikely to sign in Seattle unless we paid over market rates (which were already very high). So, M's brass decided to go for a former Mariner with good character and who was coming off two straight big seasons. Unless Vlad or Sheffield were signed, no upgrade here was going to be seen as very substantial.
2) Replace Carlos Guillen - I'm assuming that character/chemistry issues played a part in this. Unfortunately, Miguel Tejada ended up costing too much, which was our best shot at a big upgrade. Should we have gone 6/$72M? Maybe, but I'm glad we didn't. I like Rich Aurilia as well as Guillen, and their contracts would have been pretty similar (3.5 vs. 3.4 million) if Guillen would have stayed healthy. But Guillen wouldn't have, which is the whole point. As for what we got for Guillen, Santiago is a prospect that was rushed. On a World Series team like the M's he won't be more than a backup, but he's got a chance to have a decent career ahead of him.
3) Replace Cirillo - Scott Spiezio will be the next Bret Boone. Period. What other 3B was available? As far as what we got for Cirillo, I'll contend that all three on their own are easier to trade and potentially more useful, and certainly won't be a giant sucking sound as far as team chemistry goes.
4) Reconfigure Bullpen - Rhodes sucked in second half and in his trials as a closer, while Guardado has dominated and finished strong last year. A creative contract that set him up to be closer when Sasaki departs.
5) Retain Starters - Plan A seemed to be to trade Freddy for a big bat, and keep the other four. Instead, no Freddy deal materializes yet. In meantime, we REWARD our players by keeping and resigning them, not imagining problems like Ryan Franklin's ERA blowing up with loss of Cameron. If that happens, then we have plenty of depth to deal from.
6) Upgrade bench - We didn't use Colbrunn last year, so did straight swap for him and more versatile McCracken. Colbrunn was essentially signed to be the DH when Edgar gets hurt, and was not going to get that opportunity. A big bat would be nice, but its hard to sign a big bat to sit on the bench. Matt Stairs gets playing time in KC he would not get here. And if we have a major injury, we have pitching to trade and Chris Snelling and Justin Leone playing full-time in the minors, ready for the call.
When you follow every move, and dream about the possibilities, you can make the M's a better team. But sometimes, players don't want to play somewhere, or another team wants a player more, because they have a bigger need. The Angels weren't planning on Vlad, but they were lucky enough that the Orioles were the only other player, that they had the Latino community Vlad wanted, and the big money when the opportunity arose. Hats off to them for good luck. And now the M's may take advantage of similar luck to land Pudge Rodriguez. But the blogosphere will decry the M's as "lucky" if they get Pudge at a good price, while they will laud the Angels for getting Vlad at a nice price.
Take some time to look at the Mariners, AS THEY ARE, not as they could have been if they had gone after player A or player B. Give credit when it is due, even if it looks like luck. And we'll look forward to the M's-Padres World Series in 2004!
Oh yeah - thanks to the one mention at U.S.S. Mariner, my traffic tripled yesterday. Have I mentioned how much I love those guys, and am really looking forward to making their blogosphere links :-)
The Sons of Buhner lauds Padres GM Kevin Towers for his moves to rebuild the Petco kids and soon will do a similar piece on how the Royals had a much better offseason than the Mariners. Whether we agree or disagree on a particular move, I think we can agree that the Royals and Padres had much more room for improvement than the M's.
The M's blogosphere can be a tricky place. The Padres get kudos for finding Phil Nevin off the scrapheap, but when the M's find Bret Boone, it is regarded as luck. Steve at Mariners Wheelhouse sent me an email in respone to my entry, Scott Spiezio... The Next Bret Boone that said:
I also would not give the Mariners "credit" for finding Boone. Gillick had no expectation that Boone would do what he did in 2001. Gillick was just hoping to add a bit of power at second base, and Boone was available and cheap.
Yet, who had Bret Boone right under their very nose? That's right - the Padres and GM Kevin Towers. And Towers tried his hardest to turn Cirillo and Ramon Hernandez into Jason Kendall and his Contract of Doom before ownership nixed the deal. $40M for a singles hitting catcher? Shades of Guillen for Vizquel without the hue and cry.
Bavasi and company had a wishlist of improvements to make this offseason, they may not have made the moves you like, but they did make improvements.
Fortunately, the amount of improvement one can make on an excellent team is not as large as the amount you can make on a bad team.
Bavasi had a plan, and while the execution was not perfect, the M's are a better team heading into 2004 than they were heading into 2003.
1) Add outfield pop - Maybe the organization should have lavished more love on Cameron, but the fact was he couldn't hit at Safeco. Its best for him to leave, and better that we make it easy. The best bats (Vlad, Sheffield) were unlikely to sign in Seattle unless we paid over market rates (which were already very high). So, M's brass decided to go for a former Mariner with good character and who was coming off two straight big seasons. Unless Vlad or Sheffield were signed, no upgrade here was going to be seen as very substantial.
2) Replace Carlos Guillen - I'm assuming that character/chemistry issues played a part in this. Unfortunately, Miguel Tejada ended up costing too much, which was our best shot at a big upgrade. Should we have gone 6/$72M? Maybe, but I'm glad we didn't. I like Rich Aurilia as well as Guillen, and their contracts would have been pretty similar (3.5 vs. 3.4 million) if Guillen would have stayed healthy. But Guillen wouldn't have, which is the whole point. As for what we got for Guillen, Santiago is a prospect that was rushed. On a World Series team like the M's he won't be more than a backup, but he's got a chance to have a decent career ahead of him.
3) Replace Cirillo - Scott Spiezio will be the next Bret Boone. Period. What other 3B was available? As far as what we got for Cirillo, I'll contend that all three on their own are easier to trade and potentially more useful, and certainly won't be a giant sucking sound as far as team chemistry goes.
4) Reconfigure Bullpen - Rhodes sucked in second half and in his trials as a closer, while Guardado has dominated and finished strong last year. A creative contract that set him up to be closer when Sasaki departs.
5) Retain Starters - Plan A seemed to be to trade Freddy for a big bat, and keep the other four. Instead, no Freddy deal materializes yet. In meantime, we REWARD our players by keeping and resigning them, not imagining problems like Ryan Franklin's ERA blowing up with loss of Cameron. If that happens, then we have plenty of depth to deal from.
6) Upgrade bench - We didn't use Colbrunn last year, so did straight swap for him and more versatile McCracken. Colbrunn was essentially signed to be the DH when Edgar gets hurt, and was not going to get that opportunity. A big bat would be nice, but its hard to sign a big bat to sit on the bench. Matt Stairs gets playing time in KC he would not get here. And if we have a major injury, we have pitching to trade and Chris Snelling and Justin Leone playing full-time in the minors, ready for the call.
When you follow every move, and dream about the possibilities, you can make the M's a better team. But sometimes, players don't want to play somewhere, or another team wants a player more, because they have a bigger need. The Angels weren't planning on Vlad, but they were lucky enough that the Orioles were the only other player, that they had the Latino community Vlad wanted, and the big money when the opportunity arose. Hats off to them for good luck. And now the M's may take advantage of similar luck to land Pudge Rodriguez. But the blogosphere will decry the M's as "lucky" if they get Pudge at a good price, while they will laud the Angels for getting Vlad at a nice price.
Take some time to look at the Mariners, AS THEY ARE, not as they could have been if they had gone after player A or player B. Give credit when it is due, even if it looks like luck. And we'll look forward to the M's-Padres World Series in 2004!
Oh yeah - thanks to the one mention at U.S.S. Mariner, my traffic tripled yesterday. Have I mentioned how much I love those guys, and am really looking forward to making their blogosphere links :-)
Monday, January 26, 2004
With a Wink and a Nudge
For a brief moment, I had my hopes up that DMZ (a very nice set of initials) at the original M's blog, USS Mariner, had given me a permanent link after announcing my presence to their (I'm guessing larger than mine) reading audience.
I was going to honor them by allowing them to keep their suggested title of "Cranky Internet Columnist." Essentially, Derek does not like that I divide blogs into optimist and pessimist. Of course we are all Mariner fans and want the M's to win. I chose "optimist" as a tone for the blog, not to condemn the other blogs, who frankly, do excellent and entertaining analysis of the M's and their moves.
As a holder of a statistics degree, I understand their pessimism. Ibanez is probably being overpaid for his Kaufmann-stadium inflated stats. Scott Spiezio has never played 3B. Arthur Rhodes may be a better pitcher than Eddie Guardado. And Quinton McCracken may be the worst 4th OF in baseball. But, maybe they are wrong.
I just happen to be optimistic enough to think that hey, stats are NOT everything. There are other reasons to make moves. If the 25 best sets of stats won every year, the Marlins and Angels wouldn't be World Series Champs this year. I believe in chemistry even though it can't be measured. I like my team to have players I like as people. Raul Ibanez being a great guy is NOT BAD NEWS as some blogs, which I label pessimist, would have you believe. And even though under the sabermetric microscope, a move may look idiotic, I think M's management has put together a World Series contender in 2004.
Well, anyway, I've changed my template, and I wanted to also announce a new site, Mariner Minors, who look like they will have minutae about our minor league players, which should be a great reference. (Of course, I was in the middle of an optimistic posting on some of our top players, but I'll table that till later for now).
So I go back to USS Mariner to be the first to link to Mariner Optimist from there (and make sure it works), and I find that, while they've added Mariner Minors to their list of M's blogsphere, yours truly (and the Gleeman-length Sons of Buhner as well) were not added. Sigh - I guess I'll need to change my blog title, yet...
Hopefully by the time you read this, Mariner Optimist will be considered a part of the M's blogosphere by USS Mariner. If not, I'll hope that those Mariner fans looking for happy news that is not necessarily spoon-fed by the media will find me through links in the rest of the blogosphere. Or by googling "heckling basketball Rice Owls."
If any other blogs would like to choose their label, let me know, and I'll be happy to change it for you. These blogs are nothing if not easy to maintain. And if you know the guys at U.S.S. Mariner, send em a note asking them to add Mariner Optimist and Sons of Buhner to their template. I think they are sick of hearing from me.
And of course, now that there are 23 M's related blogs and counting, someone has already called for a moratorium and combining of blogs. I say give them all a try for awhile... some will drop out, some will merge, and some will drive away their readers by posting about sports from some school in Texas. In the meantime, I recommend going to baseballblogs.org and learning about RSS feeds - it at least cuts down on having to hunt for new posts.
I was going to honor them by allowing them to keep their suggested title of "Cranky Internet Columnist." Essentially, Derek does not like that I divide blogs into optimist and pessimist. Of course we are all Mariner fans and want the M's to win. I chose "optimist" as a tone for the blog, not to condemn the other blogs, who frankly, do excellent and entertaining analysis of the M's and their moves.
As a holder of a statistics degree, I understand their pessimism. Ibanez is probably being overpaid for his Kaufmann-stadium inflated stats. Scott Spiezio has never played 3B. Arthur Rhodes may be a better pitcher than Eddie Guardado. And Quinton McCracken may be the worst 4th OF in baseball. But, maybe they are wrong.
I just happen to be optimistic enough to think that hey, stats are NOT everything. There are other reasons to make moves. If the 25 best sets of stats won every year, the Marlins and Angels wouldn't be World Series Champs this year. I believe in chemistry even though it can't be measured. I like my team to have players I like as people. Raul Ibanez being a great guy is NOT BAD NEWS as some blogs, which I label pessimist, would have you believe. And even though under the sabermetric microscope, a move may look idiotic, I think M's management has put together a World Series contender in 2004.
Well, anyway, I've changed my template, and I wanted to also announce a new site, Mariner Minors, who look like they will have minutae about our minor league players, which should be a great reference. (Of course, I was in the middle of an optimistic posting on some of our top players, but I'll table that till later for now).
So I go back to USS Mariner to be the first to link to Mariner Optimist from there (and make sure it works), and I find that, while they've added Mariner Minors to their list of M's blogsphere, yours truly (and the Gleeman-length Sons of Buhner as well) were not added. Sigh - I guess I'll need to change my blog title, yet...
Hopefully by the time you read this, Mariner Optimist will be considered a part of the M's blogosphere by USS Mariner. If not, I'll hope that those Mariner fans looking for happy news that is not necessarily spoon-fed by the media will find me through links in the rest of the blogosphere. Or by googling "heckling basketball Rice Owls."
If any other blogs would like to choose their label, let me know, and I'll be happy to change it for you. These blogs are nothing if not easy to maintain. And if you know the guys at U.S.S. Mariner, send em a note asking them to add Mariner Optimist and Sons of Buhner to their template. I think they are sick of hearing from me.
And of course, now that there are 23 M's related blogs and counting, someone has already called for a moratorium and combining of blogs. I say give them all a try for awhile... some will drop out, some will merge, and some will drive away their readers by posting about sports from some school in Texas. In the meantime, I recommend going to baseballblogs.org and learning about RSS feeds - it at least cuts down on having to hunt for new posts.
Scott Spiezio Rocks
Looking forward to seeing Spiezio becoming a fan favorite and maybe another shot at World Series Hero. Steve Kelley interviews Spiezio's band-mate, Jeremy Sparta, and reveals Scott as much less confident on stage than in the batter's box.
You get the feeling Scott Spiezio is going to be an instant fan favorite. The son of former big leaguer Ed Spiezio — an accordion player with perfect pitch — he is the antithesis of "big time."
And, where his predecessor, Jeff Cirillo, was wrapped as tightly as an old-school Titleist, Spiezio is as loose as David Lee Roth.
"He is absolutely the most normal guy you could meet," Sparta said. "We've met a lot of major-league players through Scott and I can tell you he's a one-in-a-million. It's never gone to his head.
"He still thinks it's funny when people come up to him and ask for his autograph. He acts like, 'Why would you want my autograph?' The way we look at Scott is that he has a good-paying, high-profile day job, but he's just a regular guy."
Just a regular guy who loves playing hardball and heavy metal.
If Spiezio hits and doesn't bring back visions of Russ Davis fielding at 3B then M's fans are gonna love him. Humility and personality, too? Its a good time to buy low on Scott Spiezio stock..
You get the feeling Scott Spiezio is going to be an instant fan favorite. The son of former big leaguer Ed Spiezio — an accordion player with perfect pitch — he is the antithesis of "big time."
And, where his predecessor, Jeff Cirillo, was wrapped as tightly as an old-school Titleist, Spiezio is as loose as David Lee Roth.
"He is absolutely the most normal guy you could meet," Sparta said. "We've met a lot of major-league players through Scott and I can tell you he's a one-in-a-million. It's never gone to his head.
"He still thinks it's funny when people come up to him and ask for his autograph. He acts like, 'Why would you want my autograph?' The way we look at Scott is that he has a good-paying, high-profile day job, but he's just a regular guy."
Just a regular guy who loves playing hardball and heavy metal.
If Spiezio hits and doesn't bring back visions of Russ Davis fielding at 3B then M's fans are gonna love him. Humility and personality, too? Its a good time to buy low on Scott Spiezio stock..
Quote of the Day
"I'm not going to talk about (retirement) during the season. I probably won't even be sure what I'm going to do (in 2005) until the end of the (2004) season."
- Edgar Martinez, quoted in an MLB.com article on Mariners FanFest.
In hindsight, I should have named my first born "Edgar." She would have learned to love that name just like I do.
- Edgar Martinez, quoted in an MLB.com article on Mariners FanFest.
In hindsight, I should have named my first born "Edgar." She would have learned to love that name just like I do.
Scott Boras' Number
Rob Neyer had an interesting article on the genius Of Scott Boras. It essentially describes how Boras has changed the game from two teams fighting over a player to determine the number he will be paid, to Boras dictating the number even with only one team involved. See Rodriguez, Alex, and now Pudge...
Meanwhile, Larry Larue reports that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi vehemently denied the report from a Detroit sports website, saying "There is absolutely nothing to that story. They either have bad sources or they're fools, or both.". But the article goes on to say that they do NOT deny interest but that talks will not happen until Sasaki's departure is official.
Does this "pursuit" of Pudge Rodriguez seem familiar? I'm not helping. So this will be my last Pudge Rodriguez bandwagon pushing post until he signs. How about that FanFest? Can't wait for that big Carolina-New Englaaaaawwwwnn. G'night.
Meanwhile, Larry Larue reports that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi vehemently denied the report from a Detroit sports website, saying "There is absolutely nothing to that story. They either have bad sources or they're fools, or both.". But the article goes on to say that they do NOT deny interest but that talks will not happen until Sasaki's departure is official.
Does this "pursuit" of Pudge Rodriguez seem familiar? I'm not helping. So this will be my last Pudge Rodriguez bandwagon pushing post until he signs. How about that FanFest? Can't wait for that big Carolina-New Englaaaaawwwwnn. G'night.
Sunday, January 25, 2004
Nevada pins Second Conference Loss on Owls
Another road game in front of a hostile crowd, another pathetically slow start for the Owls. And just like last Saturday in Tulsa, the slow start could not be overcome as the Owls fell to 14-5, 5-2 in conference play. And worse for Rice, this time they could not event make things interesting as they fell 101-76 to Nevada (11-6, 5-3).
The Owls started the game shooting 2-11 and fell behind 25-7 in the games first eight minutes, and never recovered, getting no closer than 15 at 86-71. Nevada is now 9-0 at home, and just one half game behind the Owls for second place in the tough WAC.
Rice' next game is on Wednesday at the cozy confines of Autry Court as they host first place Hawaii who survived Boise St last night 64-58 to go to 6-1 in WAC play.
The Owls started the game shooting 2-11 and fell behind 25-7 in the games first eight minutes, and never recovered, getting no closer than 15 at 86-71. Nevada is now 9-0 at home, and just one half game behind the Owls for second place in the tough WAC.
Rice' next game is on Wednesday at the cozy confines of Autry Court as they host first place Hawaii who survived Boise St last night 64-58 to go to 6-1 in WAC play.
Saturday, January 24, 2004
The Pudge Bandwagon Rolls On
Another new M's blog, The Sons of Buhner, jumps right in on the Pudge bandwagon and gives a good argument for Pudge.
According to Alan Trammell, the Tigers pursuit of Pudge is in the "limbo stage," whatever that means.
Justin Spiro at DetroitSports.net reports that a source close to Pudge says he is going to sign with the Mariners. He is proud to be "breaking" this story which just may be an attempt to scoop on a likely possibility. We'll see...
I think at this point most of the M's blogosphere is on the Pudge bandwagon, or else wanting the M's to make a trade for one of Magglio Ordonez, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, or save the money so such a trade could be made later in the season.
The press seems to be on the wait for something better bandwagon as this article on Tribnet argues that Pudge is only worth 6 HRs and his defense is deteriorating. Wait for something better. I'll admit that this was my first inclination, but I'd prefer we pick up Pudge now, and then feel free to deal Freddy for a big bat later if we need it. There is NO reason we can't do both, and signing Pudge now takes off the pressure.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out because if the negotiations stall, but the Mariners do NOT pursue Pudge, they could be setting themselves up for a huge media lambasting. So either M's management is ready to go after Pudge, or else they are praying that he signs with the Tigers quickly.
According to Alan Trammell, the Tigers pursuit of Pudge is in the "limbo stage," whatever that means.
Justin Spiro at DetroitSports.net reports that a source close to Pudge says he is going to sign with the Mariners. He is proud to be "breaking" this story which just may be an attempt to scoop on a likely possibility. We'll see...
I think at this point most of the M's blogosphere is on the Pudge bandwagon, or else wanting the M's to make a trade for one of Magglio Ordonez, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, or save the money so such a trade could be made later in the season.
The press seems to be on the wait for something better bandwagon as this article on Tribnet argues that Pudge is only worth 6 HRs and his defense is deteriorating. Wait for something better. I'll admit that this was my first inclination, but I'd prefer we pick up Pudge now, and then feel free to deal Freddy for a big bat later if we need it. There is NO reason we can't do both, and signing Pudge now takes off the pressure.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out because if the negotiations stall, but the Mariners do NOT pursue Pudge, they could be setting themselves up for a huge media lambasting. So either M's management is ready to go after Pudge, or else they are praying that he signs with the Tigers quickly.
Friday, January 23, 2004
Arbitration Scoreboard
2/18 UPDATE: Albert Pujols signs megadeal, and Pierzynski wins his case.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004.
Here is the list of 2004 arbitration filings with repeat offenders highlighted. I attempt to offer a prediction if it were to go to arbitration and highlight a key reason for my pick. I will maintain the results as they occur.
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 2003 salary arbitrations and then use that information to make a guess as to how the 2004 arbitration proceedings will go. If nothing else, its interesting to see the arbitration requests and results in 2003. All of my information comes from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get all this information.
In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot. Here's the full list...
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004.
Here is the list of 2004 arbitration filings with repeat offenders highlighted. I attempt to offer a prediction if it were to go to arbitration and highlight a key reason for my pick. I will maintain the results as they occur.
| Player | Team | 2003 Salary | 2004 Asked | 2004 Offered | Diff | Predicted Result | Actual Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Millwood | PHI | 9,900 | 12,500 | 10,000 | 2,500 | Loss (ERA up) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$11M) |
| Albert Pujols | STL | 900 | 10,500 | 7,000 | 3,500 | Win (Long-term Contract) | Signed/Big Win(7yr/$100M) |
| Eric Gagne | LA | 550 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | Win(Cy Young) | |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 1,250 | 5,000 | 4,200 | 750 | Loss(< 450 ABs) | Signed/Split ($4.5875 + 50K for 525 ABs) |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 2,875 | 4,500 | 3,400 | 1,100 | Loss(So will Split again) | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 1,750 | 3,600 | 2,500 | 1,100 | Win(OBP=.393) | Signed/Won(2-yr/$7M + $3.35M option) |
| A.J. Pierzynski | SF | 365 | 3,500 | 2,250 | 1,250 | Win(OPS=824 for C) | Win |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 1,725 | 3,300 | 2,400 | 900 | Win(OPS>900) | Signed/Win (3yr/$10.5M) |
| Vicente Padilla | PHI | 425 | 2,950 | 2,350 | 600 | Win(Consistent) | Signed/Loss (2.6M is below midpoint) |
| Shea Hillenbrand | ARI | 408 | 2,875 | 2,400 | 475 | Loss(OBP <.320) | Signed/Lost($2.6M) |
| Jay Gibbons | BAL | 375 | 2,800 | 2,400 | 400 | Win(780 OPS) | Signed/Split |
| Gabe White | NYY | 3,317 | 2,700 | 1,825 | 875 | Win(not that bad) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$2.125 with club option for 2005) |
| Johan Santana | MIN | 335 | 2,450 | 1,600 | 850 | Win(Flat Out Stud) | Lost(bad yr for pitchers) |
| Darrell May | KC | 450 | 2,200 | 1,850 | 350 | Win(K/BB improving) | Signed/Win (2yr/$4,950) |
| David Eckstein | ANA | 425 | 2,150 | 1,600 | 550 | Loss(.325 SLG,OBP) | Win(big 2002, injured 2003?) |
| Shawn Chacon | COL | 300 | 2,100 | 1,650 | 450 | Win(named closer) | Signed/Split(1yr/$1.85M with closer 100K incentives) |
| Jack Wilson | PIT | 335 | 1,850 | 1,400 | 450 | Loss(or is Released!) | Win(Pirates Mgmt is inept) |
| Guillermo Mota | LA | 675 | 1,750 | 1,200 | 550 | Win(Top reliever) | Signed/Split |
| Kyle Farnsworth | CHC | 600 | 1,700 | 1,100 | 600 | Win(K/BB up) | Signed/Split |
| Nick Johnson | MON | 364 | 1,680 | 1,250 | 400 | Loss(<350 ABs 2 yrs) | Lost |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 763 | 1,550 | 1,000 | 550 | Loss(1BB / 2inn) | Signed/Split |
| Chris Reitsma | CIN | 350 | 1,450 | 950 | 500 | Win(saves overrated) | LOST (not closer any longer?) |
| Jolbert Cabrera | LA | 435 | 1,350 | 850 | 500 | PLAYER RELEASED(see Giovanni) | Signed/Split ($1.1M w/$1.4M-2.4M Option) |
| Chad Bradford | OAK | 331 | 1,125 | 850 | 275 | Win(tough) | Signed/Lost($965K) |
| J.C. Romero | MIN | 325 | 925 | 650 | 275 | Loss(K/BB = 1) | Signed/Win(1yr/820K) |
| Damian Rolls | TB | 300 | 900 | 700 | 200 | Win(TB luck) | Signed/Split |
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 2003 salary arbitrations and then use that information to make a guess as to how the 2004 arbitration proceedings will go. If nothing else, its interesting to see the arbitration requests and results in 2003. All of my information comes from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get all this information.
