Friday, January 23, 2004
Arbitration Scoreboard
2/18 UPDATE: Albert Pujols signs megadeal, and Pierzynski wins his case.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004.
Here is the list of 2004 arbitration filings with repeat offenders highlighted. I attempt to offer a prediction if it were to go to arbitration and highlight a key reason for my pick. I will maintain the results as they occur.
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 2003 salary arbitrations and then use that information to make a guess as to how the 2004 arbitration proceedings will go. If nothing else, its interesting to see the arbitration requests and results in 2003. All of my information comes from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get all this information.
In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot. Here's the full list...
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004.
Here is the list of 2004 arbitration filings with repeat offenders highlighted. I attempt to offer a prediction if it were to go to arbitration and highlight a key reason for my pick. I will maintain the results as they occur.
| Player | Team | 2003 Salary | 2004 Asked | 2004 Offered | Diff | Predicted Result | Actual Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Millwood | PHI | 9,900 | 12,500 | 10,000 | 2,500 | Loss (ERA up) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$11M) |
| Albert Pujols | STL | 900 | 10,500 | 7,000 | 3,500 | Win (Long-term Contract) | Signed/Big Win(7yr/$100M) |
| Eric Gagne | LA | 550 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | Win(Cy Young) | |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 1,250 | 5,000 | 4,200 | 750 | Loss(< 450 ABs) | Signed/Split ($4.5875 + 50K for 525 ABs) |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 2,875 | 4,500 | 3,400 | 1,100 | Loss(So will Split again) | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 1,750 | 3,600 | 2,500 | 1,100 | Win(OBP=.393) | Signed/Won(2-yr/$7M + $3.35M option) |
| A.J. Pierzynski | SF | 365 | 3,500 | 2,250 | 1,250 | Win(OPS=824 for C) | Win |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 1,725 | 3,300 | 2,400 | 900 | Win(OPS>900) | Signed/Win (3yr/$10.5M) |
| Vicente Padilla | PHI | 425 | 2,950 | 2,350 | 600 | Win(Consistent) | Signed/Loss (2.6M is below midpoint) |
| Shea Hillenbrand | ARI | 408 | 2,875 | 2,400 | 475 | Loss(OBP <.320) | Signed/Lost($2.6M) |
| Jay Gibbons | BAL | 375 | 2,800 | 2,400 | 400 | Win(780 OPS) | Signed/Split |
| Gabe White | NYY | 3,317 | 2,700 | 1,825 | 875 | Win(not that bad) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$2.125 with club option for 2005) |
| Johan Santana | MIN | 335 | 2,450 | 1,600 | 850 | Win(Flat Out Stud) | Lost(bad yr for pitchers) |
| Darrell May | KC | 450 | 2,200 | 1,850 | 350 | Win(K/BB improving) | Signed/Win (2yr/$4,950) |
| David Eckstein | ANA | 425 | 2,150 | 1,600 | 550 | Loss(.325 SLG,OBP) | Win(big 2002, injured 2003?) |
| Shawn Chacon | COL | 300 | 2,100 | 1,650 | 450 | Win(named closer) | Signed/Split(1yr/$1.85M with closer 100K incentives) |
| Jack Wilson | PIT | 335 | 1,850 | 1,400 | 450 | Loss(or is Released!) | Win(Pirates Mgmt is inept) |
| Guillermo Mota | LA | 675 | 1,750 | 1,200 | 550 | Win(Top reliever) | Signed/Split |
| Kyle Farnsworth | CHC | 600 | 1,700 | 1,100 | 600 | Win(K/BB up) | Signed/Split |
| Nick Johnson | MON | 364 | 1,680 | 1,250 | 400 | Loss(<350 ABs 2 yrs) | Lost |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 763 | 1,550 | 1,000 | 550 | Loss(1BB / 2inn) | Signed/Split |
| Chris Reitsma | CIN | 350 | 1,450 | 950 | 500 | Win(saves overrated) | LOST (not closer any longer?) |
| Jolbert Cabrera | LA | 435 | 1,350 | 850 | 500 | PLAYER RELEASED(see Giovanni) | Signed/Split ($1.1M w/$1.4M-2.4M Option) |
| Chad Bradford | OAK | 331 | 1,125 | 850 | 275 | Win(tough) | Signed/Lost($965K) |
| J.C. Romero | MIN | 325 | 925 | 650 | 275 | Loss(K/BB = 1) | Signed/Win(1yr/820K) |
| Damian Rolls | TB | 300 | 900 | 700 | 200 | Win(TB luck) | Signed/Split |
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the 2003 salary arbitrations and then use that information to make a guess as to how the 2004 arbitration proceedings will go. If nothing else, its interesting to see the arbitration requests and results in 2003. All of my information comes from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get all this information.
In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot. Here's the full list...
| Player | Team | 2002 Salary | 2003 Asked | 2003 Offered | 2003 Salary | Won/Lost/Sign |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Maddux | ATL | 13,100 | 16,000 | 13,500 | 14,750 | Signed/Split |
| Javier Vazquez | MON | 4,775 | 7,150 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Carlos Beltran | KC | 3,500 | 6,900 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Freddy Garcia | SEA | 3,800 | 6,875 | 5,900 | 6,875 | Won |
| Billy Koch | CHW | 2,433 | 5,900 | 4,250 | 4,250 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Sidney Ponson | BAL | 2,650 | 4,750 | 3,900 | 4,250 | Signed/Lost |
| Kelvim Escobar | TOR | 2,300 | 4,600 | 3,500 | 3,900 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Orlando Hernandez | MON | 3,200 | 4,500 | 4,000 | 4,100 | Signed/Lost |
| Jose Jimenez | COL | 1,938 | 3,900 | 3,