In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot. Here's the full list...
| Player | Team | 2002 Salary | 2003 Asked | 2003 Offered | 2003 Salary | Won/Lost/Sign |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Maddux | ATL | 13,100 | 16,000 | 13,500 | 14,750 | Signed/Split |
| Javier Vazquez | MON | 4,775 | 7,150 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Carlos Beltran | KC | 3,500 | 6,900 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Freddy Garcia | SEA | 3,800 | 6,875 | 5,900 | 6,875 | Won |
| Billy Koch | CHW | 2,433 | 5,900 | 4,250 | 4,250 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Sidney Ponson | BAL | 2,650 | 4,750 | 3,900 | 4,250 | Signed/Lost |
| Kelvim Escobar | TOR | 2,300 | 4,600 | 3,500 | 3,900 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Orlando Hernandez | MON | 3,200 | 4,500 | 4,000 | 4,100 | Signed/Lost |
| Jose Jimenez | COL | 1,938 | 3,900 | 3,200 | 3,600 | Signed/Won |
| Raul Ibanez | KC | 800 | 3,400 | 2,750 | 3,000 | Signed/Lost |
| Terry Adams | PHI | 2,700 | 3,395 | 2,700 | 2,900 | Signed/Lost |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 1,750 | 3,250 | 2,500 | 2,875 | Signed/Split |
| Jacque Jones | MIN | 313 | 3,200 | 2,750 | 2,750 | Signed/Multiyear |
| A.J. Burnett | FLA | 368 | 3,075 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Lost |
| Mark Redman | FLA | 300 | 2,150 | 1,800 | 2,150 | Won |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 285 | 2,050 | 1,450 | 1,750 | Signed/Split |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 350 | 2,000 | 1,450 | 1,725 | Signed/Split |
| Julio Lugo | HOU | 325 | 1,800 | 1,500 | 1,575 | Signed/Lost |
| Jerry Hairston | BAL | 300 | 1,800 | 1,150 | 1,550 | Signed/Won |
| Randall Simon | PIT | 290 | 1,800 | 1,300 | 1,475 | Signed/Lost |
| Vladamir Nunez | FLA | 360 | 1,750 | 1,400 | 1,400 | Lost |
| Scott Schoenweis | ANA | 325 | 1,550 | 1,250 | 1,425 | Signed/Won |
| Erubiel Durazo | OAK | 375 | 1,400 | 900 | 1,065 | Signed/Lost |
| Scott Strickland | NYM | 355 | 1,175 | 875 | 950 | Signed/Lost |
| Francisco Cordero | TEX | 278 | 1,175 | 775 | 900 | Signed/Lost |
| Ben Davis | SEA | 350 | 1,125 | 875 | 1,000 | Signed/Split |
| Giovanni Carrara | LA | 360 | 880 | 725 | 400 | RELEASED/OUCH |
| Joey Eischen | MON | 215 | 875 | 725 | 750 | Signed/Lost |
| Bruce Chen | CIN | 300 | 830 | 700 | 700 | Lost |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 300 | 825 | 700 | 762.5 | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mirabelli | BAL | 650 | 950 | 660 | 805 | Signed/Split |
| Lou Merloni | BOS | 290 | 625 | 450 | 560 | Signed/Won |
| Dan Reichert | TB | 265 | 600 | 450 | 525 | Signed/Split |
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
Howard Lincoln on a Desert Island
Yesterday, Howard Lincoln appeared on KOMO radio and gave the following golden nugget after discussing losing Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez and comparing the two as people.
Let there be no question. I like Ken Griffey as a person. If I was on a desert island, and I had to choose between Ken and Alex, I'd pick Kenny. Believe me.
Other than that quote, the interview was about what you would expect. Bavasi will decide how the money is spent. Our goal is to win a World Series. He did say they might have gone after Vlad if they knew about Sasaki sooner. Felt they were as aggressive as they could be on Tejada. Likes all the offseason moves. Etc...
Let there be no question. I like Ken Griffey as a person. If I was on a desert island, and I had to choose between Ken and Alex, I'd pick Kenny. Believe me.
Other than that quote, the interview was about what you would expect. Bavasi will decide how the money is spent. Our goal is to win a World Series. He did say they might have gone after Vlad if they knew about Sasaki sooner. Felt they were as aggressive as they could be on Tejada. Likes all the offseason moves. Etc...
Buzzer Beater Leads Rice Over Fresno
Jason McKreith hit a 17-footer from the right side with 1 second left to give the Owls a 65-63 win at Fresno St and move into a tie with Hawaii (which beat UTEP to go 13-3, 5-1) for first place in the WAC.
The Owls showed a toughness they did not display on Saturday in Tulsa. The victory, played before Fresno State's largest crowd of the season (14,226) is Rice's first-ever win in Fresno. The game was close the whole way and the hecklers were out (although the crowd was too noisy to pick out any individual taunts)
The Owls were down 58-54 with four minutes to play before McKrieth and fellow junior Michael Harris went to work. Harris had a monster rebound jam to cut it to 58-56 and McKrieth converted a three-point play on his rebound dunk to build a 59-58 Rice lead.
Harris then made two free throws for a 61-58 lead. Fresno State responded with two free throws to cut the Rice lead to one. Using a Rice timeout, Rice coach Willis Wilson drew up a play that resulted in a layup by Harris with 30 seconds left and Rice ahead 63-60.
But Fresno State's Terry Pettis hit a long three-pointer with 18 seconds remaining to knot the score at 63. Rice called timeout and setup the final play. With time running down, McKrieth received a pass from Rashid Smith and then juked and pumped-fake Pettis off his feet before burying the game winner.
McKrieth had a game-high 24 points with eight rebounds, while Harris added 16 points and eight boards.
Rice now stands at 13-4 with a 5-1 conference record while Fresno drops to 5-2 in the conference and 9-7 overall. Rice travels to Reno on Saturday to face preseason conference favorite Nevada (10-6, 4-3) in a huge game for the Owls.
The Owls showed a toughness they did not display on Saturday in Tulsa. The victory, played before Fresno State's largest crowd of the season (14,226) is Rice's first-ever win in Fresno. The game was close the whole way and the hecklers were out (although the crowd was too noisy to pick out any individual taunts)
The Owls were down 58-54 with four minutes to play before McKrieth and fellow junior Michael Harris went to work. Harris had a monster rebound jam to cut it to 58-56 and McKrieth converted a three-point play on his rebound dunk to build a 59-58 Rice lead.
Harris then made two free throws for a 61-58 lead. Fresno State responded with two free throws to cut the Rice lead to one. Using a Rice timeout, Rice coach Willis Wilson drew up a play that resulted in a layup by Harris with 30 seconds left and Rice ahead 63-60.
But Fresno State's Terry Pettis hit a long three-pointer with 18 seconds remaining to knot the score at 63. Rice called timeout and setup the final play. With time running down, McKrieth received a pass from Rashid Smith and then juked and pumped-fake Pettis off his feet before burying the game winner.
McKrieth had a game-high 24 points with eight rebounds, while Harris added 16 points and eight boards.
Rice now stands at 13-4 with a 5-1 conference record while Fresno drops to 5-2 in the conference and 9-7 overall. Rice travels to Reno on Saturday to face preseason conference favorite Nevada (10-6, 4-3) in a huge game for the Owls.
State of the M's
The M's had their annual state of the M's Spring Training luncheon yesterday, and a number of news articles chronicle it. I'll try to summarize here, but I have borrowed quotes from the following sources, which you should read for more details (and in some cases better writing).
Tribnet - Larue - Spiezio hits all right notes is a nice get-to-know Scott Spiezio article that I highly recommend.
Times - M's optimistic, yet unfinished; can't move before Sasaki resolution
PI - Hickey - Melvin ponders lineup shift
PI - Thiel - News flash: M's boss opens up
Tribnet - Beene - M's weigh spending options Times - Kelley - Mariners will see real Melvin this year
HeraldNet - Arnold - M's: No fear of Angels
Heraldnet - Arnold - Wife's health played role in Sasaki's decision
No big spending until Kaz is gone
At least one Mariner source indicates that Kazuhiro Sasaki may be leaving the Mariners for reasons other than the stated "to be with his children." It seems that his wife, Kaori, has been ill for some time. Allen Turner, who has been Sasaki's translator for four years says "She has been in and out of the hospital. That is definitely one of the things."
And the M's brass recognizes that as sudden as this development came, it may turn around just as suddenly, so they will not spend this "free money" until Kazu's departure is official. Reports indicate this could be as soon as a "week to 10 days"
"Until the day comes that this is finished, he's got a right to change his mind," Bavasi said of Sasaki. "You're not going to hear me talk about our plans, post-Kaz. Now, do I think in my head, 'Gee, what are we going to do?' Yeah, I do."
Can you imagine the ire of M's fans if Kaz changed his mind? That would be interesting, wouldn't it?
But what about Pudge?
When asked about the M's interest in Pudge, Bavasi tap-danced with...
"I'll let you say that. I'm not going to comment on which players we're steering toward," he said. "But I wouldn't tell you not to say that."
Bavasi definitely sounds interested in Pudge, but won't play games or talk to his agent, Scott Boras, until Kaz is off the books.
"I don't want to represent us to Scott as being on the verge of being able to sign him. That's not fair to Scott, and it's patently unfair to his player. He reads the papers, believe me. He knows exactly what's going on with our club, exactly what's going on with Kaz. He knows when this is probably going to go down, and he knows the likelihood. He's on top of the whole thing."
So if the Tigers dealings drag on another week (and Boras sent a counter-offer to the Tigers 4yr/$40M deal yesterday), the M's may still get into the fray.
When asked about Greg Maddux, Bavasi seemed more inclined to slam the door shut on that possibility by indicating that the 5 man rotation was pretty much set.
Guardado is the closer
In other big developments, Bob Melvin officially stated that the M's want Eddie Guardado to be the closer to open the season.
"He has the most experience, and he's had tremendous success doing it. That's who I would look to right now. ... We do have some other guys that can do it. But if you were to pin me down right now, I would say Guardado would be our closer."
This was obviously coming, but I would still have liked to see Shiggy keep the job, just to keep our strongest pairing of Guardado and Soriano handling the important 6th/7th/8th innings.
Bullpen Shuffle
And, Dr. Evil himself, Mike Meyers is the favorite to take the top lefty role out of the pen, but they may look at other options including ones currently outside the organization.
Overall, the M's bullpen will continue to be a strength of the Mariners.
"If Sasaki does finish what he wants to do and stays in Japan, we will not be a better bullpen in his absence," Bavasi said. "We will have to do some things to fill a void. If we have to make an adjustment, we will, and we'll probably end up with the same kind of bullpen, maybe a little better, than last year's."
It seems to me that a trade that brings over a big bat and a lefty reliever for Freddy and ? may be the way to go. I'll see if I can dream up a scenario later.
"Spiezio says he's a great third baseman."
Scott Spiezio attended the luncheon, picking up brownie points with the brass and discussing his abilities to play third.
"I would say I'm a great third baseman when I get to play there a lot," said Spiezio, then stopped himself. "Oh, you're all going to put that in: 'Spiezio says he's a great third baseman.' ... I think with me being able to go to spring training and work every day at third, it will help me out tremendously, and hopefully I can live up to what I just said." He continued, "I've been working on things like making the long throws and barehanded pickups of bunts already."
Spiezio certainly wants to be back at the Hot Corner. "But I always was a first baseman in college and the minor leagues, and I always thought I would get back to third base. But after playing so long at first base, I was beginning to think maybe it wouldn't happen."
I am definitely driving the Scott Spiezio bandwagon. Naysayers look at his limited time at 3B and mediocreI believe he is going to be a huge part of our 2004 World Championship! Jump on the bandwagon folks! There's still plenty of room!
Ichiro to 3-hole in lineup shuffle?
Bob Melvin says that he will experiment with Ichiro Suzuki in different spots in the batting order.
"I can tell you that Ichiro will not be a leadoff hitter in every game in spring training," said Melvin. "Last year I was reluctant to do it because we were winning and Ichiro's a natural there. But he could bat other places in the lineup. And he will if that's what it takes to make us a better team. We didn't get to the playoffs last year, so we've got to make some changes. That could be one of them."
Then there was talk of John Olerud moving from 5th to 2nd in the lineup. Melvin said that getting Oly to rebound from a bad year would be like "adding an extra half player." Given his ability to work the count and make contact, Oly may be an ideal #2 hitter.
"Those elements of his game you can't use when he bats fifth behind Edgar, " Melvin said. "So we'll take a look at him batting second and see if that works for us."
I think both of these ideas are excellent, though there is the baseclogging factor of having Olerud bat second and would cut down on Ichiro's SBs in the 3 hole. But still, I think we need to try to get Ichiro more ABs with men on base. And spreading Olerud and Edgar out should help cut down on the number of double plays last year (where the M's had the 4th most in the AL).
A looser, more aggresive, Bob Melvin
Bob Melvin spoke a lot about possible changes to his managerial style in his second year, and I'm sure most M's fans will welcome them.
He assessed his leadership from last year and found himself wanting. Here is a collection of quotes that show where he hopes to go:
"I did come in reserved last year, and that was by design. I thought it was the right thing to do. With a veteran club, let it play. "
"And if you change in the middle of the year, it appears you're panicky."
"But, looking back, I felt there was a little bit left in the tank last year and I should have done things a little differently."
"I don't want the players to think it's going to be wholesale different, 100 percent across the board. But we didn't get where we wanted to go last year; therefore, you've got to do some things differently."
"I think I have to be a little more, not necessarily fiery, but more at the forefront in the dugout. I was real reserved, very unemotional last year, and that's really kind of not my nature. I'm not Larry Bowa by any stretch, but I'm somewhere in between Bowa and where I was last year. "
"I've learned that you have to let your emotions out at times. As a manager, if you're upset about something, everybody has to know about it. If you're happy about something, everybody needs to know about it. I maybe kind of missed that a little bit last year."
"At the end of the season, I felt like I was a wreck. A lot of that happens when you bottle up your emotions and you don't let anything out.
"I did a lot of thinking this offseason about what I need to do differently, and I think I need to let myself out a little bit more and let my emotions out a little bit more."
In addition to showing his personality, Melvin indicated that he wants to be more aggressive on the basepaths to take advantage of the better contact hitters we have and to keep out of the double plays, so look for more hit and runs, which are fun when they work and painful when they fail (see Edgar easing into the shortstops glove at 2B). Does anyone statistically check the success rate of hit & runs?
Trainer Rick Griffin's Health Report
Aaron Taylor had a partial rotator cuff tear repaired this offseason and might be ready for the start of the season.
Right-hander Freddy Garcia is recovering after operations to repair two ruptured eardrums and is expected to be ready when pitchers report for spring training Feb. 20. Garcia ruptured an eardrum in one ear when he had a head cold and sneezed while the team's jetliner was landing on a trip to Texas in 2002 (damn DFW!). On the return trip to Seattle after the series, Garcia ruptured the other eardrum. Corrective operations were postponed because patients aren't allowed to travel during recovery.
Griffin does not seem to think that the eardrum repair will have a big effect on Freddy, but is willing to give it credit if it turns Freddy around. "If he comes back and has a tremendous year and wins 20 games, throws 230 innings, then I guess it was his ears. As far as I know, there was never an equilibrium problem, never a problem with vertigo, never anything that stopped him from doing any of his work."
Former No. 1 draft pick Ryan Anderson, who has missed three years with arm troubles, has been given clearance to play catch.
Seems like good news on the medical front, though our coaches are falling apart with both Bob Melvin and Rene Lachemann getting offseason arm surgery. We'll see if the M's can get out of Spring Training without a prospect joining the bench staff by blowing out an elbow or shoulder, which seems to be an annual Rite of Spring for the Mariners.
Ranking the AL West
In a quote that will continue to fire up the other M's blogs, Bavasi, asked to rank the four AL West teams going into spring training, went with Anaheim, Seattle, Oakland and Texas, in that order. "Seattle and Oakland are real close," Bavasi said. "The Angels spent money wisely, and they spent a lot of it. I think Oakland or Seattle could get them."
Melvin seemed to back the assertion that the Angels should be the favorite, but shows no fear.
"They got better just by getting Erstad and Glaus back," Melvin said Thursday when he talked with reporters at the Mariners' annual preseason media briefing at Safeco Field. "Then you add a guy like Guerrero and a guy like Guillen, then a guy like Escobar and Colon, with the bullpen they have, they have a very strong club going into spring training.
"We've got our work cut out for us, but we still feel like we can beat them."
M's bloggers won't like this, but I think the M's are wise to position themselves as underdogs, and give them someone to shoot for. We have missed that feeling since Giambi left Oakland, and its a position we excel in. It does not mean we will compete less or more, or blow up our budget to keep up with the Moreno's. It puts the pressure on the Angels and takes it off of the M's.
Tribnet - Larue - Spiezio hits all right notes is a nice get-to-know Scott Spiezio article that I highly recommend.
Times - M's optimistic, yet unfinished; can't move before Sasaki resolution
PI - Hickey - Melvin ponders lineup shift
PI - Thiel - News flash: M's boss opens up
Tribnet - Beene - M's weigh spending options Times - Kelley - Mariners will see real Melvin this year
HeraldNet - Arnold - M's: No fear of Angels
Heraldnet - Arnold - Wife's health played role in Sasaki's decision
No big spending until Kaz is gone
At least one Mariner source indicates that Kazuhiro Sasaki may be leaving the Mariners for reasons other than the stated "to be with his children." It seems that his wife, Kaori, has been ill for some time. Allen Turner, who has been Sasaki's translator for four years says "She has been in and out of the hospital. That is definitely one of the things."
And the M's brass recognizes that as sudden as this development came, it may turn around just as suddenly, so they will not spend this "free money" until Kazu's departure is official. Reports indicate this could be as soon as a "week to 10 days"
"Until the day comes that this is finished, he's got a right to change his mind," Bavasi said of Sasaki. "You're not going to hear me talk about our plans, post-Kaz. Now, do I think in my head, 'Gee, what are we going to do?' Yeah, I do."
Can you imagine the ire of M's fans if Kaz changed his mind? That would be interesting, wouldn't it?
But what about Pudge?
When asked about the M's interest in Pudge, Bavasi tap-danced with...
"I'll let you say that. I'm not going to comment on which players we're steering toward," he said. "But I wouldn't tell you not to say that."
Bavasi definitely sounds interested in Pudge, but won't play games or talk to his agent, Scott Boras, until Kaz is off the books.
"I don't want to represent us to Scott as being on the verge of being able to sign him. That's not fair to Scott, and it's patently unfair to his player. He reads the papers, believe me. He knows exactly what's going on with our club, exactly what's going on with Kaz. He knows when this is probably going to go down, and he knows the likelihood. He's on top of the whole thing."
So if the Tigers dealings drag on another week (and Boras sent a counter-offer to the Tigers 4yr/$40M deal yesterday), the M's may still get into the fray.
When asked about Greg Maddux, Bavasi seemed more inclined to slam the door shut on that possibility by indicating that the 5 man rotation was pretty much set.
Guardado is the closer
In other big developments, Bob Melvin officially stated that the M's want Eddie Guardado to be the closer to open the season.
"He has the most experience, and he's had tremendous success doing it. That's who I would look to right now. ... We do have some other guys that can do it. But if you were to pin me down right now, I would say Guardado would be our closer."
This was obviously coming, but I would still have liked to see Shiggy keep the job, just to keep our strongest pairing of Guardado and Soriano handling the important 6th/7th/8th innings.
Bullpen Shuffle
And, Dr. Evil himself, Mike Meyers is the favorite to take the top lefty role out of the pen, but they may look at other options including ones currently outside the organization.
Overall, the M's bullpen will continue to be a strength of the Mariners.
"If Sasaki does finish what he wants to do and stays in Japan, we will not be a better bullpen in his absence," Bavasi said. "We will have to do some things to fill a void. If we have to make an adjustment, we will, and we'll probably end up with the same kind of bullpen, maybe a little better, than last year's."
It seems to me that a trade that brings over a big bat and a lefty reliever for Freddy and ? may be the way to go. I'll see if I can dream up a scenario later.
"Spiezio says he's a great third baseman."
Scott Spiezio attended the luncheon, picking up brownie points with the brass and discussing his abilities to play third.
"I would say I'm a great third baseman when I get to play there a lot," said Spiezio, then stopped himself. "Oh, you're all going to put that in: 'Spiezio says he's a great third baseman.' ... I think with me being able to go to spring training and work every day at third, it will help me out tremendously, and hopefully I can live up to what I just said." He continued, "I've been working on things like making the long throws and barehanded pickups of bunts already."
Spiezio certainly wants to be back at the Hot Corner. "But I always was a first baseman in college and the minor leagues, and I always thought I would get back to third base. But after playing so long at first base, I was beginning to think maybe it wouldn't happen."
I am definitely driving the Scott Spiezio bandwagon. Naysayers look at his limited time at 3B and mediocreI believe he is going to be a huge part of our 2004 World Championship! Jump on the bandwagon folks! There's still plenty of room!
Ichiro to 3-hole in lineup shuffle?
Bob Melvin says that he will experiment with Ichiro Suzuki in different spots in the batting order.
"I can tell you that Ichiro will not be a leadoff hitter in every game in spring training," said Melvin. "Last year I was reluctant to do it because we were winning and Ichiro's a natural there. But he could bat other places in the lineup. And he will if that's what it takes to make us a better team. We didn't get to the playoffs last year, so we've got to make some changes. That could be one of them."
Then there was talk of John Olerud moving from 5th to 2nd in the lineup. Melvin said that getting Oly to rebound from a bad year would be like "adding an extra half player." Given his ability to work the count and make contact, Oly may be an ideal #2 hitter.
"Those elements of his game you can't use when he bats fifth behind Edgar, " Melvin said. "So we'll take a look at him batting second and see if that works for us."
I think both of these ideas are excellent, though there is the baseclogging factor of having Olerud bat second and would cut down on Ichiro's SBs in the 3 hole. But still, I think we need to try to get Ichiro more ABs with men on base. And spreading Olerud and Edgar out should help cut down on the number of double plays last year (where the M's had the 4th most in the AL).
A looser, more aggresive, Bob Melvin
Bob Melvin spoke a lot about possible changes to his managerial style in his second year, and I'm sure most M's fans will welcome them.
He assessed his leadership from last year and found himself wanting. Here is a collection of quotes that show where he hopes to go:
"I did come in reserved last year, and that was by design. I thought it was the right thing to do. With a veteran club, let it play. "
"And if you change in the middle of the year, it appears you're panicky."
"But, looking back, I felt there was a little bit left in the tank last year and I should have done things a little differently."
"I don't want the players to think it's going to be wholesale different, 100 percent across the board. But we didn't get where we wanted to go last year; therefore, you've got to do some things differently."
"I think I have to be a little more, not necessarily fiery, but more at the forefront in the dugout. I was real reserved, very unemotional last year, and that's really kind of not my nature. I'm not Larry Bowa by any stretch, but I'm somewhere in between Bowa and where I was last year. "
"I've learned that you have to let your emotions out at times. As a manager, if you're upset about something, everybody has to know about it. If you're happy about something, everybody needs to know about it. I maybe kind of missed that a little bit last year."
"At the end of the season, I felt like I was a wreck. A lot of that happens when you bottle up your emotions and you don't let anything out.
"I did a lot of thinking this offseason about what I need to do differently, and I think I need to let myself out a little bit more and let my emotions out a little bit more."
In addition to showing his personality, Melvin indicated that he wants to be more aggressive on the basepaths to take advantage of the better contact hitters we have and to keep out of the double plays, so look for more hit and runs, which are fun when they work and painful when they fail (see Edgar easing into the shortstops glove at 2B). Does anyone statistically check the success rate of hit & runs?
Trainer Rick Griffin's Health Report
Aaron Taylor had a partial rotator cuff tear repaired this offseason and might be ready for the start of the season.
Right-hander Freddy Garcia is recovering after operations to repair two ruptured eardrums and is expected to be ready when pitchers report for spring training Feb. 20. Garcia ruptured an eardrum in one ear when he had a head cold and sneezed while the team's jetliner was landing on a trip to Texas in 2002 (damn DFW!). On the return trip to Seattle after the series, Garcia ruptured the other eardrum. Corrective operations were postponed because patients aren't allowed to travel during recovery.
Griffin does not seem to think that the eardrum repair will have a big effect on Freddy, but is willing to give it credit if it turns Freddy around. "If he comes back and has a tremendous year and wins 20 games, throws 230 innings, then I guess it was his ears. As far as I know, there was never an equilibrium problem, never a problem with vertigo, never anything that stopped him from doing any of his work."
Former No. 1 draft pick Ryan Anderson, who has missed three years with arm troubles, has been given clearance to play catch.
Seems like good news on the medical front, though our coaches are falling apart with both Bob Melvin and Rene Lachemann getting offseason arm surgery. We'll see if the M's can get out of Spring Training without a prospect joining the bench staff by blowing out an elbow or shoulder, which seems to be an annual Rite of Spring for the Mariners.
Ranking the AL West
In a quote that will continue to fire up the other M's blogs, Bavasi, asked to rank the four AL West teams going into spring training, went with Anaheim, Seattle, Oakland and Texas, in that order. "Seattle and Oakland are real close," Bavasi said. "The Angels spent money wisely, and they spent a lot of it. I think Oakland or Seattle could get them."
Melvin seemed to back the assertion that the Angels should be the favorite, but shows no fear.
"They got better just by getting Erstad and Glaus back," Melvin said Thursday when he talked with reporters at the Mariners' annual preseason media briefing at Safeco Field. "Then you add a guy like Guerrero and a guy like Guillen, then a guy like Escobar and Colon, with the bullpen they have, they have a very strong club going into spring training.
"We've got our work cut out for us, but we still feel like we can beat them."
M's bloggers won't like this, but I think the M's are wise to position themselves as underdogs, and give them someone to shoot for. We have missed that feeling since Giambi left Oakland, and its a position we excel in. It does not mean we will compete less or more, or blow up our budget to keep up with the Moreno's. It puts the pressure on the Angels and takes it off of the M's.
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Missing Maels Per Hour
Maels Rodriguez apparently never topped 90 MPH in his workout yesterday, and so the M's have no plans to make him any sort of offer at this time. Bavasi thinks there may be a second workout in the future but after only 15 teams attended the first workout, it seems very few teams may attend a second.
Quick updates
This article from the PI indicates that the M's will have Pat Gillick and chief Latin American scout Bob Engle on hand to watch Maels Rodriguez today. Gillick's involvement certainly shows a high degree of interest on the M's part. Rodriguez agent has backed off comments that his client expects the 4yr/$32M contract that Jose Contreras received last year to be a starting point, but Rodriguez is likely to be pricy. Twins and A's won't be there because they assume he will be too expensive.
According to the PI, the M's have had NO contact with Scott Boras about Pudge Rodriguez. However, I learned something I did not know...
Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi and Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, are old pals and talk frequently.
I don't know if I want my GM to be "pals" with Scott Boras, unless it gets me a very un-Boras-like discount.
Times man Larry Stone indicates the M's won't even think about Pudge until Kaz' situation is resolved. He does add that while the M's are unlikely to match the Tigers 4yr deal, it's possible that Rodriguez might accept a shorter deal for similar money to play for a contending team that features fellow Puerto Rican Edgar Martinez, who is idolized by his countrymen.
Jim Street at MLB gives us an update on Rafael Soriano and indicates that the M's plan on using him out of the bullpen this year, but give no quotes to that effect. I certainly think that barring trade or injury to the Fab 5 that he will start in the pen.
Japan's All-times saves leader, Shingo Takatsu, whom I wrote about last week, will sign a one-year, $1 million with option deal with the Chicago White Sox if he passes a physical. A source said that the White Sox were the only team to offer "Mr. Zero" the closer role, leaving Billy Koch once again out in the cold.
According to the PI, the M's have had NO contact with Scott Boras about Pudge Rodriguez. However, I learned something I did not know...
Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi and Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, are old pals and talk frequently.
I don't know if I want my GM to be "pals" with Scott Boras, unless it gets me a very un-Boras-like discount.
Times man Larry Stone indicates the M's won't even think about Pudge until Kaz' situation is resolved. He does add that while the M's are unlikely to match the Tigers 4yr deal, it's possible that Rodriguez might accept a shorter deal for similar money to play for a contending team that features fellow Puerto Rican Edgar Martinez, who is idolized by his countrymen.
Jim Street at MLB gives us an update on Rafael Soriano and indicates that the M's plan on using him out of the bullpen this year, but give no quotes to that effect. I certainly think that barring trade or injury to the Fab 5 that he will start in the pen.
Japan's All-times saves leader, Shingo Takatsu, whom I wrote about last week, will sign a one-year, $1 million with option deal with the Chicago White Sox if he passes a physical. A source said that the White Sox were the only team to offer "Mr. Zero" the closer role, leaving Billy Koch once again out in the cold.
Site Maintenance
I've added comments by Haloscan, so we'll see how that goes. Give it a try!
This blog is also RSS enabled thanks to the folks at baseballBlogs.org . If you want to learn more about RSS, check out their site. Also, their front page will show the latest and greatest postings in their blogosphere, so its a nice place to go if you are looking for fresh baseball commentary.
Thanks to all the M's blogosphere who have linked me and special thanks to Steve at Mariner's Wheelhouse for all the technical help.
Another interesting development in the M's blogosphere is over at Sodo Oh No, which has set up the Mariner Blogosphere Simulated Baseball League. This will be a league of Mariner bloggers playing a season of Diamond Mind Baseball. I'm not sure how this will work, but we'll see how the optimist fares against all the realists out there. I'm guessing I'll have the only team with Scott Spiezio and Raul Ibanez on it! Okay, well maybe I'll have the only team with Kevin Jarvis on it - now that's true optimism!
Now I have never played Diamond Mind before and have no clue how it works, but I am a fanalytic baseball (which is Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ's preferred name for fantasy baseball, Rotisserie baseball, etc) enthusiast - however, I typically play in NL-Only leagues so that my fanalytic baseball rooting interests rarely cross my baseball rooting interests. I highly recommend that all baseball lovers try one of the many free games out there at least once. I found that participating in these games have made me much more knowledgeable about baseball in general, and in detail about many great players I otherwise would not have paid much attention to because they were not Mariners. And where else can you finally consummate an ARod for Manny Ramierez trade!
Its now just three weeks until pitchers and catchers report! Can't wait! Go M's!!!
This blog is also RSS enabled thanks to the folks at baseballBlogs.org . If you want to learn more about RSS, check out their site. Also, their front page will show the latest and greatest postings in their blogosphere, so its a nice place to go if you are looking for fresh baseball commentary.
Thanks to all the M's blogosphere who have linked me and special thanks to Steve at Mariner's Wheelhouse for all the technical help.
Another interesting development in the M's blogosphere is over at Sodo Oh No, which has set up the Mariner Blogosphere Simulated Baseball League. This will be a league of Mariner bloggers playing a season of Diamond Mind Baseball. I'm not sure how this will work, but we'll see how the optimist fares against all the realists out there. I'm guessing I'll have the only team with Scott Spiezio and Raul Ibanez on it! Okay, well maybe I'll have the only team with Kevin Jarvis on it - now that's true optimism!
Now I have never played Diamond Mind before and have no clue how it works, but I am a fanalytic baseball (which is Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ's preferred name for fantasy baseball, Rotisserie baseball, etc) enthusiast - however, I typically play in NL-Only leagues so that my fanalytic baseball rooting interests rarely cross my baseball rooting interests. I highly recommend that all baseball lovers try one of the many free games out there at least once. I found that participating in these games have made me much more knowledgeable about baseball in general, and in detail about many great players I otherwise would not have paid much attention to because they were not Mariners. And where else can you finally consummate an ARod for Manny Ramierez trade!
Its now just three weeks until pitchers and catchers report! Can't wait! Go M's!!!
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Marvin Benard Fears Unfounded
There were some in the blogosphere that feared we were going to sign Marvin Benard to a major league contract. Instead, he gets a minor league contract and invite to the Chicago White Sox.
Even more interesting is the fact that former Mariners setup man and Indians closer Mike Jackson is giving it another shot with the White Sox. Jackson did not play last year after being cut in the Spring by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Good luck, Mike!
Even more interesting is the fact that former Mariners setup man and Indians closer Mike Jackson is giving it another shot with the White Sox. Jackson did not play last year after being cut in the Spring by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Good luck, Mike!
Heckling Rice Owls
I received my most interesting link today when I was the result of a google search on "basketball heckling rice owls"
My first thought was, "who on earth googles for heckling tips?" This was followed closely by - "Cool, someone thinks they need to heckle us." Then I thought "what else did he find?" Well, I ran the search myself, and found this nice salute to Autry Court was #1, my link #2, and not much else.
But it raises an important question... Who needs to look up how to heckle the Rice Owls in basketball? In all my years of following Rice, and watching many games on foreign soil (especially here in Austin), I cannot recall a single good Rice heckle. I recall some Aggies calling us "Wheat" or "Barley", generic "You Stink" but that's about it. The reason for this is that, frankly, in the past, they have not been needed. Rice usually elicits sympathy over ire from opposing fans as we took our beating in went home.
In fact, most of the Rice cheers are actually self-heckling in disguise. "We scored first!" or "We scored last!" was a favorite in 40+ point football defeats and "That's alright that's okay you're gonna work for us someday" always worked in a pinch.
But if I had to give help...
You could pick on our size - Rice is the smallest Divison I-A football school with fewer than 3000 undergraduate students.
You could pick on our location - Houston is humid as Hell, but with worse traffic
You could pick on our alcohol habits - Rice has two on-campus pubs and for a long time was the second largest consumer of Shiner beer in Texas next to the Astrodome. Heck even our fight song is punctuated by the line - "Stand! Cheer! Drink More Beer!"
You could pick on our insecurity - Rice still defines itself in terms of upsets of University of Texas. Our rain-soaked 19-17 football win over UT in 1994 is our greatest football moment. Even the 2003 NCAA baseball championship resulted in the student association putting out a commemorative shirt that said "I wasn't in Omaha, but neither was Texas"
You could pick on our geekiness - We are nerds and proud of it. Here's a classic Rice cheer...
E to the x, dy, dx,
E to the x, dx!
Secant, tangent, cosine, sine,
Three-point-one-four-one-five-nine,
Square root, cube root, BTU,
Compass, Slide rule, Go Rice U.!
I'll be listening closely to the Fresno State game on Thursday to see what this surfer comes up with. If you have any good Rice heckles, contact me, I'd love to hear them.
My first thought was, "who on earth googles for heckling tips?" This was followed closely by - "Cool, someone thinks they need to heckle us." Then I thought "what else did he find?" Well, I ran the search myself, and found this nice salute to Autry Court was #1, my link #2, and not much else.
But it raises an important question... Who needs to look up how to heckle the Rice Owls in basketball? In all my years of following Rice, and watching many games on foreign soil (especially here in Austin), I cannot recall a single good Rice heckle. I recall some Aggies calling us "Wheat" or "Barley", generic "You Stink" but that's about it. The reason for this is that, frankly, in the past, they have not been needed. Rice usually elicits sympathy over ire from opposing fans as we took our beating in went home.
In fact, most of the Rice cheers are actually self-heckling in disguise. "We scored first!" or "We scored last!" was a favorite in 40+ point football defeats and "That's alright that's okay you're gonna work for us someday" always worked in a pinch.
But if I had to give help...
You could pick on our size - Rice is the smallest Divison I-A football school with fewer than 3000 undergraduate students.
You could pick on our location - Houston is humid as Hell, but with worse traffic
You could pick on our alcohol habits - Rice has two on-campus pubs and for a long time was the second largest consumer of Shiner beer in Texas next to the Astrodome. Heck even our fight song is punctuated by the line - "Stand! Cheer! Drink More Beer!"
You could pick on our insecurity - Rice still defines itself in terms of upsets of University of Texas. Our rain-soaked 19-17 football win over UT in 1994 is our greatest football moment. Even the 2003 NCAA baseball championship resulted in the student association putting out a commemorative shirt that said "I wasn't in Omaha, but neither was Texas"
You could pick on our geekiness - We are nerds and proud of it. Here's a classic Rice cheer...
E to the x, dy, dx,
E to the x, dx!
Secant, tangent, cosine, sine,
Three-point-one-four-one-five-nine,
Square root, cube root, BTU,
Compass, Slide rule, Go Rice U.!
I'll be listening closely to the Fresno State game on Thursday to see what this surfer comes up with. If you have any good Rice heckles, contact me, I'd love to hear them.
Scratch Russ Branyan off the Wishlist
Russell Branyan just signed a minor league contract with the Braves - so quell your dreams of seeing 600ft HRs and awe-inspiring whiffs coming off the M's bench.
Guardado Ready To Rock
This article certainly seems to clear up any confusion about who will be the closer going forward. It shall be Eddie. "I'm ready to rock, bro," said Guardado in the interview.
Guardado said he hasn't been informed he'll be the closer, but Kohler said a club official called him and said, "Tell Eddie to get his closer face on again."
Conspiracy theorists will latch onto this tidbit...
But interestingly, Guardado's agent, Kevin Kohler, said yesterday that the subject of Sasaki's potential departure was broached during negotiations. In late November, news reports had surfaced that the Yomiuri Giants had contacted Seattle about a trade for Sasaki. Guardado was signed two weeks later.
"The timing and the way everything came down is a surprise," Kohler said of Sasaki's departure. "But everyone kind of knew it was a possibility. Some things were out there earlier (in the winter). There were some discussions about that, definitely, during the negotiations.
"Because of where they started, and where we ended up in negotiations, I think there was some definite concern from the Mariners' standpoint whether Sasaki would be back, or maybe not completely healthy again."
I'm giving M's management the benefit of the doubt. They signed Guardado with the full intention of having him setup Sasaki this year, or at least not resigning him next year. I don't think Sasaki was told to wait until Vlad is off the market before making his announcement. Makes no sense to me. But, I have seen this theory espoused on KJR and in some M's forums.
Another important note. The M's have not saved $9.5M, but more likely $8.5M as Guardado makes an extra million if he finishes more than 60 games this year.
The effort to get Sasaki off the books may take weeks, and since the Union is involved, the M's can't be sure that some snag will arise that will keep this from happening. This may nix any thoughts of signing Pudge, but I remain ever the optimist.
Guardado said he hasn't been informed he'll be the closer, but Kohler said a club official called him and said, "Tell Eddie to get his closer face on again."
Conspiracy theorists will latch onto this tidbit...
But interestingly, Guardado's agent, Kevin Kohler, said yesterday that the subject of Sasaki's potential departure was broached during negotiations. In late November, news reports had surfaced that the Yomiuri Giants had contacted Seattle about a trade for Sasaki. Guardado was signed two weeks later.
"The timing and the way everything came down is a surprise," Kohler said of Sasaki's departure. "But everyone kind of knew it was a possibility. Some things were out there earlier (in the winter). There were some discussions about that, definitely, during the negotiations.
"Because of where they started, and where we ended up in negotiations, I think there was some definite concern from the Mariners' standpoint whether Sasaki would be back, or maybe not completely healthy again."
I'm giving M's management the benefit of the doubt. They signed Guardado with the full intention of having him setup Sasaki this year, or at least not resigning him next year. I don't think Sasaki was told to wait until Vlad is off the market before making his announcement. Makes no sense to me. But, I have seen this theory espoused on KJR and in some M's forums.
Another important note. The M's have not saved $9.5M, but more likely $8.5M as Guardado makes an extra million if he finishes more than 60 games this year.
The effort to get Sasaki off the books may take weeks, and since the Union is involved, the M's can't be sure that some snag will arise that will keep this from happening. This may nix any thoughts of signing Pudge, but I remain ever the optimist.
The Pudge Bandwagon
The Pudge Rodriguez bandwagon continues to grow in the M's blogosphere. I hopped onto it and stepped on the gas last Friday. At that time, we did not have $9.5M extra to spend. Also at that time, Pudge had not received a 4yr/$40M offer from the Detroit Tigers.
I'm assuming that since Pudge seems to be pulling a Juan Gonzalez by not immediately accepting this extremely generous offer, that he must be hoping that a team with World Series aspirations may come a calling. So maybe it will not take such an extreme offer. The Marlins reportedly offered him 1yr, $10M but now can't sign him until May, and the Orioles tried 3yr/$21M. So something in between, should conceivably work.
Catcher is a position where we easily can get a significant offensive boost. Centerfield is the most likely other one. Deal Ben Davis or Dan Wilson Offer Pudge 3yr/$21M with Plate Appearance clauses (say, $1M for each 50PAs over 400 over 3yrs) that could move him to say 3yr/$30M or even 4yr/$40M (add a 1yr/$10M player option if over 450 PAs all 3 years) if he stays healthy. Get creative. Give him an opportunity to return to the AL West to have his revenge on the Rangers. And avoid Detroit.
At least give him the opportunity to say "No."
Okay, I know Dan is a 10-and-5 guy with many fans, but Lou might persuade him to be a Devil Ray. In the truly wishful thinking department, we trade Dan to Lou for Tino.
Pudge is not the hitter that Magglio Ordonez or Jim Edmonds is. But his upgrade over DanBen is at least as substantial as either of those would be over Randy Winn. If we don't make the move in the offseason, the pressure will be on the M's front office, and I don't think they want it. Cries of "Beltran or Bust" will be echoing through the blogosphere. M's management does not pull off trades well when they HAVE to.
Make the splash now.
I'm assuming that since Pudge seems to be pulling a Juan Gonzalez by not immediately accepting this extremely generous offer, that he must be hoping that a team with World Series aspirations may come a calling. So maybe it will not take such an extreme offer. The Marlins reportedly offered him 1yr, $10M but now can't sign him until May, and the Orioles tried 3yr/$21M. So something in between, should conceivably work.
Catcher is a position where we easily can get a significant offensive boost. Centerfield is the most likely other one. Deal Ben Davis or Dan Wilson Offer Pudge 3yr/$21M with Plate Appearance clauses (say, $1M for each 50PAs over 400 over 3yrs) that could move him to say 3yr/$30M or even 4yr/$40M (add a 1yr/$10M player option if over 450 PAs all 3 years) if he stays healthy. Get creative. Give him an opportunity to return to the AL West to have his revenge on the Rangers. And avoid Detroit.
At least give him the opportunity to say "No."
Okay, I know Dan is a 10-and-5 guy with many fans, but Lou might persuade him to be a Devil Ray. In the truly wishful thinking department, we trade Dan to Lou for Tino.
Pudge is not the hitter that Magglio Ordonez or Jim Edmonds is. But his upgrade over DanBen is at least as substantial as either of those would be over Randy Winn. If we don't make the move in the offseason, the pressure will be on the M's front office, and I don't think they want it. Cries of "Beltran or Bust" will be echoing through the blogosphere. M's management does not pull off trades well when they HAVE to.
Make the splash now.
Rice Spanks the Mustangs
Showing renewed energy after their poor weekend showing in Tulsa, Rice put on a defensive clinic on Tuesday, smothering the SMU Mustangs 80-40.
The win leaves Rice at 13-4 and 4-1 in WAC play as the Owls embark on a crucial West Coast road trip in which they will play at first-place Fresno State (9-6, 5-1) on Thursday and league preseason favorite Nevada (9-6, 3-3) on Saturday. You can listen to both games over the Internet if you are unable to make the trip.
Surprisingly, the Owls Saturday loss only dropped their Top 25 votes from 3 to 2 and left their RPI at a respectable 58. Andy Katz' article on ESPN gives an update on mid-tier conferences capable of getting two or more teams into the tournament. It focuses on how te mediocrity of the Big 10 and Pac 10 should provide openings for conferences like the Big West and MAC to get multiple teams in the tourney. It then mentions the WAC...
Certainly, mid-majors like Creighton (33 RPI) and Southern Illinois (RPI of 45) are both viable. But the Missouri Valley Conference has had multiple bids four straight seasons. The WAC may also have a good chance if at least two or three teams can start to create distance. The problem is that these conferences tend to beat each other up. Still, Nevada (56), Fresno State (65), UTEP (37), Rice (58), Hawaii (43) and SMU (120) have had all moments where they have looked like NCAA Tournament teams. "We should get three in there," UTEP coach Billy Gillispie said of the WAC.
Finally... for those planning a trip to Houson in February, more than 100 former Rice baseball players, including Bubba Crosby, Matt Anderson and Kenny Baugh, have committed to play in the biennial Rice alumni game Feb. 7 at Reckling Park. Rice officials said they expect the game to be a sellout. The 2003 team will receive its national championship rings prior to the game.
The win leaves Rice at 13-4 and 4-1 in WAC play as the Owls embark on a crucial West Coast road trip in which they will play at first-place Fresno State (9-6, 5-1) on Thursday and league preseason favorite Nevada (9-6, 3-3) on Saturday. You can listen to both games over the Internet if you are unable to make the trip.
Surprisingly, the Owls Saturday loss only dropped their Top 25 votes from 3 to 2 and left their RPI at a respectable 58. Andy Katz' article on ESPN gives an update on mid-tier conferences capable of getting two or more teams into the tournament. It focuses on how te mediocrity of the Big 10 and Pac 10 should provide openings for conferences like the Big West and MAC to get multiple teams in the tourney. It then mentions the WAC...
Certainly, mid-majors like Creighton (33 RPI) and Southern Illinois (RPI of 45) are both viable. But the Missouri Valley Conference has had multiple bids four straight seasons. The WAC may also have a good chance if at least two or three teams can start to create distance. The problem is that these conferences tend to beat each other up. Still, Nevada (56), Fresno State (65), UTEP (37), Rice (58), Hawaii (43) and SMU (120) have had all moments where they have looked like NCAA Tournament teams. "We should get three in there," UTEP coach Billy Gillispie said of the WAC.
Finally... for those planning a trip to Houson in February, more than 100 former Rice baseball players, including Bubba Crosby, Matt Anderson and Kenny Baugh, have committed to play in the biennial Rice alumni game Feb. 7 at Reckling Park. Rice officials said they expect the game to be a sellout. The 2003 team will receive its national championship rings prior to the game.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Don't Count on Norm for Second Lefty Role
But don't count him out yet either. Just another in a long line of setbacks has Norm experiencing extending soreness and going in for a look-see with the M's medical staff.
In other stories on MLB.com, this catcher preview says that Paul Molitor will look to shorten Ben Davis' stroke in an attempt to find more consistency.
And a Q&A session provided this interesting answer to the "Why Colbrunn for McCracken" question:
Colbrunn is better suited for the National League because his forte is pinch-hitting. The Mariners decided it makes more sense to have a versatile player like McCracken, who can also play three outfield positions and pinch-run, than another potential "baseclogger." Colbrunn doesn't run well and he didn't figure to get much playing time. Todd Hollandsworth, who recently signed with the Cubs, is a left-handed version of Colbrunn.
In other stories on MLB.com, this catcher preview says that Paul Molitor will look to shorten Ben Davis' stroke in an attempt to find more consistency.
And a Q&A session provided this interesting answer to the "Why Colbrunn for McCracken" question:
Colbrunn is better suited for the National League because his forte is pinch-hitting. The Mariners decided it makes more sense to have a versatile player like McCracken, who can also play three outfield positions and pinch-run, than another potential "baseclogger." Colbrunn doesn't run well and he didn't figure to get much playing time. Todd Hollandsworth, who recently signed with the Cubs, is a left-handed version of Colbrunn.
They're Baaaackkkk...
No, this is not about the recent signings of Joel Pineiro (3yr/$14.5M) or Gil Meche (1yr/$1.95M).
Its ARod Trade Talks are back on! Hooray! Who can't get enough of this discussion!
Okay, I changed my mind. Its about 2/5th of our pitching staff resigning.
Pineiro receives a significant bump up from the $440,000 he made last year in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Figuring that Freddy Garcia made $6.9M in his second year of eligibility, and that Joel could have similar statistics, this looks like a good signing. It guarantees security for Joel without risking more than 3 years, and if he becomes the staff stud by 2006, they are in great position to negotiate an extension.
Meche gets another year to prove his arm is sound, while getting a big raise from the $325,000 he made last year. If he proves it, the M's can buy out the rest of his arbitration eligible years and a year of free agency next year in a Pineiro-like deal.
Our rotation is set, now who will the closer be? My guess would be Eddie Guardado since he has the better track record and the bigger contract, but who should it be? Lets look at the batting average against numbers of our top four relief candidates:
BAA/OBP/SLG vs Left, then vs. Right
Eddie Guardado L - .175/.194/.222 R - .219/.264/.382
Shigetosi Hasegawa L - .246/.301/.317 R - .221/.262/.361
Rafael Soriano L - .191/.248/.287 R - .132/.200/.187
Julio Mateo L - .220/.237/.393 R - .219/.280/.370
From the looks of this, handling lefties is not a big concern for this team as Guardado and Soriano can both do the job. And either one of them would make an excellent closer. It sure would be fun to see Soriano in the closer role, but I'd prefer him to see more innings, and eventually crack the rotation. Plus, making him a closer will make him more expensive quicker.
My vote for closer goes to... closer by committee. Yeah, it will never happen since its looked at as a bad thing, but nothing irritates me more than seeing a pitcher dominate in one inning, only to be removed the following inning to another guy who gets off to a shaky start. If Guardado pitches a strong eighth, leave him out there for the ninth. Sigh, but who knows - I'm probably wrong and there's a reason they give assigned roles. Something to do with comfort factor.
And if that doesn't happen, I'll go with Shigetosi Hasegawa. He ended the year as the Mariners closer and saved 16 out of 17 games. If he falters, we move in Guardado. If he doesn't, then we have two better pitchers throwing in the more crucial 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Guardado stays in the Arthur Rhodes role, and Soriano moves up into the Jeff Nelson role with Julio Mateo moving into the Soriano role.
Its ARod Trade Talks are back on! Hooray! Who can't get enough of this discussion!
Okay, I changed my mind. Its about 2/5th of our pitching staff resigning.
Pineiro receives a significant bump up from the $440,000 he made last year in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Figuring that Freddy Garcia made $6.9M in his second year of eligibility, and that Joel could have similar statistics, this looks like a good signing. It guarantees security for Joel without risking more than 3 years, and if he becomes the staff stud by 2006, they are in great position to negotiate an extension.
Meche gets another year to prove his arm is sound, while getting a big raise from the $325,000 he made last year. If he proves it, the M's can buy out the rest of his arbitration eligible years and a year of free agency next year in a Pineiro-like deal.
Our rotation is set, now who will the closer be? My guess would be Eddie Guardado since he has the better track record and the bigger contract, but who should it be? Lets look at the batting average against numbers of our top four relief candidates:
BAA/OBP/SLG vs Left, then vs. Right
Eddie Guardado L - .175/.194/.222 R - .219/.264/.382
Shigetosi Hasegawa L - .246/.301/.317 R - .221/.262/.361
Rafael Soriano L - .191/.248/.287 R - .132/.200/.187
Julio Mateo L - .220/.237/.393 R - .219/.280/.370
From the looks of this, handling lefties is not a big concern for this team as Guardado and Soriano can both do the job. And either one of them would make an excellent closer. It sure would be fun to see Soriano in the closer role, but I'd prefer him to see more innings, and eventually crack the rotation. Plus, making him a closer will make him more expensive quicker.
My vote for closer goes to... closer by committee. Yeah, it will never happen since its looked at as a bad thing, but nothing irritates me more than seeing a pitcher dominate in one inning, only to be removed the following inning to another guy who gets off to a shaky start. If Guardado pitches a strong eighth, leave him out there for the ninth. Sigh, but who knows - I'm probably wrong and there's a reason they give assigned roles. Something to do with comfort factor.
And if that doesn't happen, I'll go with Shigetosi Hasegawa. He ended the year as the Mariners closer and saved 16 out of 17 games. If he falters, we move in Guardado. If he doesn't, then we have two better pitchers throwing in the more crucial 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Guardado stays in the Arthur Rhodes role, and Soriano moves up into the Jeff Nelson role with Julio Mateo moving into the Soriano role.
Sasaki Speaks
ESPN has a translated transcript of press conference that Kazuhiro Sasaki held with reporters on Tuesday.
In it he indicates that he wants to play in Japan, but wants to be closer to his children. When asked "Why", his first response was "Because it looked like the Mariners were being understanding and allowing me to leave now. "
Jim Caple writes a nice summary of the Sasaki situation. Its first paragraph should not be forgotten by Mariner fans...
Until Kazuhiro Sasaki joined the Mariners four years ago, Seattle fans would shudder at the very sound of the bullpen phone ringing. After being subjected to the likes of Bobby Ayala, Heathcliff Slocumb and Jose Mesa, fans knew that no lead was safe in the ninth inning.
Thank you, Kazuhiro, for ushering in the age of the Dominant Bullpen in Mariner history.
In it he indicates that he wants to play in Japan, but wants to be closer to his children. When asked "Why", his first response was "Because it looked like the Mariners were being understanding and allowing me to leave now. "
Jim Caple writes a nice summary of the Sasaki situation. Its first paragraph should not be forgotten by Mariner fans...
Until Kazuhiro Sasaki joined the Mariners four years ago, Seattle fans would shudder at the very sound of the bullpen phone ringing. After being subjected to the likes of Bobby Ayala, Heathcliff Slocumb and Jose Mesa, fans knew that no lead was safe in the ninth inning.
Thank you, Kazuhiro, for ushering in the age of the Dominant Bullpen in Mariner history.
The Future's So Bright...
Matthew Pouliot at Rotoworld gives his shot at a Top 100 Prospect List. Here's what he said about Mariner prospects:
27. Clint Nageotte - RHP Mariners - Age 23 - ETA: Aug. 2004
Previous rankings: 2003 #71, mid-2003 #19
11-7, 3.10 ERA, 127 H, 157/67 K/BB in 154 IP for Double-A San Antonio
Nageotte has a quality 91-95 mph fastball, but it’s his vicious slider that has made him a top prospect and allowed him to strike out 617 batters in 520 career innings. He’ll probably be a quality reliever as soon as the Mariners need him, but his future is in the rotation. If he can turn his changeup into an above average offering, he’ll be a No. 2 starter. As is, he looks more like a future No. 3. He likely won’t have a rotation spot until 2005 at the earliest.
29. Chris Snelling - OF Mariners - Age 22 - ETA: April 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #31, mid-2001 #26, 2002 #19, mid-2002 #21, 2003 #22, mid-2003 #23
.333/.371/.468, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 30/8 K/BB, 1 SB in 186 AB for Double-A San Antonio
.269/.333/.433, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 12/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 67 AB for Triple-A Tacoma
Snelling had a difficult time coming back from a torn ACL last season and further knee problems limited him to 253 at-bats. Because the Aussie is a reckless player center field, the injury troubles probably aren’t going to go away. Still, he’ll be a quality regular when healthy. Even though he’s played in just 96 games over the last two years, he should be ready to help the Mariners as a reserve in August or September and then become a regular in 2005. Snelling will be a .300 hitter in the majors and his walk rates will look quite a bit better than they did last year.
45. Shin-Soo Choo - OF Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #64, 2003 #44, mid-2003 #35
.286/.365/.459, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 84/44 K/BB, 18 SB in 412 AB for Single-A Inland Empire
Choo, signed out Korea in 2000, resembles Snelling as a hitter. He’s not quite so gifted, but since he does figure to be more durable, he could have the better career. The left-hander also would have been a prospect as a pitcher, and his arm will make him an asset in right field once he’s moved out of center. Choo could emerge as a Rusty Greer-type hitter. He’s blocked pretty well in Seattle, but he’ll be ready for the majors in 2006.
57. Jose Lopez - SS Mariners - Age 20 - ETA: Aug. 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #79, 2003 #50, mid-2003 #51
.258/.303/.403, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 56/27 K/BB, 18 SB in 538 AB for Double-A San Antonio
Lopez didn’t come close to matching his California League numbers (.324/.360/.464) in his first season in Double-A, but since he was just 19, that was to be expected. Although he saw time at second and third in 2003, Lopez still currently projects as a shortstop in the majors. He has the range and the arm for the position. Offensively, he projects as a .280-.290 hitter with 15-homer power. If he has a good season in Triple-A, the Mariners might hand him a starting job in 2005. More likely is that he’ll need two more years in the minors.
And three more Mariner pitchers round out his top 150
103. Travis Blackley - LHP Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: April 2005
116. Rett Johnson - RHP Mariners - Age 24 - ETA: May 2005
145. Felix Hernandez - RHP Mariners - Age 17 - ETA: 2007
27. Clint Nageotte - RHP Mariners - Age 23 - ETA: Aug. 2004
Previous rankings: 2003 #71, mid-2003 #19
11-7, 3.10 ERA, 127 H, 157/67 K/BB in 154 IP for Double-A San Antonio
Nageotte has a quality 91-95 mph fastball, but it’s his vicious slider that has made him a top prospect and allowed him to strike out 617 batters in 520 career innings. He’ll probably be a quality reliever as soon as the Mariners need him, but his future is in the rotation. If he can turn his changeup into an above average offering, he’ll be a No. 2 starter. As is, he looks more like a future No. 3. He likely won’t have a rotation spot until 2005 at the earliest.
29. Chris Snelling - OF Mariners - Age 22 - ETA: April 2005
Previous rankings: 2001 #31, mid-2001 #26, 2002 #19, mid-2002 #21, 2003 #22, mid-2003 #23
.333/.371/.468, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 30/8 K/BB, 1 SB in 186 AB for Double-A San Antonio
.269/.333/.433, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 12/5 K/BB, 1 SB in 67 AB for Triple-A Tacoma
Snelling had a difficult time coming back from a torn ACL last season and further knee problems limited him to 253 at-bats. Because the Aussie is a reckless player center field, the injury troubles probably aren’t going to go away. Still, he’ll be a quality regular when healthy. Even though he’s played in just 96 games over the last two years, he should be ready to help the Mariners as a reserve in August or September and then become a regular in 2005. Snelling will be a .300 hitter in the majors and his walk rates will look quite a bit better than they did last year.
45. Shin-Soo Choo - OF Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: 2006
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #64, 2003 #44, mid-2003 #35
.286/.365/.459, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 84/44 K/BB, 18 SB in 412 AB for Single-A Inland Empire
Choo, signed out Korea in 2000, resembles Snelling as a hitter. He’s not quite so gifted, but since he does figure to be more durable, he could have the better career. The left-hander also would have been a prospect as a pitcher, and his arm will make him an asset in right field once he’s moved out of center. Choo could emerge as a Rusty Greer-type hitter. He’s blocked pretty well in Seattle, but he’ll be ready for the majors in 2006.
57. Jose Lopez - SS Mariners - Age 20 - ETA: Aug. 2005
Previous rankings: mid-2002 #79, 2003 #50, mid-2003 #51
.258/.303/.403, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 56/27 K/BB, 18 SB in 538 AB for Double-A San Antonio
Lopez didn’t come close to matching his California League numbers (.324/.360/.464) in his first season in Double-A, but since he was just 19, that was to be expected. Although he saw time at second and third in 2003, Lopez still currently projects as a shortstop in the majors. He has the range and the arm for the position. Offensively, he projects as a .280-.290 hitter with 15-homer power. If he has a good season in Triple-A, the Mariners might hand him a starting job in 2005. More likely is that he’ll need two more years in the minors.
And three more Mariner pitchers round out his top 150
103. Travis Blackley - LHP Mariners - Age 21 - ETA: April 2005
116. Rett Johnson - RHP Mariners - Age 24 - ETA: May 2005
145. Felix Hernandez - RHP Mariners - Age 17 - ETA: 2007
Joel Pineiro Locked and Loaded for Three More Years
The Mariners took care of one of their two remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, signing Joel Pineiro to a three-year contract worth $14.5 million. The deal includes a $1.5M signing bonus and his 2004 salary will be $2.5M.
This deal takes Pineiro through his arbitration eligible years, and will look like a bargain if he remains healthy. Only Gil Meche remains eligible for arbitration this year, and its likely a deal will be done there as well, though Meche's injury history and late 2004 malaise may preclude a long-term contract.
This deal takes Pineiro through his arbitration eligible years, and will look like a bargain if he remains healthy. Only Gil Meche remains eligible for arbitration this year, and its likely a deal will be done there as well, though Meche's injury history and late 2004 malaise may preclude a long-term contract.
Sasaki Saves M's Again?
I'm sure that by now you've heard that Kazuhiro Sasaki may be forgoing his final year of his contract in order to return to Japan to be with his family. I certainly look at this as a mix of good and bad news. I will miss watching the sweat poring down Kazu's face when he stares down an opposing batter, and the smile of relief after each save. But, I also recognize that $8M is way too much to be paying any closer, let alone one who now has some injury um... baggage, especially when we have depth of great talent in our bullpen.
I'm sure much will be written about how this affects the bullpen, the starting rotation, and our search for a big hitter, and I will chime in on all three. But first, I looked over the blogosphere for reaction, and was a little dismayed at what I saw. In most places, joy and pessimism. Brief joy that money was freed up and then pessimism that Bavasi would blow the money.
Yesterday, I sent an email to several M's blogs that I link asking for a reciprocal link. One blog responded to my email to say that they do not consider themselves pessimists, but realists, and mentioned that they get nasty email calling them pessimists. I believe that I somehow got lumped into the "nasty email" category since they took the time to email me back, and have several Sasaki posts, but have not taken the time to link to my lil ol blog. Let me just state here that I use the labels optimist and pessimists loosely, and am not attacking anyone's loyalty, fan base, or analytical capability. I just am categorizing sites mainly by tone on the 2004 season - the optimists see us as improved over 2003, and the pessimists as missing an opportunity, lucky in 2003, and doomed to 3rd or even 4th place in the division.
So here's a quick review of what the blogs and writers are saying about this surprising turn of events.
Sports and Bremertonians set the tone for pessimism. Normally I'd be really jazzed about this, but I'm honestly afraid to see how Bill Bavasi will spend an extra $9.5M, I really am.
U.S.S. Mariner - great joy and guarded pessimism The offseason needed something like this; pure, unadulterated, tremendous news....Of course, five minutes after I read the news, my joy subsided as I realized we are likely to just convert this into Maels Rodriguez. However, I'll save the pessimism for when Bavasi actually does waste the money, rather than anticipating the inevitable.
Ahoy the SS Mariner will miss Sasaki and hopes that money saved will be used at trade deadline. I loved that the focus was on Sasaki and his family and a reminder that baseball players are people too. I think I'm going to move Paul into the optimist links.
At Least the Red Sox have 1918 sets the standard for pessimistic blog titles, and while he attacks Bavasi, does a good job of laying out the three M's options. Join one of Scott Boras's imaginary twenty-team bidding wars, make a splashy trade (with great rumor-mongering by mentioning Ordonez, Nomar, Helton and even Pujols), or hold onto the money for a midseason acquisition.
Dave's Mariners and More shows bubblings of optimism with Let's hope that everything works out... and mainly raises the issues that now we have to figure out who will be closer, and if its Guardado then we need not a second lefty, but a first lefty in the bullpen. And what happens to Soriano?
Fire Bavasi reminds everyone that the money can't be spent yet. This is good news, in that it frees up a bunch of payroll; it's just a shame it didn't happen earlier in the offseason, when we could've made a bigger splash.
From Basketball to Baseball goes pessimist on hearing the news, and wants money spent on Pudge. Hmm...should we start a betting pool on how Bavasi will manage to blow this amount? Much as I love Ben Davis, I'd think it would be great to see the M's get Pudge Rodriguez and move Wilson to back-up catcher (primarily catching just for Moyer).
Mariners Musings is gets his pessimism off his chest early. Now why is it that the first image in my head is one of Bill Bavasi scrambling through the Official Mariners' Rolodex for the number of Bobby Ayala's agent? ("I know it's got to be here somewhere!") and then breaks down the M's options in bullpen and what to do with the dollars. Peter wants Eric Karros now to platoon with Olerud, and Carlos Beltran in July.
He also points out what stunned me as well. John Levesque quoting bloggers in his article. I thought he was quoting U.S.S. Mariner, and maybe Mariner Wheelhouse who recently sang praises toward Levesque. Unfortunately, it turns out he's quoting comments against the PI-Weblog.
And the praiser of Levesque, Steve's Mariner Wheelhouse, goes for feigned optimism. Always the optimist, I refuse to believe that Bavasi will spend any new-found payroll on broken down 40-year old players, not when there are broken down 30-year old players available. Steve starts lightly with a few trade possibilities, but then a few beers later, comes up with the biggest rumored trade out there, sending Winn, Garcia, Olerud and cash to the Yankees for Matsui, Aaron Boone and flotsam. You need to read Steve's analysis of how this one works as an entertaining read.
The Safest Blog on the Web keeps it, well... safe. Happy to let Sasaki go, don't blow it on Pudge or Maddux.
And What the Hell Happened? is excited about having something to write about again, and lays out a few possibilities.
All in all, a lot to digest out there. The news is good in that the M's have depth in the bullpen to cover Sasaki's departure and $8M to spend. Also, one has to wonder how much M's management knew of this possibility. The move to sign Guardado certainly looks even better with this knowledge. And how about Maels Rodriguez - does this increase the M's chances of signing him? M's management has a tough task ahead of them if they do not go for the *splash* move now. If they promise fans a midseason move with the money, this hurts their negotiating position with other teams that know the M's need to make a move. If they don't make any promises or additional moves, how much more ranting and raving will come from the fans and the blogs?
I'm sure much will be written about how this affects the bullpen, the starting rotation, and our search for a big hitter, and I will chime in on all three. But first, I looked over the blogosphere for reaction, and was a little dismayed at what I saw. In most places, joy and pessimism. Brief joy that money was freed up and then pessimism that Bavasi would blow the money.
Yesterday, I sent an email to several M's blogs that I link asking for a reciprocal link. One blog responded to my email to say that they do not consider themselves pessimists, but realists, and mentioned that they get nasty email calling them pessimists. I believe that I somehow got lumped into the "nasty email" category since they took the time to email me back, and have several Sasaki posts, but have not taken the time to link to my lil ol blog. Let me just state here that I use the labels optimist and pessimists loosely, and am not attacking anyone's loyalty, fan base, or analytical capability. I just am categorizing sites mainly by tone on the 2004 season - the optimists see us as improved over 2003, and the pessimists as missing an opportunity, lucky in 2003, and doomed to 3rd or even 4th place in the division.
So here's a quick review of what the blogs and writers are saying about this surprising turn of events.
Sports and Bremertonians set the tone for pessimism. Normally I'd be really jazzed about this, but I'm honestly afraid to see how Bill Bavasi will spend an extra $9.5M, I really am.
U.S.S. Mariner - great joy and guarded pessimism The offseason needed something like this; pure, unadulterated, tremendous news....Of course, five minutes after I read the news, my joy subsided as I realized we are likely to just convert this into Maels Rodriguez. However, I'll save the pessimism for when Bavasi actually does waste the money, rather than anticipating the inevitable.
Ahoy the SS Mariner will miss Sasaki and hopes that money saved will be used at trade deadline. I loved that the focus was on Sasaki and his family and a reminder that baseball players are people too. I think I'm going to move Paul into the optimist links.
At Least the Red Sox have 1918 sets the standard for pessimistic blog titles, and while he attacks Bavasi, does a good job of laying out the three M's options. Join one of Scott Boras's imaginary twenty-team bidding wars, make a splashy trade (with great rumor-mongering by mentioning Ordonez, Nomar, Helton and even Pujols), or hold onto the money for a midseason acquisition.
Dave's Mariners and More shows bubblings of optimism with Let's hope that everything works out... and mainly raises the issues that now we have to figure out who will be closer, and if its Guardado then we need not a second lefty, but a first lefty in the bullpen. And what happens to Soriano?
Fire Bavasi reminds everyone that the money can't be spent yet. This is good news, in that it frees up a bunch of payroll; it's just a shame it didn't happen earlier in the offseason, when we could've made a bigger splash.
From Basketball to Baseball goes pessimist on hearing the news, and wants money spent on Pudge. Hmm...should we start a betting pool on how Bavasi will manage to blow this amount? Much as I love Ben Davis, I'd think it would be great to see the M's get Pudge Rodriguez and move Wilson to back-up catcher (primarily catching just for Moyer).
Mariners Musings is gets his pessimism off his chest early. Now why is it that the first image in my head is one of Bill Bavasi scrambling through the Official Mariners' Rolodex for the number of Bobby Ayala's agent? ("I know it's got to be here somewhere!") and then breaks down the M's options in bullpen and what to do with the dollars. Peter wants Eric Karros now to platoon with Olerud, and Carlos Beltran in July.
He also points out what stunned me as well. John Levesque quoting bloggers in his article. I thought he was quoting U.S.S. Mariner, and maybe Mariner Wheelhouse who recently sang praises toward Levesque. Unfortunately, it turns out he's quoting comments against the PI-Weblog.
And the praiser of Levesque, Steve's Mariner Wheelhouse, goes for feigned optimism. Always the optimist, I refuse to believe that Bavasi will spend any new-found payroll on broken down 40-year old players, not when there are broken down 30-year old players available. Steve starts lightly with a few trade possibilities, but then a few beers later, comes up with the biggest rumored trade out there, sending Winn, Garcia, Olerud and cash to the Yankees for Matsui, Aaron Boone and flotsam. You need to read Steve's analysis of how this one works as an entertaining read.
The Safest Blog on the Web keeps it, well... safe. Happy to let Sasaki go, don't blow it on Pudge or Maddux.
And What the Hell Happened? is excited about having something to write about again, and lays out a few possibilities.
All in all, a lot to digest out there. The news is good in that the M's have depth in the bullpen to cover Sasaki's departure and $8M to spend. Also, one has to wonder how much M's management knew of this possibility. The move to sign Guardado certainly looks even better with this knowledge. And how about Maels Rodriguez - does this increase the M's chances of signing him? M's management has a tough task ahead of them if they do not go for the *splash* move now. If they promise fans a midseason move with the money, this hurts their negotiating position with other teams that know the M's need to make a move. If they don't make any promises or additional moves, how much more ranting and raving will come from the fans and the blogs?
Monday, January 19, 2004
Tulsa spelled backward is A Slut
My apologies to anyone who watched the debacle that was the Rice Owls losing to Tulsa by 6 points on ESPN2 this Saturday. I've never seen Rice play as timid as they did during the start of the game as they fell behind 31-8. Okay, never seen THIS Rice team play that timid. I remember during my heckling days when we played top-ranked Arkansas at home and coach Nolan Richardson was standing on the court yelling instructions as his team jumped out to a 32-6 lead on the Owls. Trying to stir things up from our seats directly behind the opponents bench, I yelled, "Sit down coach, you don't belong on the court!" Coach Richardson turned around without missing a beat and deadpanned, "From the look of things, neither does Rice." Ouch.
Well, kudos to the Owls for coming back on Saturday, regaining their composure and making it close, but damn... This was a chance to get a monkey off our back and instead we play scared for 10 minutes and get shot in the RPI, losing to a 6-9 Tulsa team.
Admittedly, the energy of the Tulsa crowd was impressive, and certainly unlike anything the Owls have seen up to now, since their losses to top-ranked Connecticut and Stanford both came in the cozy confines of Autry Court. Lets hope the Owls can shake off this defeat quickly in time to host SMU on Tuesday.
Well, kudos to the Owls for coming back on Saturday, regaining their composure and making it close, but damn... This was a chance to get a monkey off our back and instead we play scared for 10 minutes and get shot in the RPI, losing to a 6-9 Tulsa team.
Admittedly, the energy of the Tulsa crowd was impressive, and certainly unlike anything the Owls have seen up to now, since their losses to top-ranked Connecticut and Stanford both came in the cozy confines of Autry Court. Lets hope the Owls can shake off this defeat quickly in time to host SMU on Tuesday.
"We operate at the mercy of the worst decisions of our dumbest competitors."
This fantastic quote from Jerry Reinsdorf was surfaced again in a New York Daily News article which looks at the growing trend on shorter, incentive-laden contracts in baseball. It focuses on the play the Mets made for Vlad which was practically stolen from the Mariner Management Guide to Long Term Contracts. The deal they offered was 3yr/$30M guaranteed and 400 plate appearances each year would have upped it to 5yr/$71M. Instead he signed for 5yr/$70M with the Angels, with the Angels holding an option to make it 6yr/$82M.
In an era where insurance will no longer cover ridiculous contracts, this is the way to go, and I am very happy that M's management is leading the way as shown by their recent negotiating stances. The article details further Arte Moreno's extravagances for the Angels, spending $145.75 million on four free agents - Vlad, Kelvim Escobar, Jose Guillen, and Bartolo Colon. The Colon deal is met with the most raised eyebrows. "Arte bid against himself on that one," said one high-ranking major league exec. "Nobody was going four years with Colon." Time will tell how much this "Splash" will help or hurt the Angels, but I remain optimistic that the M's are on the right path and that the Angels have done more harm than good to their franchise.
In an era where insurance will no longer cover ridiculous contracts, this is the way to go, and I am very happy that M's management is leading the way as shown by their recent negotiating stances. The article details further Arte Moreno's extravagances for the Angels, spending $145.75 million on four free agents - Vlad, Kelvim Escobar, Jose Guillen, and Bartolo Colon. The Colon deal is met with the most raised eyebrows. "Arte bid against himself on that one," said one high-ranking major league exec. "Nobody was going four years with Colon." Time will tell how much this "Splash" will help or hurt the Angels, but I remain optimistic that the M's are on the right path and that the Angels have done more harm than good to their franchise.
Non-Roster Invitees
The list of non-roster invitees to Mariners Spring Training came out over the weekend, and includes six left-handed relievers vying for the coveted "Second Lefty in the Pen" slot (and FIRST lefty if, gawd forbid, something should happen to Steady Eddie).
The six lefties include Mike Myers, Mariner minor league starters Travis Blackley and Craig Anderson, relievers George Sherrill and Randy Williams, and also free agent Jose Nunez whose nice start in the bigs was cut short by a favorite M's problem, the shoulder injury.
This August 2003 article about Nunez' return should temper enthusiasm about his numbers.
Although his numbers are great, the Padres aren't sure he will survive. Many people in the Padres' organization feel it's only a matter of time before Nunez's shoulder blows up again.
When you invite extra pitchers, whaddya need? That's right, extra catchers. The immortal Pat Borders (and potentially Freddy's personal catcher) will be joined by Luis Oliveros and Rene Rivera, who is probably the M's top catching prospect right now, for what that's worth. Luckily if something should happen to Dan Wilson or Pat Borders (gawd forbid?), we have Big Ben.
Cracking the Safe gives some good info on Bucky Jacobsen, who seems to be the only invitee with his own Fan Club. Bucky is also endorsed by Mariner Wheelhouse as a good signing, but a poor platoon-mate for John Olerud, whose last hit against a lefty was in the days of "Who Let the Dogs Out."
The guys to watch may be Shin-Soo Choo, Jose Lopez, and last year's 37th pick Adam Jones. Lopez is probably closest to the bigs and while his .303 OBP in AA is pretty unimpressive, the fact that he's only 19 in AA is downright exciting. Some conjecture that Aurilia is just keeping shortstop warm for a year for this kid. Jones has a great arm, but we need to find out if he can hit, or takes the Rafael Soriano career route to be a big league pitcher.
Another guy who can hit is AJ Zapp . Zapp was a 1996 1st round pick and top prospect for the Braves for a few years before they gave up on him. Last year in San Antonio, he rediscovered his swing and launches 26 HRs to put himself in contention for a cup of coffee in the bigs if something (gawd forbid) should happen to John Olerud. Mickey Lopez knows how to take a walk, but looks to be a Tacoma infield fixture.
And my favorite name is Hiram Bocachica. He's a former top prospect who's gotten some MLB playing time, but done nothing with it. Just saying that last name makes me think of the song Oh Yeah from Ferris Bueller's Day Off (you know where they show the 1961 Ferrari 250 GT California). Instead of the "cheeka-cheeka" sound of percusion, imagine "Boca-chica!". Sorry, but that's the song I hear...
Here's the full list...
· LHP Craig Anderson
· LHP Travis Blackley
· LHP Mike Myers
· LHP Jose Nunez
· LHP George Sherrill
· LHP Randy Williams
· C Pat Borders
· C Luis Oliveros
· C Rene Rivera
· 1B Bucky Jacobsen
· SS Adam Jones
· SS Jose Lopez
· IF Mickey Lopez
· 1B AJ Zapp
· OF Shin-Soo Choo
· OF Hiram Bocachica
The six lefties include Mike Myers, Mariner minor league starters Travis Blackley and Craig Anderson, relievers George Sherrill and Randy Williams, and also free agent Jose Nunez whose nice start in the bigs was cut short by a favorite M's problem, the shoulder injury.
This August 2003 article about Nunez' return should temper enthusiasm about his numbers.
Although his numbers are great, the Padres aren't sure he will survive. Many people in the Padres' organization feel it's only a matter of time before Nunez's shoulder blows up again.
When you invite extra pitchers, whaddya need? That's right, extra catchers. The immortal Pat Borders (and potentially Freddy's personal catcher) will be joined by Luis Oliveros and Rene Rivera, who is probably the M's top catching prospect right now, for what that's worth. Luckily if something should happen to Dan Wilson or Pat Borders (gawd forbid?), we have Big Ben.
Cracking the Safe gives some good info on Bucky Jacobsen, who seems to be the only invitee with his own Fan Club. Bucky is also endorsed by Mariner Wheelhouse as a good signing, but a poor platoon-mate for John Olerud, whose last hit against a lefty was in the days of "Who Let the Dogs Out."
The guys to watch may be Shin-Soo Choo, Jose Lopez, and last year's 37th pick Adam Jones. Lopez is probably closest to the bigs and while his .303 OBP in AA is pretty unimpressive, the fact that he's only 19 in AA is downright exciting. Some conjecture that Aurilia is just keeping shortstop warm for a year for this kid. Jones has a great arm, but we need to find out if he can hit, or takes the Rafael Soriano career route to be a big league pitcher.
Another guy who can hit is AJ Zapp . Zapp was a 1996 1st round pick and top prospect for the Braves for a few years before they gave up on him. Last year in San Antonio, he rediscovered his swing and launches 26 HRs to put himself in contention for a cup of coffee in the bigs if something (gawd forbid) should happen to John Olerud. Mickey Lopez knows how to take a walk, but looks to be a Tacoma infield fixture.
And my favorite name is Hiram Bocachica. He's a former top prospect who's gotten some MLB playing time, but done nothing with it. Just saying that last name makes me think of the song Oh Yeah from Ferris Bueller's Day Off (you know where they show the 1961 Ferrari 250 GT California). Instead of the "cheeka-cheeka" sound of percusion, imagine "Boca-chica!". Sorry, but that's the song I hear...
Here's the full list...
· LHP Craig Anderson
· LHP Travis Blackley
· LHP Mike Myers
· LHP Jose Nunez
· LHP George Sherrill
· LHP Randy Williams
· C Pat Borders
· C Luis Oliveros
· C Rene Rivera
· 1B Bucky Jacobsen
· SS Adam Jones
· SS Jose Lopez
· IF Mickey Lopez
· 1B AJ Zapp
· OF Shin-Soo Choo
· OF Hiram Bocachica
Sunday, January 18, 2004
Does He Make You Horny?
Amazingly, the Mariners signed actor-comedian Mike Myers to a minor league contract and plan to invite him to Spring Training. I'm assuming this is a publicity stunt similar to the Padres inviting Garth Brooks or this year, Rey Ordonez.
Pretty exciting that Dieter is competing to become the second lefty in the bullpen. I can just hear Tim McCarver calling the 2004 World Series...
Waving Hands
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Coming in from the bullpen with his Goldmember, its lefty Mike Myers who needs to Austin Power his way past Barry Bonds to close out game 7 of the World Series.
The first pitch... Schhaaawing! and a miss! Oooh he Austin Powered that right past Dr. Bonds. Second pitch... another swing another miss! Barry can't touch his monkey! Now Mike sets up, pinkie in mouth, Dr. Evil style. Winds up his Goldmember and there's the pitch. Yeaaaahhh Baby! Strike three looking! Barry goes Shrek cracking the bat over his knees and Edgar is getting more than a little faklempt as the M's swarm off the bench in celebration of their first World Series Championship!!!
And monkeys might fly out of my butt! Hah! Hooked ya! Fished In!
Here's a subject... SandFrog is neither a beach, nor an amphibian... Discuss.
Yes. You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll hurl. Your 2004 M's!!!
Okay, seriously...
Mike Myers the pitcher signed a minor league contract and looks like a likely candidate for the 2nd lefty out of the bullpen. I like that this is not a major league contract as it gives us time to try to evaluate and/or trade some of our newly acquired "talent." Myers is a respectable LOOGY (Lefty one-out guy courtesy of John Sickels) who has played for Melvin in the past, and has held lefties to a respectable .236 average over last three years.
And I'm hoping he makes the roster so that I may be the only Blog or writer who cleverly thinks to play off the fact that he shares his name with a very funny guy.
Pretty exciting that Dieter is competing to become the second lefty in the bullpen. I can just hear Tim McCarver calling the 2004 World Series...
Waving Hands
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Dee Dee Lee Dee
Coming in from the bullpen with his Goldmember, its lefty Mike Myers who needs to Austin Power his way past Barry Bonds to close out game 7 of the World Series.
The first pitch... Schhaaawing! and a miss! Oooh he Austin Powered that right past Dr. Bonds. Second pitch... another swing another miss! Barry can't touch his monkey! Now Mike sets up, pinkie in mouth, Dr. Evil style. Winds up his Goldmember and there's the pitch. Yeaaaahhh Baby! Strike three looking! Barry goes Shrek cracking the bat over his knees and Edgar is getting more than a little faklempt as the M's swarm off the bench in celebration of their first World Series Championship!!!
And monkeys might fly out of my butt! Hah! Hooked ya! Fished In!
Here's a subject... SandFrog is neither a beach, nor an amphibian... Discuss.
Yes. You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll hurl. Your 2004 M's!!!
Okay, seriously...
Mike Myers the pitcher signed a minor league contract and looks like a likely candidate for the 2nd lefty out of the bullpen. I like that this is not a major league contract as it gives us time to try to evaluate and/or trade some of our newly acquired "talent." Myers is a respectable LOOGY (Lefty one-out guy courtesy of John Sickels) who has played for Melvin in the past, and has held lefties to a respectable .236 average over last three years.
And I'm hoping he makes the roster so that I may be the only Blog or writer who cleverly thinks to play off the fact that he shares his name with a very funny guy.
Friday, January 16, 2004
Dreaming in the Rain...
Big Ben avoids arbitration, signing a 1-year, $1.4M contract. And Pudge took a physical with Detroit. Seems to me like we should sign Pudge and his 900-ish OPS to the 3-year (say $24M instead of his desired $30M) offer he's looking for, keep Ben Davis and his 700ish OPS as the backup at catcher, 1B and DH, and reunite Dan Wilson and his 600-ish OPS with Lou in Tampa. Catcher is one area we could substantially improve our offense. That would give the M's the splash their fans crave, and bring another high-character guy in Pudge into the clubhouse.
Meanwhile...
Scratch Scott Sauerbeck off the list of available lefties. He's having shoulder surgery that will shut him down for the year. He failed physicals with the Cubs and the Reds so it wasn't like he was planning on signing with the M's anyway, which actually makes me happy. Now if we can avoid signing Mark Guthrie and Mike Meyers, we'll be doing well here.
Larry Stone of the Times reports that Maels Rodriguez considers the M's one of the top 3 or 4 places he's like to go. Apparently his throwing session is next Thursday and was not yesterday. No mention of whether or not the M's are interested in the guy, except from the words of the agent. I'm all for adding more talent. You can never have too much pitching, and with our crazy budgeting process, if I recall right, signing foreigners comes from a different budget than the regular budget or some such. So, sign him and give him and Rafael Soriano rotation spots already! Give Gil Meche a rest with the long relief role and have him fresh for the second half, and deal Freddy Garcia for some serious pop a la Jim Edmonds. Ahhh, but it is this kind of dreaming that leads to pessimism among the M's faithful when it does not happen, so I'll shut my yap.
In the M's blogosphere, Steve's Mariner Wheelhouse has an excellent question for the M's doctors - why so many freakin arm injuries, and what are you doing about it. And my favorite is hearing more about Yoda and SandFrogfrom Peter White's excellent Mariner Musings. I sure hope we get to see more of Chris Snelling in the bigs soon. And Sodo Oh No has decided to put M's bloggers into a steel cage death match which sounds like fun, though I've never played Diamond Mind Baseball. And the title brings to mind a question I had.. is it blogsphere or blogosphere?
Man... I signed two free agents (Pudge and Maels) at roughly $16M a year putting our budget into the Angels zone and dreamed up 2 trades (Dan Wilson salary purge and Freddy+ for Edmonds) in one post. I see why others who do this regularly start getting down on the M's. Okay, I'm going to blame it on the rain here in Texas screwing up my weekend plans and getting me down. Its much easier to be an optimist when the sun is shining and its 70 degrees in January.
26 days until pitchers and catchers report!
Meanwhile...
Scratch Scott Sauerbeck off the list of available lefties. He's having shoulder surgery that will shut him down for the year. He failed physicals with the Cubs and the Reds so it wasn't like he was planning on signing with the M's anyway, which actually makes me happy. Now if we can avoid signing Mark Guthrie and Mike Meyers, we'll be doing well here.
Larry Stone of the Times reports that Maels Rodriguez considers the M's one of the top 3 or 4 places he's like to go. Apparently his throwing session is next Thursday and was not yesterday. No mention of whether or not the M's are interested in the guy, except from the words of the agent. I'm all for adding more talent. You can never have too much pitching, and with our crazy budgeting process, if I recall right, signing foreigners comes from a different budget than the regular budget or some such. So, sign him and give him and Rafael Soriano rotation spots already! Give Gil Meche a rest with the long relief role and have him fresh for the second half, and deal Freddy Garcia for some serious pop a la Jim Edmonds. Ahhh, but it is this kind of dreaming that leads to pessimism among the M's faithful when it does not happen, so I'll shut my yap.
In the M's blogosphere, Steve's Mariner Wheelhouse has an excellent question for the M's doctors - why so many freakin arm injuries, and what are you doing about it. And my favorite is hearing more about Yoda and SandFrogfrom Peter White's excellent Mariner Musings. I sure hope we get to see more of Chris Snelling in the bigs soon. And Sodo Oh No has decided to put M's bloggers into a steel cage death match which sounds like fun, though I've never played Diamond Mind Baseball. And the title brings to mind a question I had.. is it blogsphere or blogosphere?
Man... I signed two free agents (Pudge and Maels) at roughly $16M a year putting our budget into the Angels zone and dreamed up 2 trades (Dan Wilson salary purge and Freddy+ for Edmonds) in one post. I see why others who do this regularly start getting down on the M's. Okay, I'm going to blame it on the rain here in Texas screwing up my weekend plans and getting me down. Its much easier to be an optimist when the sun is shining and its 70 degrees in January.
26 days until pitchers and catchers report!
Thursday, January 15, 2004
Caple Does Frazier
This is a must read for the Seattle sports fan.
Put Me in Coach, I'm Ready To Play...
Not much noteworthy in this article on Willie Bloomquist's 5 week trip to Puerto Rico. He caught the flu, started slow, finished with a .289 average in eighty some odd at bats.
Most interesting part is that he played mostly centerfield and may loom as a potential backup to Winn in this spot. Seems kind of scary to me, but Willie had fun, and hey, isn't that what its all about?
"That is one position I haven't played a lot and it was a lot of fun," he said. "I really enjoyed it and felt I played the position pretty well. I didn't make any errors and had three or four assists, but Randy [Winn] doesn't have to worry about his job being in jeopardy."
Most interesting part is that he played mostly centerfield and may loom as a potential backup to Winn in this spot. Seems kind of scary to me, but Willie had fun, and hey, isn't that what its all about?
"That is one position I haven't played a lot and it was a lot of fun," he said. "I really enjoyed it and felt I played the position pretty well. I didn't make any errors and had three or four assists, but Randy [Winn] doesn't have to worry about his job being in jeopardy."
Shingo Takatsu
Japan's new all-time saves leader, Shingo Takatsu, threw for scouts from 26 MLB teams yesterday in Irvine, CA. He currently has a $2.6M offer to return to the Yakult Swallows as their closer, but he wants to see if he can land a job in MLB. If he does, it will likely be for less money, and as a setup man.
A look at the stats of this 35-year-old sidearming sinkerballer shows that he is probably headed back to Japan. 21 walks, 26 strikeouts and 42 hits in 42 innings look like the stats of someone who has the "proven closer" label on him, and not someone who has great closer stuff. Think Danny Graves and not Kazuhiro Sasaki. And here is what Daimajin did in Japan. Over his last two seasons with Yakult, Kaz pitched nearly 80 innings, giving up 51 hits, 19 walks, and striking out 112! That earned him a 3-year, $14M+ contract from the M's.
A better comparison might be Shigetoshi Hasegawa who made $575,000 in 1997 in his first season with the Angels and is probably much more in line with the type of money Takatsu could expect if he comes over. I'm guessing that an 80% paycut is too tough to "Swallow" and that's where Takatsu remains unless a team looking to make a little "splash" ups the ante a bit and lays down $1M+ for their share of the Japanese public.
A look at the stats of this 35-year-old sidearming sinkerballer shows that he is probably headed back to Japan. 21 walks, 26 strikeouts and 42 hits in 42 innings look like the stats of someone who has the "proven closer" label on him, and not someone who has great closer stuff. Think Danny Graves and not Kazuhiro Sasaki. And here is what Daimajin did in Japan. Over his last two seasons with Yakult, Kaz pitched nearly 80 innings, giving up 51 hits, 19 walks, and striking out 112! That earned him a 3-year, $14M+ contract from the M's.
A better comparison might be Shigetoshi Hasegawa who made $575,000 in 1997 in his first season with the Angels and is probably much more in line with the type of money Takatsu could expect if he comes over. I'm guessing that an 80% paycut is too tough to "Swallow" and that's where Takatsu remains unless a team looking to make a little "splash" ups the ante a bit and lays down $1M+ for their share of the Japanese public.
Wednesday, January 14, 2004
Baseball Players Have Lives Too
Peter White has one of the best written Mariner blogs at Mariner Musings and today has begun to identify the 10 worst Mariner seasons of all time.
What struck me is that at #7, he had Dan Meyer's 1978 season. Dan Meyer is one of the reasons I am a Mariner fan today. I moved to Redmond, WA in the Summer of 1976, and by 1977, I was in childhood hero-worship heaven as I discovered that the neighborhood I lived in housed not only Jim Zorn (he had the coolest car - a silver 280Z with the Seahawks logo down the side where the "280Z" used to be), but a young 1B from Detroit named Dan Meyer. I have memories from that first year going over to his house, and hearing him tell stories about his playing days with the Tigers, and what Rupert Jones (RUUUUPPPE) was really like.
His wife was beautiful and was probably my first crush. And they had an adorable son about the same age as my little brother. Life was good in 1977 for Dan Meyer. He hit 22 HRs and drove in 90 runs, batting .273 in 159 games. The three years prior he hit a combined 13 HRs in 235 games.
But, in 1978, the wheels came off of Dan Meyer's life in Redmond and on the Mariners. Dan got injured and seemed more distant (to me at least, like I would know as a 9 year old). I don't know all the details, nor would I publish them if I did, but suffice to say, there was a separation and divorce, and while he is away there was a break-in incident at their home.
I remembered that Dan had a bad year, and that after he moved away, and with his daughter and son still living nearby, I stopped rooting for him as much. Its only from looking at these stats again that I realize how bad of a year he had at the plate. I'm guessing that a 25-year-old going through all these horrible events in his life, might let that affect him on the playing field.
Just something to remember when you are using statistics to analyze a players tendencies. They are real people with real lives outside baseball. And what happens there can affect the player and the team. So don't completely dismiss the Mariners when they look strongly at a person's character and team chemistry, and maybe have a penchant for more mature players. There's a reason the M's have been one of the winningest teams in all of baseball for the past 9 years.
What struck me is that at #7, he had Dan Meyer's 1978 season. Dan Meyer is one of the reasons I am a Mariner fan today. I moved to Redmond, WA in the Summer of 1976, and by 1977, I was in childhood hero-worship heaven as I discovered that the neighborhood I lived in housed not only Jim Zorn (he had the coolest car - a silver 280Z with the Seahawks logo down the side where the "280Z" used to be), but a young 1B from Detroit named Dan Meyer. I have memories from that first year going over to his house, and hearing him tell stories about his playing days with the Tigers, and what Rupert Jones (RUUUUPPPE) was really like.
His wife was beautiful and was probably my first crush. And they had an adorable son about the same age as my little brother. Life was good in 1977 for Dan Meyer. He hit 22 HRs and drove in 90 runs, batting .273 in 159 games. The three years prior he hit a combined 13 HRs in 235 games.
But, in 1978, the wheels came off of Dan Meyer's life in Redmond and on the Mariners. Dan got injured and seemed more distant (to me at least, like I would know as a 9 year old). I don't know all the details, nor would I publish them if I did, but suffice to say, there was a separation and divorce, and while he is away there was a break-in incident at their home.
I remembered that Dan had a bad year, and that after he moved away, and with his daughter and son still living nearby, I stopped rooting for him as much. Its only from looking at these stats again that I realize how bad of a year he had at the plate. I'm guessing that a 25-year-old going through all these horrible events in his life, might let that affect him on the playing field.
Just something to remember when you are using statistics to analyze a players tendencies. They are real people with real lives outside baseball. And what happens there can affect the player and the team. So don't completely dismiss the Mariners when they look strongly at a person's character and team chemistry, and maybe have a penchant for more mature players. There's a reason the M's have been one of the winningest teams in all of baseball for the past 9 years.
An A's Perspective
If you think Mariner fans are unhappy with the Angels upping their payroll to $110M and loading their offense with Vlad Guerrero, imagine being an A's fan.
"If you want to give me $50 million more, I promise you we won't blow the 2-0 lead," is what Billy Beane said following the A's Game 5 loss to Boston in the ALDS. This excellent review of the state of the AL West from the A's perspective emphasizes how scary the Angels have become...
Well written article and here's my favorite part:
Beane and Paul DePodesta are once again arranging their peanuts to stage yet another unlikely AL West shell game. It's always easier to remain smug and brilliant when the opening deal includes three aces and the competition has to continue to try outdrawing (re: outspending) you.
Look, the A's are going to remain highly competitive in the division as long as Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson comprise three-fifths of their rotation and they can patch together enough stick work to squeeze out three to four runs per game.
That said, the AL West just became a three-way pit bull fight of a division, with poor Alex Rodriguez and the Texas Rangers assuming the role of high-priced dog meat.
"If you want to give me $50 million more, I promise you we won't blow the 2-0 lead," is what Billy Beane said following the A's Game 5 loss to Boston in the ALDS. This excellent review of the state of the AL West from the A's perspective emphasizes how scary the Angels have become...
Well written article and here's my favorite part:
Beane and Paul DePodesta are once again arranging their peanuts to stage yet another unlikely AL West shell game. It's always easier to remain smug and brilliant when the opening deal includes three aces and the competition has to continue to try outdrawing (re: outspending) you.
Look, the A's are going to remain highly competitive in the division as long as Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson comprise three-fifths of their rotation and they can patch together enough stick work to squeeze out three to four runs per game.
That said, the AL West just became a three-way pit bull fight of a division, with poor Alex Rodriguez and the Texas Rangers assuming the role of high-priced dog meat.
Mariners eyeing Cuban Defector?
The PI reports that the Mariners will have scouts on hand to watch Cuban defector Maels (pronounced "Miles") Rodriguez throw tomorrow in San Salvador, El Salvador.
If he throws 100 MPH as he has reportedly done in the past, we could see another Jose Contreras style bidding war and his agent is supposedly planning to use that as a starting point.
Honestly, I can see no reason for the M's to get involved in these talks, so I assume we are just there to do some scouting. We'll keep following this one.
If he throws 100 MPH as he has reportedly done in the past, we could see another Jose Contreras style bidding war and his agent is supposedly planning to use that as a starting point.
Honestly, I can see no reason for the M's to get involved in these talks, so I assume we are just there to do some scouting. We'll keep following this one.
The Second Lefty in the Pen
It sounds like most of the big moves the M's are going to make are done. But right now, we have a 40-man roster with only 3 left-handed bullpen candidates on it, and only Eddie Guardado has major league experience. The M's haven't had a regular 2nd lefty in the pen since the glorious days of fellow Rice-alum Norm Charlton. If there is a move the M's might make in the next month, it may be to add a second lefty to the pen. Here's a quick look at some ideas for this position.
Matt Thornton has been plagued by injuries, missing most of 2002 with Tommy John surgery and last year battled a pinched nerve in his neck. The Mariners sent Thornton, a starter all of his career, to the Arizona Fall League with strict orders that he be used in relief in order to gauge how ready he is for the bullpen. He did not overwhelm with a 9.22 ERA, but Thornton still struck out 13 batters in 13.2 IPs while walking just four. My guess is he gets some more recovery time in AAA.
Bobby Madritsch had a breakout season in 2003, but is likely to remain as a starter at AAA for now, to give him time to develop a breaking ball. If he remains a mid-90's fastball/changeup guy, then the bullpen may be his final destination, but my guess is that the M's will give him another year in the minors to see if he can be a starter for them.
George Sherrill may not be a name most M's fans are familiar with, but the stocky left-hander posted eye-popping stats (27.1 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 1 ER, 31 K, 12 BB - 0.33 ERA) in 16 relief appearances for the Missions. He is a 4-year veteran of independent ball and his AA season got him a trip to the AFL where he did well, posting a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 innings. He will get a long look in the Spring if no other signing is made.
Bring back Norm Charlton. Its a long-shot for the 41 year old to make a comeback, but if anyone can do it... Why not?
Scott Sauerbeck was non-tendered by the Red Sox after a mediocre season where he was dealt at the trade deadline by the Pirates. He walked way too many last year after a very nice 2002 campaign, and may be too expensive for what you get.
Mike Bynum. Just released by the Padres, the man has a nasty slider and is well-suited for a relief role. Acquiring him would cost very little, except the roster shuffling.
Mike Matthews had a 4.45 ERA in 64 2/3 innings for the Padres last year, and should be worthy of a major league roster spot, especially as he is just 32 years old.
Mark Guthrie has had two straight years of sub-3.00 ERA in lefty specialist roles for the Cubs and Mets. He is the definition of journeyman having played for 6 different teams over the past 5 years including three separate stints with the Cubs.
Given the choices, I'd like to see us add Mike Bynum for depth and see if he, Thornton or Sherrill can break with the team. And, of course, give Norm a Spring Training invite, and sign him us a developmental coach if he doesn't make it back. M's management might sign one of the more proven commodities, and look to deal them later in the year (there are always lefty relievers dealt at the trade deadline) if one of their younger options prove themselves in the minors.
Update: Looks like Norm's comeback attempt is serious. He is giving it another shot this year, and if it fails, his first choice will be to return to the M's as a roving instructor. I would love to see Norm staring down opposing hitters one more year, so good luck Norm!
Update 2: Apparently, I should read news sites before I post. My favorite M's writer, Larry Larue, writes about the M's search for a second lefty in today's Tribune. Larry adds Travis Blackley and Mike Myers to the list of possible candidates. I would prefer to see Blackley break in as a starter or a long reliever and not in the one or two batter mode most second lefties are used as. I hope he starts the year in Tacoma, continues to pitch lights out, and comes up mid-year to give the M's rotation a shot in the arm and never returns to the minors. Myers may have a leg up as he has pitched for Melvin in the past, though not particularly well.
Matt Thornton has been plagued by injuries, missing most of 2002 with Tommy John surgery and last year battled a pinched nerve in his neck. The Mariners sent Thornton, a starter all of his career, to the Arizona Fall League with strict orders that he be used in relief in order to gauge how ready he is for the bullpen. He did not overwhelm with a 9.22 ERA, but Thornton still struck out 13 batters in 13.2 IPs while walking just four. My guess is he gets some more recovery time in AAA.
Bobby Madritsch had a breakout season in 2003, but is likely to remain as a starter at AAA for now, to give him time to develop a breaking ball. If he remains a mid-90's fastball/changeup guy, then the bullpen may be his final destination, but my guess is that the M's will give him another year in the minors to see if he can be a starter for them.
George Sherrill may not be a name most M's fans are familiar with, but the stocky left-hander posted eye-popping stats (27.1 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 1 ER, 31 K, 12 BB - 0.33 ERA) in 16 relief appearances for the Missions. He is a 4-year veteran of independent ball and his AA season got him a trip to the AFL where he did well, posting a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 innings. He will get a long look in the Spring if no other signing is made.
Bring back Norm Charlton. Its a long-shot for the 41 year old to make a comeback, but if anyone can do it... Why not?
Scott Sauerbeck was non-tendered by the Red Sox after a mediocre season where he was dealt at the trade deadline by the Pirates. He walked way too many last year after a very nice 2002 campaign, and may be too expensive for what you get.
Mike Bynum. Just released by the Padres, the man has a nasty slider and is well-suited for a relief role. Acquiring him would cost very little, except the roster shuffling.
Mike Matthews had a 4.45 ERA in 64 2/3 innings for the Padres last year, and should be worthy of a major league roster spot, especially as he is just 32 years old.
Mark Guthrie has had two straight years of sub-3.00 ERA in lefty specialist roles for the Cubs and Mets. He is the definition of journeyman having played for 6 different teams over the past 5 years including three separate stints with the Cubs.
Given the choices, I'd like to see us add Mike Bynum for depth and see if he, Thornton or Sherrill can break with the team. And, of course, give Norm a Spring Training invite, and sign him us a developmental coach if he doesn't make it back. M's management might sign one of the more proven commodities, and look to deal them later in the year (there are always lefty relievers dealt at the trade deadline) if one of their younger options prove themselves in the minors.
Update: Looks like Norm's comeback attempt is serious. He is giving it another shot this year, and if it fails, his first choice will be to return to the M's as a roving instructor. I would love to see Norm staring down opposing hitters one more year, so good luck Norm!
Update 2: Apparently, I should read news sites before I post. My favorite M's writer, Larry Larue, writes about the M's search for a second lefty in today's Tribune. Larry adds Travis Blackley and Mike Myers to the list of possible candidates. I would prefer to see Blackley break in as a starter or a long reliever and not in the one or two batter mode most second lefties are used as. I hope he starts the year in Tacoma, continues to pitch lights out, and comes up mid-year to give the M's rotation a shot in the arm and never returns to the minors. Myers may have a leg up as he has pitched for Melvin in the past, though not particularly well.
Cirillo-Kendall Talks Dead For Now
Padres GM Kevin Towers apparently is not a fool, as his insistence on the Pirates paying some of Jason Kendall's ridiculous remaining $42M over 4 years has squelched the rumored deal for Jeff Cirillo and Ramon Hernandez.
A deal for Kendall has been discussed at least 4 different times and almost prevented the Brian Giles trade to the Padres. In the past, the Padres have wanted as much as $25M in cash to take on Kendall, but this time, it seemed like the Padres had a big enough albatross in Cirillo to return to the Pirates that a deal may actually get done. The Pirates had already worked up a press release before a meeting of Padres ownership decided the deal would squelch San Diego's ability to add salary mid-season if their Mariner-Optimist-predicted (M's sweep Pads in 4!) World Series run needs an infusion of talent.
Instead, the Padres made a wiser move, signing Jay Payton to a 2-year, $5.5M contract. The money is probably right for Payton and his Coors-inflated stats, he can play CF, and this will keep Terrence Long and his sub-.300 OBP on the bench where he belongs. It also prevents the Padres from fielding the dreadful-fielding trio of Xavier Nady, Giles (not a bad fielder in LF, but would be in CF here) and Ryan Klesko to inflate the ERAs of their young pitching staff. Of course, Payton is injury prone, so this may only be a part-time solution.
But the Padres followed up this signing with a mistake by designating Mike Bynum for assignment. Bynum has been brutal in his early career with the Padres, but his upside as a 26-year-old highly touted lefty seems much higher than former Mariner Brian Sweeney or Rule V pick Jason Szuminski. Bynum is not a flamethrower, but has a very nasty slider, and will be a very effective lefty reliever for someone. This optimist would love to see him fall to the Mariners, and us try to slip Ryan Christianson off the 40-man roster a la Ryan Anderson.
A deal for Kendall has been discussed at least 4 different times and almost prevented the Brian Giles trade to the Padres. In the past, the Padres have wanted as much as $25M in cash to take on Kendall, but this time, it seemed like the Padres had a big enough albatross in Cirillo to return to the Pirates that a deal may actually get done. The Pirates had already worked up a press release before a meeting of Padres ownership decided the deal would squelch San Diego's ability to add salary mid-season if their Mariner-Optimist-predicted (M's sweep Pads in 4!) World Series run needs an infusion of talent.
Instead, the Padres made a wiser move, signing Jay Payton to a 2-year, $5.5M contract. The money is probably right for Payton and his Coors-inflated stats, he can play CF, and this will keep Terrence Long and his sub-.300 OBP on the bench where he belongs. It also prevents the Padres from fielding the dreadful-fielding trio of Xavier Nady, Giles (not a bad fielder in LF, but would be in CF here) and Ryan Klesko to inflate the ERAs of their young pitching staff. Of course, Payton is injury prone, so this may only be a part-time solution.
But the Padres followed up this signing with a mistake by designating Mike Bynum for assignment. Bynum has been brutal in his early career with the Padres, but his upside as a 26-year-old highly touted lefty seems much higher than former Mariner Brian Sweeney or Rule V pick Jason Szuminski. Bynum is not a flamethrower, but has a very nasty slider, and will be a very effective lefty reliever for someone. This optimist would love to see him fall to the Mariners, and us try to slip Ryan Christianson off the 40-man roster a la Ryan Anderson.
Tuesday, January 13, 2004
Ryan Anderson remains a Mariner
Apparently, no one in baseball think that Ryan Anderson is going to amount to anything this year, as he has cleared waivers and been assigned to the Tacoma Rainiers (AAA).
Thankfully, no one wanted to give up a 40-man roster spot AND take on the Little Units' medical costs AND pay the M's $20,000 and Anderson $50,000 for the privilege. Not even his hometown Tigers.
Sidelined the past three seasons by a three separate shoulder surgeries, Anderson is still unable to throw from a mound. Seattle's best-case scenario was to get Anderson back in game action by late May.
So the bad news is that Ryan is such a mess that no team will take a chance on him and it is unlikely that he will ever pitch in the majors. The good news is that if he does, it will likely be as a Seattle Mariner.
Thankfully, no one wanted to give up a 40-man roster spot AND take on the Little Units' medical costs AND pay the M's $20,000 and Anderson $50,000 for the privilege. Not even his hometown Tigers.
Sidelined the past three seasons by a three separate shoulder surgeries, Anderson is still unable to throw from a mound. Seattle's best-case scenario was to get Anderson back in game action by late May.
So the bad news is that Ryan is such a mess that no team will take a chance on him and it is unlikely that he will ever pitch in the majors. The good news is that if he does, it will likely be as a Seattle Mariner.
Rice Owls keep rolling
In my continuing effort to convert M's fans into fans of the Rice Owls (in the spirit of optimism), here is a quick update.
Last week: 2-0 (81-61 over Boise St and 84-68 over UTEP, two WAC favorites) and Michael Harris was named WAC Player of the Week.
Yes, Rice clobbered the same UTEP team that just two months ago ended the Harlem Globetrotters 288-game win streak And the Globetrotters during that 8-game college tour beat Michigan St, UMass, and defending national champions Syracuse. So I think its safe for the Orangemen to pack up that pretty trophy and send it to Texas, care of William Marsh Rice.
For now, the Owls (11-3, 3-0) will have to be content with upping their vote total from 1 to 3(!) on the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll making us tied with Alabama for 35th in the nation and a mere 285 points behind Gonzaga in the race for top mid-tier school and media darling.
Beginning next Saturday, the Owls face a tough swing with 4 games in 8 days beginning with an ESPN2 televised game at Tulsa on Saturday. The Owls are 1-8 at the Reynolds Center and have lost by an average of 26 points, so it should be an easy win for the Owls. Then, we take on WAC front-runner Fresno State, and preseason favorite Nevada, who already kicked the Kansas Jayhawks ass this year. In between we get a home game with SMU who swept us last year.
I predict a 4-0 trip and a #9 seed in the NCAA South Regional!
Last week: 2-0 (81-61 over Boise St and 84-68 over UTEP, two WAC favorites) and Michael Harris was named WAC Player of the Week.
Yes, Rice clobbered the same UTEP team that just two months ago ended the Harlem Globetrotters 288-game win streak And the Globetrotters during that 8-game college tour beat Michigan St, UMass, and defending national champions Syracuse. So I think its safe for the Orangemen to pack up that pretty trophy and send it to Texas, care of William Marsh Rice.
For now, the Owls (11-3, 3-0) will have to be content with upping their vote total from 1 to 3(!) on the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll making us tied with Alabama for 35th in the nation and a mere 285 points behind Gonzaga in the race for top mid-tier school and media darling.
Beginning next Saturday, the Owls face a tough swing with 4 games in 8 days beginning with an ESPN2 televised game at Tulsa on Saturday. The Owls are 1-8 at the Reynolds Center and have lost by an average of 26 points, so it should be an easy win for the Owls. Then, we take on WAC front-runner Fresno State, and preseason favorite Nevada, who already kicked the Kansas Jayhawks ass this year. In between we get a home game with SMU who swept us last year.
I predict a 4-0 trip and a #9 seed in the NCAA South Regional!
Jarvis - Healthy and Hungry
Found a following the local hero story on Lexington, KY native Kevin Jarvis yesterday, and while it is mainly a fluff piece, its more than I have on Wiki or Hansen. I'm always curious if ballplayers "dumped" like they were, realize how much they are already disliked by the M's diehard fans and bloggers. Kevin seems to be aware of the criticism, and looking for a fresh start after injury plagued 2002 and 2003 seasons.
"Sometimes it gets lost in the shuffle that you pitched at less than 100 percent and were coming back from an injury. Some people are looking at the numbers and statistics, and they tend to forget about that. I'm in a great position. I'm extremely excited to go to Seattle and be a part of a winning tradition there."
The article ends with this possibly enigmatic quote: "If I'm healthy and pitching like I can, I'm sure I'll get the ball as much as I need to get it."
I'll choose to look at this as Kevin is hungry for the ball, and he is going to pitch well and earn some chances. I wish him the best as long as he's wearing a Mariners uniform. I hope M's fans give him a chance and don't automatically assume that he is the 2004 version of Giovanni Carrara
And more good news is that in 2001, Jarvis hit .246 and launched a home run. That already makes him more productive than Jeff Cirillo in 2003.
So how did Kevin Jarvis get a 3-year, $9M deal? I did some digging and found an article that describes the optimism that surrounded Kevin as he headed into 2002 with this big new contract.
Jarvis posted career highs with 32 starts, 193 1-3 innings and 133 strikeouts, which earned him a $9 million, three-year contract extension that includes a $5.25 million option in 2005.
"It was a solid year, but it wasn't anything spectacular," Jarvis said.
"I'm proud of the fact I took the ball every time I did and I put up a lot of innings. That is something I aspired to do. It's definitely something to be built on, but there's a lot of room for improvement."
...
"It was definitely the most enjoyable season I've had," Jarvis said. "That's a direct result of being an important cog in the team concept. Your teammates count on you to do the job. Once you get a taste of that, you want it to continue."
It sounds like Jarvis is going to be pushing to rediscover the glory of being an important cog on the Mariners, and will work hard to get there.
"Sometimes it gets lost in the shuffle that you pitched at less than 100 percent and were coming back from an injury. Some people are looking at the numbers and statistics, and they tend to forget about that. I'm in a great position. I'm extremely excited to go to Seattle and be a part of a winning tradition there."
The article ends with this possibly enigmatic quote: "If I'm healthy and pitching like I can, I'm sure I'll get the ball as much as I need to get it."
I'll choose to look at this as Kevin is hungry for the ball, and he is going to pitch well and earn some chances. I wish him the best as long as he's wearing a Mariners uniform. I hope M's fans give him a chance and don't automatically assume that he is the 2004 version of Giovanni Carrara
And more good news is that in 2001, Jarvis hit .246 and launched a home run. That already makes him more productive than Jeff Cirillo in 2003.
So how did Kevin Jarvis get a 3-year, $9M deal? I did some digging and found an article that describes the optimism that surrounded Kevin as he headed into 2002 with this big new contract.
Jarvis posted career highs with 32 starts, 193 1-3 innings and 133 strikeouts, which earned him a $9 million, three-year contract extension that includes a $5.25 million option in 2005.
"It was a solid year, but it wasn't anything spectacular," Jarvis said.
"I'm proud of the fact I took the ball every time I did and I put up a lot of innings. That is something I aspired to do. It's definitely something to be built on, but there's a lot of room for improvement."
...
"It was definitely the most enjoyable season I've had," Jarvis said. "That's a direct result of being an important cog in the team concept. Your teammates count on you to do the job. Once you get a taste of that, you want it to continue."
It sounds like Jarvis is going to be pushing to rediscover the glory of being an important cog on the Mariners, and will work hard to get there.
Monday, January 12, 2004
Cirillo to the Pirates?
Anyone who thinks that the Padres got over on the M's by dealing Jarvis, Wiki & Hansen for Cirillo have got to be wondering about this one. Why turn a 2-yr, $15M disaster into a 4-yr, $42M singles-hitting, skills-deteriorating catcher like Jason Kendall. And give up Ramon Hernandez as well? I guess there could be a LOT of cash coming to San Diego in such a deal, and then it might make sense. I'll be watching closely, as I hope Jeff is able to put up some numbers for someone in the NL, and not end his career on the sour note it sounded in Seattle. If no cash is coming, I'm guessing that the Pirates would have taken Jarvis, Wiki & Hansen as well, and not even asked for Hernandez, since Jarvis would probably be a #2 on the Pirates. I'm not convinced the Padres know what they are doing now that they have a little money to spend.
In other news...
Roger Clemens signing with the Astros is verrrry interesting. I wonder if he will return the retirement Hummer that the Yankees gave him. I know I'd like a Hummer when I retire... ahem, excuse me for that segue. Anyway, the Rocket pitches for his hometown team, who now have 2/5 of last year's Yankee rotation to go with Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, giving the Astros the nod as favorites in the NL Central and probably clinching the Cubs making a move to sign Greg Maddux or Pudge Rodriguez. Yankees GM Brian Cashman said "I'll always think of him as a Yankee," and I thought Wow - I still think of him as a Red Sox (or is that Red Sock) who had just lost his way. I think he should go into the Hall with a gunslinger outfit instead of a baseball cap, so he doesn't have to pick a team.
Jeff Nelson and Kenny Rogers signed with the Rangers today. "The Gambler" gets 6M over 2 years to continue the Rangers proud tradition of crappy starting pitching at any price. Nellie will be dominant in some outings and completely flammable in others, and I'm looking forward to seeing his sourpuss when he walks in the winning run when the Mariners face him in Arlington.
The little-blue-pill-popping one-man M's wrecking crew known as Rafael Palmiero will have a lot less of us to pick on as he goes from the Rangers to the Orioles. His .260/.350/.508 line looks like a good pickup for the free-spending O's (for whatever reason, I can't find a link that shows what he will be paid). And now instead of terrorizing the M's against whom his 3-year average is .294/.406/.679, he takes it to the GD Yankees whom he has lit up to the tune of .346/.438/.731 ! Go Raffy, keep those pills a popping!
In other news...
Roger Clemens signing with the Astros is verrrry interesting. I wonder if he will return the retirement Hummer that the Yankees gave him. I know I'd like a Hummer when I retire... ahem, excuse me for that segue. Anyway, the Rocket pitches for his hometown team, who now have 2/5 of last year's Yankee rotation to go with Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, giving the Astros the nod as favorites in the NL Central and probably clinching the Cubs making a move to sign Greg Maddux or Pudge Rodriguez. Yankees GM Brian Cashman said "I'll always think of him as a Yankee," and I thought Wow - I still think of him as a Red Sox (or is that Red Sock) who had just lost his way. I think he should go into the Hall with a gunslinger outfit instead of a baseball cap, so he doesn't have to pick a team.
Jeff Nelson and Kenny Rogers signed with the Rangers today. "The Gambler" gets 6M over 2 years to continue the Rangers proud tradition of crappy starting pitching at any price. Nellie will be dominant in some outings and completely flammable in others, and I'm looking forward to seeing his sourpuss when he walks in the winning run when the Mariners face him in Arlington.
The little-blue-pill-popping one-man M's wrecking crew known as Rafael Palmiero will have a lot less of us to pick on as he goes from the Rangers to the Orioles. His .260/.350/.508 line looks like a good pickup for the free-spending O's (for whatever reason, I can't find a link that shows what he will be paid). And now instead of terrorizing the M's against whom his 3-year average is .294/.406/.679, he takes it to the GD Yankees whom he has lit up to the tune of .346/.438/.731 ! Go Raffy, keep those pills a popping!
Embracing Optimism
Dave at Dave's Mariners and More tells his story of how he lost his optimism about the Mariners after the 2002 season. In it, this blog was referenced as "only the second blog out there that defends Bavasi." (I'm guessing that Cracking The Safe is the other).
I do not try to defend Bavasi, necessarily. I just want Mariner fans to remember just how good our team is, and to look forward to 2004 and continue to follow the team. I think Bavasi has made some horrible decisions, that I would never make if I was the GM (and yes, I am available to interview for the position next year). But I also try to look at what they might have been thinking when decisions were made, and I remain hopeful. Not every decision that is universally praised works out. I think most pundits thought Jeff Cirillo would bat .300 for the M's but probably not provide much pop. Nor is every decision that is universally panned a bad one. (The whole scenario leading up to the Griffey trade seemed to work out okay). Some of my favorite players have been dealt or lost - I lived for a Randy Johnson start every five days, and the trade of fellow Rice alum Jose Cruz, Jr. for a steaming pile of dogcrap could have killed my love for my team.
But it didn't. Sure I yelled and cursed these moves and Woody Woodward and Bobby Ayala's names were usually greeted by a boo at my house for awhile. But, time heals these wounds, and in the end, you have your love for a team. Not their owners and management, but for the players and the uniform, and your fellow fans. And things have been great for the past 10 years, when compared to the first 15 for the M's. Things have a way of working out. I'm here to say that if Rice University can go from laughingstock in all sports to NCAA Champions in baseball in a 15-year span, then the Mariners can win it all this year. Easily. So, be irate with management, but don't turn against the team. Don't boo Quinton McCracken, or curse Kevin Jarvis just because you know a better player should be out there. Be optimistic that the one hit they collect each week, or one stikeout they throw, will be the one that wins a game.
I hope that this blog has at least helped to start a trend. It seems like other M's blogs seem to be embracing or at least discussing optimism, or at least throwing out reminders that they are M's fans and for the most part hope things break right. Paul at SS Mariner apparently got some hot email from his Sunday note of Boonie's optimism. But he reminds us that for a team-oriented blog, its good sometimes to remember that we can be fans first, and amateur sabermatricians second.
Derek at USS Mariner gets downright giddy with... despite being a significantly worse team (and a tremendously worse team than they could have been), the Mariners may finish as with as many wins or more than they did last year, and compete for the AL West pennant all year long. And if luck breaks their way all year long, they could win it all, and have a chance at the World Series.
Of course, he then goes on to say that "if you gave me the choice between 90 wins this year and a first-round playoff defeat or 75 wins and a third-place AL West finish, I don't know what I'd take, because the latter might result in the team firing Bavasi and bringing in the kind of state-of-the-art GM they should have hired this year to clean up this mess and start fielding competitive teams for years to come. And yet I can't say that I actually want to see that happen. I'm a fan, and when I go to games I like to see good baseball and the team win." Winning is fun. Playoff chases are fun. And I'll take a 90-win playoff chase that ultimately fails over a throwaway 75-win season without blinking. Heck, I might even consider it over the disappointment of 2001, when the M's won 116, but their big lead combined with the events of 9/11 seemed to sap away their energy so that they could not turn it on again in the playoffs.
Give me a September race where every game matters, and I'm in Heaven, win or lose. And one of these years, things are gonna break right and we are gonna win it all. I think it will be in 2004 - why else would Edgar still be here?
I do not try to defend Bavasi, necessarily. I just want Mariner fans to remember just how good our team is, and to look forward to 2004 and continue to follow the team. I think Bavasi has made some horrible decisions, that I would never make if I was the GM (and yes, I am available to interview for the position next year). But I also try to look at what they might have been thinking when decisions were made, and I remain hopeful. Not every decision that is universally praised works out. I think most pundits thought Jeff Cirillo would bat .300 for the M's but probably not provide much pop. Nor is every decision that is universally panned a bad one. (The whole scenario leading up to the Griffey trade seemed to work out okay). Some of my favorite players have been dealt or lost - I lived for a Randy Johnson start every five days, and the trade of fellow Rice alum Jose Cruz, Jr. for a steaming pile of dogcrap could have killed my love for my team.
But it didn't. Sure I yelled and cursed these moves and Woody Woodward and Bobby Ayala's names were usually greeted by a boo at my house for awhile. But, time heals these wounds, and in the end, you have your love for a team. Not their owners and management, but for the players and the uniform, and your fellow fans. And things have been great for the past 10 years, when compared to the first 15 for the M's. Things have a way of working out. I'm here to say that if Rice University can go from laughingstock in all sports to NCAA Champions in baseball in a 15-year span, then the Mariners can win it all this year. Easily. So, be irate with management, but don't turn against the team. Don't boo Quinton McCracken, or curse Kevin Jarvis just because you know a better player should be out there. Be optimistic that the one hit they collect each week, or one stikeout they throw, will be the one that wins a game.
I hope that this blog has at least helped to start a trend. It seems like other M's blogs seem to be embracing or at least discussing optimism, or at least throwing out reminders that they are M's fans and for the most part hope things break right. Paul at SS Mariner apparently got some hot email from his Sunday note of Boonie's optimism. But he reminds us that for a team-oriented blog, its good sometimes to remember that we can be fans first, and amateur sabermatricians second.
Derek at USS Mariner gets downright giddy with... despite being a significantly worse team (and a tremendously worse team than they could have been), the Mariners may finish as with as many wins or more than they did last year, and compete for the AL West pennant all year long. And if luck breaks their way all year long, they could win it all, and have a chance at the World Series.
Of course, he then goes on to say that "if you gave me the choice between 90 wins this year and a first-round playoff defeat or 75 wins and a third-place AL West finish, I don't know what I'd take, because the latter might result in the team firing Bavasi and bringing in the kind of state-of-the-art GM they should have hired this year to clean up this mess and start fielding competitive teams for years to come. And yet I can't say that I actually want to see that happen. I'm a fan, and when I go to games I like to see good baseball and the team win." Winning is fun. Playoff chases are fun. And I'll take a 90-win playoff chase that ultimately fails over a throwaway 75-win season without blinking. Heck, I might even consider it over the disappointment of 2001, when the M's won 116, but their big lead combined with the events of 9/11 seemed to sap away their energy so that they could not turn it on again in the playoffs.
Give me a September race where every game matters, and I'm in Heaven, win or lose. And one of these years, things are gonna break right and we are gonna win it all. I think it will be in 2004 - why else would Edgar still be here?
Sunday, January 11, 2004
Boonie Likes the Offseason
Ignoring some of the Bob Finnigan commentary in his latest article, you find that Bret Boone sounds happy about the offseason moves. The following quotes come from this article.
"Overall, I am excited to see what we've done this winter. Every one of the major guys we've added knows how to win, has proven he can help a team win. That is no small factor."
"This is our year to go for it, and the front office knew that and acted accordingly."
"In realistic terms it was a shame to have Cameron leave, but it's understandable given Mike's problems with Safeco Field. He was going to go and that was that. We're going to miss him as a great teammate and a great center fielder who was also a dangerous hitter. We'll miss Mike in the field. This is not to take anything away from Randy Winn, and we'll be fine with him out there. But Cam was among the top three center fielders in the game."
"Let's be frank, our overall defense is not going to be the same, it'll be a little weaker," Boone said. "We set records last year and we'll be without Cameron and even a guy like Cirillo, who even with his trouble hitting could play great with the glove. It won't be the same at third, but I think Scott can handle it."
"Our infield will be the same on the right, with me and (first baseman John Olerud), but we'll have some questions on the left side. Both Rich and Scott should be fine, steady, but Rich may not have the range Carlos had."
"I really like the Spiezio move. Scott was flying under the radar and our guys picked him up, a winner, a clutch hitter, a guy who gives you a tough at-bat in tough situations.
"Rich (Aurilia) is a lot the same, a guy who knows how to play, who comes to play every inning of every day. He was in our clubhouse the other day and we talked and he's going to be fine.
"But as much as I like our moves with position guys, I love getting Eddie (Guardado). He doesn't get the headlines like Mariano Rivera or Eric Gagne, but this is one tough dude.
"In fact, without a doubt we've added greatly to the toughness of our team. All these guys are proven winners, who've done things to help their teams succeed on a regular basis, who've been to the postseason and even the World Series. And after missing the past two years, that's what we're going for this year."
Boone is obviously concerned about the downgrade of defense, but not overly so. But he obvioiusly thinks that the offense and the toughness of the team are both improved. And though the statheads downplay it, anyone who has ever played the game (or held a job for that matter) know that there is something to clubhouse chemistry and team toughness. It IS hard to measure, but it is NOT hard to identify. While I have my doubts on the Ibanez for Cameron swap, I have no doubt that we are better with Spiezio and Aurilia over Cirillo (or a rookie) and Guillen.
Note that the article does NOT talk about our bench which is admittedly pretty frightening. But my thought is that if the bench does not contribute, THEN it will be time to add folks that other sites want to be our starters, like Chris Snelling, Justin Leone, and Give the veterans like McCracken and Jarvis a chance in April and May when we are off to another hot start. Let them do a little good, bring up their value, and then deal them for prospects or cash.
Ah shoot, hard to blog with 3 kids on a weekend. I'll finish these thoughts later...
"Overall, I am excited to see what we've done this winter. Every one of the major guys we've added knows how to win, has proven he can help a team win. That is no small factor."
"This is our year to go for it, and the front office knew that and acted accordingly."
"In realistic terms it was a shame to have Cameron leave, but it's understandable given Mike's problems with Safeco Field. He was going to go and that was that. We're going to miss him as a great teammate and a great center fielder who was also a dangerous hitter. We'll miss Mike in the field. This is not to take anything away from Randy Winn, and we'll be fine with him out there. But Cam was among the top three center fielders in the game."
"Let's be frank, our overall defense is not going to be the same, it'll be a little weaker," Boone said. "We set records last year and we'll be without Cameron and even a guy like Cirillo, who even with his trouble hitting could play great with the glove. It won't be the same at third, but I think Scott can handle it."
"Our infield will be the same on the right, with me and (first baseman John Olerud), but we'll have some questions on the left side. Both Rich and Scott should be fine, steady, but Rich may not have the range Carlos had."
"I really like the Spiezio move. Scott was flying under the radar and our guys picked him up, a winner, a clutch hitter, a guy who gives you a tough at-bat in tough situations.
"Rich (Aurilia) is a lot the same, a guy who knows how to play, who comes to play every inning of every day. He was in our clubhouse the other day and we talked and he's going to be fine.
"But as much as I like our moves with position guys, I love getting Eddie (Guardado). He doesn't get the headlines like Mariano Rivera or Eric Gagne, but this is one tough dude.
"In fact, without a doubt we've added greatly to the toughness of our team. All these guys are proven winners, who've done things to help their teams succeed on a regular basis, who've been to the postseason and even the World Series. And after missing the past two years, that's what we're going for this year."
Boone is obviously concerned about the downgrade of defense, but not overly so. But he obvioiusly thinks that the offense and the toughness of the team are both improved. And though the statheads downplay it, anyone who has ever played the game (or held a job for that matter) know that there is something to clubhouse chemistry and team toughness. It IS hard to measure, but it is NOT hard to identify. While I have my doubts on the Ibanez for Cameron swap, I have no doubt that we are better with Spiezio and Aurilia over Cirillo (or a rookie) and Guillen.
Note that the article does NOT talk about our bench which is admittedly pretty frightening. But my thought is that if the bench does not contribute, THEN it will be time to add folks that other sites want to be our starters, like Chris Snelling, Justin Leone, and Give the veterans like McCracken and Jarvis a chance in April and May when we are off to another hot start. Let them do a little good, bring up their value, and then deal them for prospects or cash.
Ah shoot, hard to blog with 3 kids on a weekend. I'll finish these thoughts later...
Vlad goes to the Angels
Wow! That was one I was not expecting! Vlad signs a 5yr / $70M deal with the Angels and the AL West is not only a 3 team race for sure, but the Angels just moved into the favorites chair.
Vlad in RF gives the Angels an impressive offense with Jose Guillen in left, Garrett Anderson moving from left to center, Tim Salmon moving to DH, and Darin Erstad to 1B. Add in Bartolo Colon to go with Washburn and you have an excellent rotation as well although rumblings are that this signing pushes the Angels over the $105M mark, and they may have to trade some players, maybe one of Washburn, Ortiz or even Percival.
Should the M's have offered Vlad a similar contract? Well, it probably would have taken more as Seattle does not have much of a Hispanic community which was apparently a requirement of Vlad. But lets say he would have signed for the same amount. The Seattle fan base would probably be MUCH more excited with the addition of one Vlad then by adding Ibanez, Spiezio, Aurilia and Guardado, whose contracts roughly add up to the same $14M that Vlad will make this year. We would have Vlad in place of Ibanez in LF, Justin Leone manning 3B, and another young gun (Nagoette?) in the bullpen, while Soriano certainly stayed a reliever. I think I would have been happier with Vlad, and certainly more excited, but only time will tell how these offseason deals play out for the M's and the Angels. And if this is how the optimist sounds, you can guess what's going on at the other boards.
Vlad in RF gives the Angels an impressive offense with Jose Guillen in left, Garrett Anderson moving from left to center, Tim Salmon moving to DH, and Darin Erstad to 1B. Add in Bartolo Colon to go with Washburn and you have an excellent rotation as well although rumblings are that this signing pushes the Angels over the $105M mark, and they may have to trade some players, maybe one of Washburn, Ortiz or even Percival.
Should the M's have offered Vlad a similar contract? Well, it probably would have taken more as Seattle does not have much of a Hispanic community which was apparently a requirement of Vlad. But lets say he would have signed for the same amount. The Seattle fan base would probably be MUCH more excited with the addition of one Vlad then by adding Ibanez, Spiezio, Aurilia and Guardado, whose contracts roughly add up to the same $14M that Vlad will make this year. We would have Vlad in place of Ibanez in LF, Justin Leone manning 3B, and another young gun (Nagoette?) in the bullpen, while Soriano certainly stayed a reliever. I think I would have been happier with Vlad, and certainly more excited, but only time will tell how these offseason deals play out for the M's and the Angels. And if this is how the optimist sounds, you can guess what's going on at the other boards.
Friday, January 09, 2004
Scott Spiezio... The Next Bret Boone?
One factoid you may not know about me is that I love fantasy baseball. Now, I only play NL-only leagues because I don't want my love of the Mariners to conflict with my fantasy team, since there is nothing worse than having one of your players playing against the M's (as occasionally happens in interleague play). You get "C'mon Maddux, give up an unearned run so the M's win 1-0, but my ERA stays at 0.00". Its hard to do.
Well, anyway, in order to learn more about how to value players throughout the year, I subscribe to an excellent service Ron Shandler's Baseball HQ. They had an article that was reprinted in the 2004 Annual Baseball Forecaster that I received this weekend and it was entitled "The Next Bret Boone".
Paraphrasing it (and hoping the two links and plugs will make them forgive me)... they are trying to determine how to find an established journyman who might be able to raise his game to the elite level, such as Bret Boone's emergence in 2001. (Remember in 2000, Boone went .251/19/74/.747 OPS and in 2001 he erupted for .331/37/141/.957 !!!)
They came up with criteria of age range (30-34), journeyman value (consistent but unspectacular), regular PT (average of 450 AB last 3 years), and statistics of someone who has OPS > .750, AB/2B under 18, and good contact and walk rates among other more obscure criteria that you have to buy the book to find.
Heading into 2003, the closest matches were Brian Giles, Shawn Green (neither journeymen) and Melvin Mora, who had a breakout year.
For 2004, the only player who meets all criteria is one Scott Spiezio. Written before the Holidays, the article adds "Finally, Boone's big year came after a team change, from weak San Diego to a loaded Seattle club. Spiezio is a free agent, so watch to see if he signs with an upper-class team." Well, he did in fact sign for the same upper-class team that Boone signed with.
Shandler's company puts out projections for all players, and the projected line for Spiezio... .275/23/100/.828 OPS and in the comments section of his projection writes "In an analysis elsewhere in this book, he is tabbed for a 2004 breakout season. Look closely and you'll see the signs. This projection hedges a little, the reality could be better."
So, at least one source I trust (and pay for) is looking for a breakout season from Spiezio. I had him targeted as someone to look out for if he came over to the NL. Maybe M's brass knows more than we give them credit for. They managed to find Boone & Ichiro. Its at least comforting to know someone thinks they did something right, in this sea of offseason negativity...
Well, anyway, in order to learn more about how to value players throughout the year, I subscribe to an excellent service Ron Shandler's Baseball HQ. They had an article that was reprinted in the 2004 Annual Baseball Forecaster that I received this weekend and it was entitled "The Next Bret Boone".
Paraphrasing it (and hoping the two links and plugs will make them forgive me)... they are trying to determine how to find an established journyman who might be able to raise his game to the elite level, such as Bret Boone's emergence in 2001. (Remember in 2000, Boone went .251/19/74/.747 OPS and in 2001 he erupted for .331/37/141/.957 !!!)
They came up with criteria of age range (30-34), journeyman value (consistent but unspectacular), regular PT (average of 450 AB last 3 years), and statistics of someone who has OPS > .750, AB/2B under 18, and good contact and walk rates among other more obscure criteria that you have to buy the book to find.
Heading into 2003, the closest matches were Brian Giles, Shawn Green (neither journeymen) and Melvin Mora, who had a breakout year.
For 2004, the only player who meets all criteria is one Scott Spiezio. Written before the Holidays, the article adds "Finally, Boone's big year came after a team change, from weak San Diego to a loaded Seattle club. Spiezio is a free agent, so watch to see if he signs with an upper-class team." Well, he did in fact sign for the same upper-class team that Boone signed with.
Shandler's company puts out projections for all players, and the projected line for Spiezio... .275/23/100/.828 OPS and in the comments section of his projection writes "In an analysis elsewhere in this book, he is tabbed for a 2004 breakout season. Look closely and you'll see the signs. This projection hedges a little, the reality could be better."
So, at least one source I trust (and pay for) is looking for a breakout season from Spiezio. I had him targeted as someone to look out for if he came over to the NL. Maybe M's brass knows more than we give them credit for. They managed to find Boone & Ichiro. Its at least comforting to know someone thinks they did something right, in this sea of offseason negativity...
Killing The Second-Half Swoon
Art Thiel's latest article follows a thought I had about Aurilia being a late season upgrade over Guillen in an attempt to avoid the dreaded August slump that has kept the M's out of the playoffs for two years. Thiel's statistical analysis is lacking but he does try to have fun with the term "inflamed pelvis", so its worth a quick read.
The main problem I have with this article beside the failed attempts at humor and the focus on batting average as a measure of player success is the fact that it focuses on September, and not August where I believe we have sucked for a long time.
Year Aug. Sept.
2003 14-15 13-12
2002 13-15 14-12
2001 20-9 15-6
2000 11-17 18-10
Obviously, the differences were more pronounced in the Piniella years, but August has always been a horrible month for the M's.
2003 M's with more than 200 August ABs in 3 years with 3-year splits of OPS vs. August OPS
Boone 885 / 876
Edgar 919 / 909
Ichiro 814 / 742 !!!
Cameron 796 / 750
Winn 781 / 721
Olerud 843 / 795
Guillen 719 / 608
Wilson 683 / 723
Cirillo 701 / 733
New M's (3-year splits):
Scott Spiezio 784 / 855
Raul Ibanez 839 / 874
Rich Aurilia 807 / 768
Missed on:
Miguel Tejada 824 / 825
Omar Vizquel 698 / 574 - another reason I'm thankful this fell through.
Spiezio and Ibanez look like they might very well prevent the August swoon, certainly moreso than Cameron and Cirillo have done in years past. And while Aurilia hasn't fired it up in August, he has been heckuva lot better than Carlos Guillen's puny 608. We still need to find a cure for Ichiro's late season woes, but that's another article entirely.
So, perk up, M's fans! The August flailing is officially over.
Bring on the playoffs.
The main problem I have with this article beside the failed attempts at humor and the focus on batting average as a measure of player success is the fact that it focuses on September, and not August where I believe we have sucked for a long time.
Year Aug. Sept.
2003 14-15 13-12
2002 13-15 14-12
2001 20-9 15-6
2000 11-17 18-10
Obviously, the differences were more pronounced in the Piniella years, but August has always been a horrible month for the M's.
2003 M's with more than 200 August ABs in 3 years with 3-year splits of OPS vs. August OPS
Boone 885 / 876
Edgar 919 / 909
Ichiro 814 / 742 !!!
Cameron 796 / 750
Winn 781 / 721
Olerud 843 / 795
Guillen 719 / 608
Wilson 683 / 723
Cirillo 701 / 733
New M's (3-year splits):
Scott Spiezio 784 / 855
Raul Ibanez 839 / 874
Rich Aurilia 807 / 768
Missed on:
Miguel Tejada 824 / 825
Omar Vizquel 698 / 574 - another reason I'm thankful this fell through.
Spiezio and Ibanez look like they might very well prevent the August swoon, certainly moreso than Cameron and Cirillo have done in years past. And while Aurilia hasn't fired it up in August, he has been heckuva lot better than Carlos Guillen's puny 608. We still need to find a cure for Ichiro's late season woes, but that's another article entirely.
So, perk up, M's fans! The August flailing is officially over.
Bring on the playoffs.
Shortstop Shuffle Complete
Rich Aurilia signs for 1 year, $3.5 M
Carlos Guillen heads to Detroit
2 pre-Cal Ripken-era shortstops come back to Seattle.
First, let me say that I am very happy to have Rich Aurilia over Carlos Guillen. Guillen's DUI incident soured me on him, and the fact that after the incident he was still seen partying with Mr. Freddy Garcia bothered me even more. I have no fond Carlos Guillen memory in my head, feel free to barrage my email with yours. He was an average shortstop who M's management had decided to change to a veteran to help provide leadership and hopefully a little more pop.
Most of the M's pessimists will argue that Aurilia had only one good year, 2001, when he popped 37 home runs and that really he provides no significant upgrade to Aurilia and costs a million dollars more. But in my research, he seems to provide a significant upgrade at little additional cost. So here are Five Reasons to like Rich Aurilia over Carlos Guillen
5. Durability. Aurilia has averaged 550 ABs over past 3 years while Guillen has averaged 430 ABs. Less of Luis Ugueto, Willie Bloomquist and 2003 Mark McLemore as starters is a very good thing.
4. Contract Comparison. If Guillen reached 550 ABs this year, he would make $3.2M dollars so really their contracts are nearly a wash. Aurilia's is $3.15 million with 350,000 in PA incentives. Both players are free agents after the year is up. Aurilia claims he *wanted* a one-year contract to prove how much he could be worth. "A one-year deal for me should be added incentive to have a good year," he said. I love guys willing to put up or shut up. I don't understand why this is reported as a 3.5M vs. 2.5M players unless everyone EXPECTS that Guillen will not reach 450 PAs to kick in his incentives, and know that Aurilia will reach his.
3. 3 year splits show power we need: Aurilia = .288/.335/.472 vs. Guillen = .265/.338/.391 Similar average and OBP, but much more power. Aurilia hits lefties with POWER. This is a general team weakness exacerbated by a Colbrunn-less bench. What's not to like about an upgrade from Guillen's 3 year .262/.319/.372 line vs lefties to Aurilia's .283/.329/.531.
2. Maturity. A lot has been made over Aurilia being 4 years older than Carlos, but 32 is not close to the years of imminent decline for hitters, and he shows more maturity than Guillen in his interviews and lifestyle. Carlos has never been a team leader, and I really can't remember ever seeing an interview with him. I've mainly heard stories of him acting as Freddy's wingman while partying at Jillian's. Aurilia at least is known for being emotional during games which will hopefully give the M's clubhouse a little more life than it had last year. "They're probably looking for me to bring a little fire," Aurilia said. "You'll see I play with emotion."
1. No second-half swoon from Aurilia. A look at Carlos' numbers pre All-Star Break and post, show that he has been a significant contributor to the M's annual second half swoon. An OPS of .745 pre and .682 after (including a horrific .602 in August) over the last three years points a glaring finger at Guillen. Aurillia is a rock, 805 pre and 810 post-ASB shows his steadiness.
Carlos Guillen heads to Detroit
2 pre-Cal Ripken-era shortstops come back to Seattle.
First, let me say that I am very happy to have Rich Aurilia over Carlos Guillen. Guillen's DUI incident soured me on him, and the fact that after the incident he was still seen partying with Mr. Freddy Garcia bothered me even more. I have no fond Carlos Guillen memory in my head, feel free to barrage my email with yours. He was an average shortstop who M's management had decided to change to a veteran to help provide leadership and hopefully a little more pop.
Most of the M's pessimists will argue that Aurilia had only one good year, 2001, when he popped 37 home runs and that really he provides no significant upgrade to Aurilia and costs a million dollars more. But in my research, he seems to provide a significant upgrade at little additional cost. So here are Five Reasons to like Rich Aurilia over Carlos Guillen
5. Durability. Aurilia has averaged 550 ABs over past 3 years while Guillen has averaged 430 ABs. Less of Luis Ugueto, Willie Bloomquist and 2003 Mark McLemore as starters is a very good thing.
4. Contract Comparison. If Guillen reached 550 ABs this year, he would make $3.2M dollars so really their contracts are nearly a wash. Aurilia's is $3.15 million with 350,000 in PA incentives. Both players are free agents after the year is up. Aurilia claims he *wanted* a one-year contract to prove how much he could be worth. "A one-year deal for me should be added incentive to have a good year," he said. I love guys willing to put up or shut up. I don't understand why this is reported as a 3.5M vs. 2.5M players unless everyone EXPECTS that Guillen will not reach 450 PAs to kick in his incentives, and know that Aurilia will reach his.
3. 3 year splits show power we need: Aurilia = .288/.335/.472 vs. Guillen = .265/.338/.391 Similar average and OBP, but much more power. Aurilia hits lefties with POWER. This is a general team weakness exacerbated by a Colbrunn-less bench. What's not to like about an upgrade from Guillen's 3 year .262/.319/.372 line vs lefties to Aurilia's .283/.329/.531.
2. Maturity. A lot has been made over Aurilia being 4 years older than Carlos, but 32 is not close to the years of imminent decline for hitters, and he shows more maturity than Guillen in his interviews and lifestyle. Carlos has never been a team leader, and I really can't remember ever seeing an interview with him. I've mainly heard stories of him acting as Freddy's wingman while partying at Jillian's. Aurilia at least is known for being emotional during games which will hopefully give the M's clubhouse a little more life than it had last year. "They're probably looking for me to bring a little fire," Aurilia said. "You'll see I play with emotion."
1. No second-half swoon from Aurilia. A look at Carlos' numbers pre All-Star Break and post, show that he has been a significant contributor to the M's annual second half swoon. An OPS of .745 pre and .682 after (including a horrific .602 in August) over the last three years points a glaring finger at Guillen. Aurillia is a rock, 805 pre and 810 post-ASB shows his steadiness.
Thursday, January 08, 2004
Go Rice!
Completely unrelated to the Mariners, but I just had to announce that my sports-challenged alma mater, Rice University, not only WON the 2003 Baseball National Championship last year, but this year has parlayed an 9-3 record including 5 and 8 point losses to #6 Stanford and #1 Connecticut into an actual VOTE in the ESPN/USAToday Basketball rankings.
Way to go Owls!
Way to go Owls!
Whosa dis Faison?
I have to admit, that when I heard the name Vince Faison, I envisioned a lumbering Italian mobster, straight out of the Sopranos. "Hey Faison, fuhgeddaboudit! You can't hit no fungoes!" just rings in my ears. Not much could be found about Vince in the mainstream press, but I found a good blurb in Baseball America's article on the trade.
Faison, 22, was the 20th overall pick in the 1999 draft out of a Georgia high school. A $1.415 million bonus persuaded him to choose baseball over a scholarship to play defensive back at the University of Georgia. Like plenty of multitooled, multisport athletes, Faison has yet to turn his abilities into consistent production. He hit .230/.318/.298 with four homers, 28 RBIs and 13 steals in 119 games at Double-A Mobile. He has gotten stronger as he has matured, but that has cost him some of his formerly blazing speed. He tries too much to hit homers and doesn't make enough contact. His weak arm limits him to left field.
So he's a failed tools guy, that does not look like he's going to make it. Why bother?
Steve's Mariners Wheelhouse pontificates that Bavasi is showing a glimmer of genius by trading performance for tools, and is in fact, recovering discarded draft picks at pennies on the dollar. Bavasi is, in essence, the anti-Beane at this time when Moneyball is all the rage and sweeping the mindsets of GMs everywhere. I have to admit to being impressed by the Moneyball approach, and certainly the A's results with it, but then I also believe that Moneyball was successful because it was being contrarian, and finding an overlooked resource - the no-tools, high-performance player. Now that this type of player's stock is on the rise because of the success of the Oakland A's, maybe the M's under Bavasi are actually on the cutting edge of a new wave of contrarian signings, picking up high-tools players and developing them into studs.
It sounds good at least to think your GM is doing something smart, and is on the cutting edge, even if that edge is retro. Almost as good as, "Yo Vinnie, knock one outta da park or we wax yur mudda!"
Faison, 22, was the 20th overall pick in the 1999 draft out of a Georgia high school. A $1.415 million bonus persuaded him to choose baseball over a scholarship to play defensive back at the University of Georgia. Like plenty of multitooled, multisport athletes, Faison has yet to turn his abilities into consistent production. He hit .230/.318/.298 with four homers, 28 RBIs and 13 steals in 119 games at Double-A Mobile. He has gotten stronger as he has matured, but that has cost him some of his formerly blazing speed. He tries too much to hit homers and doesn't make enough contact. His weak arm limits him to left field.
So he's a failed tools guy, that does not look like he's going to make it. Why bother?
Steve's Mariners Wheelhouse pontificates that Bavasi is showing a glimmer of genius by trading performance for tools, and is in fact, recovering discarded draft picks at pennies on the dollar. Bavasi is, in essence, the anti-Beane at this time when Moneyball is all the rage and sweeping the mindsets of GMs everywhere. I have to admit to being impressed by the Moneyball approach, and certainly the A's results with it, but then I also believe that Moneyball was successful because it was being contrarian, and finding an overlooked resource - the no-tools, high-performance player. Now that this type of player's stock is on the rise because of the success of the Oakland A's, maybe the M's under Bavasi are actually on the cutting edge of a new wave of contrarian signings, picking up high-tools players and developing them into studs.
It sounds good at least to think your GM is doing something smart, and is on the cutting edge, even if that edge is retro. Almost as good as, "Yo Vinnie, knock one outta da park or we wax yur mudda!"
Not a Dry Eye in the House
The Seattle PI is reporting that the deal for Rich Aurilia looks to be a 1 year, $3.5M deal. They also indicate that the corresponding deal to send Carlos Guillen to Detroit may only be for minor leaguers meaning no move on the Ryan Anderson front will be forthcoming... at least not today.
Weather permitting, Aurilia is expected to arrive in Seattle today, where a routine physical is planned. One such physical, thankfully, already scrapped the M's trade of Carlos Guillen to Cleveland for former M Omar Vizquel. That move would have added a significant salary burden to the M's for a player whose health and career were both in decline.
One thing that the M's will be checking closely is a problem that Aurilia had with his left eye last year. The condition, known as "dry eye" caused the tear duct to not produce enough lubrication to wear contact lenses comfortably. The result, discomfort at the plate and occasional blurry vision.
According to the P-I, the problem has been dealt with, and Aurilia, who was batting .242 on May 2nd when the problem sent him to the bench. Aurilia returned 3 days later, and averaged .312 over the second half of the season.
Perhaps a 3.5M contract for a known hustler, who has proven more durable and hit for more power than Guillen will please the naysayers. Guillen's contract was 2.5M but included 900,000 in plate appearance incentives. If he batted 500 times like Rich Aurilia did last year (despite this problem AND having his appendix burst), Guillen would earn 2.95M, and 3.4M if he reached 600 plate appearances. Of course, Guillen has never reached 500 plate appearances in his career, and that is one of the reasons he became expendable.
Weather permitting, Aurilia is expected to arrive in Seattle today, where a routine physical is planned. One such physical, thankfully, already scrapped the M's trade of Carlos Guillen to Cleveland for former M Omar Vizquel. That move would have added a significant salary burden to the M's for a player whose health and career were both in decline.
One thing that the M's will be checking closely is a problem that Aurilia had with his left eye last year. The condition, known as "dry eye" caused the tear duct to not produce enough lubrication to wear contact lenses comfortably. The result, discomfort at the plate and occasional blurry vision.
According to the P-I, the problem has been dealt with, and Aurilia, who was batting .242 on May 2nd when the problem sent him to the bench. Aurilia returned 3 days later, and averaged .312 over the second half of the season.
Perhaps a 3.5M contract for a known hustler, who has proven more durable and hit for more power than Guillen will please the naysayers. Guillen's contract was 2.5M but included 900,000 in plate appearance incentives. If he batted 500 times like Rich Aurilia did last year (despite this problem AND having his appendix burst), Guillen would earn 2.95M, and 3.4M if he reached 600 plate appearances. Of course, Guillen has never reached 500 plate appearances in his career, and that is one of the reasons he became expendable.
Ryan Anderson we hardly knew ye...
According to the Seattle Times, Ryan Anderson may be the player dropped from our 40 man roster as a result of signing Rich Aurilia and trading Carlos Guillen to the Tigers and returning a major league player (presumed to be Ramon Santiago).
Essentially, if we add Santiago, we will have 41 men on our 40 men roster, and someone has got to go. We can either package Anderson in trade, or we can designate him for reassignment and hope that he somehow passes through waivers.
Why Ryan Anderson? Well, he hasn't pitched since 2000 for one, has had three shoulder surgeries, and won't pitch this year until the May/June timeframe at best. And if he stays on the 40 man roster this year, he becomes a minor league free agent at the end of the year and we lose him anyway.
So, essentially, the Little Unit is already gone. If he somehow slips through waivers, then he keeps his one remaining minor league option and we don't lose him at the end of the year, so I hope we at least try to do that. Maybe if we package him in the Detroit deal (Anderson IS a Michigan native) that we somehow get something better in return, but I doubt that. But this administration DOES seem to take care of its players and they may send Anderson "home" to Detroit as a favor to him, and continue to build up good karma with the MLB universe.
So, Ryan, we wish you well in your continued rehab, and hope that you may someday pitch in the major leagues. Unfortunately, it looks like it won't be as a Mariner.
Essentially, if we add Santiago, we will have 41 men on our 40 men roster, and someone has got to go. We can either package Anderson in trade, or we can designate him for reassignment and hope that he somehow passes through waivers.
Why Ryan Anderson? Well, he hasn't pitched since 2000 for one, has had three shoulder surgeries, and won't pitch this year until the May/June timeframe at best. And if he stays on the 40 man roster this year, he becomes a minor league free agent at the end of the year and we lose him anyway.
So, essentially, the Little Unit is already gone. If he somehow slips through waivers, then he keeps his one remaining minor league option and we don't lose him at the end of the year, so I hope we at least try to do that. Maybe if we package him in the Detroit deal (Anderson IS a Michigan native) that we somehow get something better in return, but I doubt that. But this administration DOES seem to take care of its players and they may send Anderson "home" to Detroit as a favor to him, and continue to build up good karma with the MLB universe.
So, Ryan, we wish you well in your continued rehab, and hope that you may someday pitch in the major leagues. Unfortunately, it looks like it won't be as a Mariner.
Wednesday, January 07, 2004
Not Completely Lackin...
Quinton McCracken has taken a LOT of crap from the M's blogsphere as the worst player of 2003. I saw him referred to somewhere in a takeoff on "Hard Hitten Mark Whiten" as "Completely Lackin Quinton McCracken." But in 2002, his line in 349 ABs was .309/.367/.458 with 27 doubles and 8 triples. That's a respectable OPS of 825.
Randy Winn's "All Star" stats in 600 ABs in 2002? .298/.360/.461 for an OPS of 821. (Winn's OPS was a mere 771 in 2003, and Ichiro's? 788)
In the three years prior to 2002, he played in a total of 79 games as a torn ACL in 1999 derailed his career, which while not going to send him to the Hall, seemed headed for the same path as his best friend, Randy Winn. So he sucked last year, in a year where he thought he might get the RF job and instead found himself eventually playing behind Raul Mondesi, which could cause anyone to slump.
Here's hoping that being reunited with Winn allows Q to excel as the M's 4th OF in 2004, and picks Winn up as well. I certainly can see Q helping us more than Colbrunn did last year.
All we are saying...
Is give Q a chance
Randy Winn's "All Star" stats in 600 ABs in 2002? .298/.360/.461 for an OPS of 821. (Winn's OPS was a mere 771 in 2003, and Ichiro's? 788)
In the three years prior to 2002, he played in a total of 79 games as a torn ACL in 1999 derailed his career, which while not going to send him to the Hall, seemed headed for the same path as his best friend, Randy Winn. So he sucked last year, in a year where he thought he might get the RF job and instead found himself eventually playing behind Raul Mondesi, which could cause anyone to slump.
Here's hoping that being reunited with Winn allows Q to excel as the M's 4th OF in 2004, and picks Winn up as well. I certainly can see Q helping us more than Colbrunn did last year.
All we are saying...
Is give Q a chance
Cirillo Deal a Good One
As the Mariner Fan that will be the scorn of all other M's Blogs, I must say that I LIKE the Jeff Cirillo deal. Cirillo on our bench was going to be a cancer all season, and Sweeney is not at the top of our AAA list. And from the math I see, it looks like we save $1M in the transaction.
Wiki will go to AAA where he will either get his head out of his butt and become the backup to Ben Davis when we finally say goodbye to Dan (and Coach Borders) next year. Or maybe we dump/trade Wiki and someone picks him up for the league minimum saving us $300K over 2 years for $600K
Hansen will be a PH/sub-DH, or we will deal him to an NL team, and save another 300K (pro-rated).
Jarvis will either be able to put up quality innings now that he is 2 years removed from elbow surgery, or he will fail, and we will dump him early in the season (or in Spring), and hope that another desperate team (Reds?) pick him up and save us yet another $300K.
So whereas before we could dump Cirillo and possibly save $600K over 2 seasons, we can dump 3 players and possibly save another $1.2M. This is on top of the $1M we've already saved.
I think much of the scorn comes from this landslide of negativity of our bloggers. Many blogs had Ben Davis being traded as a result, and are focused on how Jarvis blocks one of our AAA studs from being the long reliever. Lets wait and see how these new folks are used before we rush to conclusions. And as far as blocking roster spots, it also keeps the clock from starting on players when they are added to the 40 man.
For now, be happy that no longer will you have to curse every time Mr. Furious (aka Jeff Cirillo) swings and miss feeble at bat in 2004, and that we managed to save a million dollars in payroll that might, just might, go toward another pickup in the offseason or that much-desired trade deadline pickup.
Wiki will go to AAA where he will either get his head out of his butt and become the backup to Ben Davis when we finally say goodbye to Dan (and Coach Borders) next year. Or maybe we dump/trade Wiki and someone picks him up for the league minimum saving us $300K over 2 years for $600K
Hansen will be a PH/sub-DH, or we will deal him to an NL team, and save another 300K (pro-rated).
Jarvis will either be able to put up quality innings now that he is 2 years removed from elbow surgery, or he will fail, and we will dump him early in the season (or in Spring), and hope that another desperate team (Reds?) pick him up and save us yet another $300K.
So whereas before we could dump Cirillo and possibly save $600K over 2 seasons, we can dump 3 players and possibly save another $1.2M. This is on top of the $1M we've already saved.
I think much of the scorn comes from this landslide of negativity of our bloggers. Many blogs had Ben Davis being traded as a result, and are focused on how Jarvis blocks one of our AAA studs from being the long reliever. Lets wait and see how these new folks are used before we rush to conclusions. And as far as blocking roster spots, it also keeps the clock from starting on players when they are added to the 40 man.
For now, be happy that no longer will you have to curse every time Mr. Furious (aka Jeff Cirillo) swings and miss feeble at bat in 2004, and that we managed to save a million dollars in payroll that might, just might, go toward another pickup in the offseason or that much-desired trade deadline pickup.
Welcome to the Big Show
After reading 10 different Mariner Blogs lambasting Bavasi's latest move, I've decided that Mariner Fans need somewhere to go to read good news about the Mariners, that isn't necessarily just the PR that the newspapers do for the M's.
I am a lifelong Seattle Mariners fan, and I am well-versed in baseball knowledge as a devotee of Bill James and now Rob Neyer, and sabermetric sites like Baseball Prospectus.
Yes, the M's management does not seem to get it. But then, NO sabermetrician would have predicted 116 wins in 2001, and we have seen how low-budget teams that do not hire Billy Beane can win the World Series. So you don't have to have Vlad, or ARod, or even Tejada to win it all. It takes some good young pitching, a winning streak, and a good run in the playoffs. And the M's can do it.
The M's will do it.
In 2004.
I am a lifelong Seattle Mariners fan, and I am well-versed in baseball knowledge as a devotee of Bill James and now Rob Neyer, and sabermetric sites like Baseball Prospectus.
Yes, the M's management does not seem to get it. But then, NO sabermetrician would have predicted 116 wins in 2001, and we have seen how low-budget teams that do not hire Billy Beane can win the World Series. So you don't have to have Vlad, or ARod, or even Tejada to win it all. It takes some good young pitching, a winning streak, and a good run in the playoffs. And the M's can do it.
The M's will do it.
In 2004.
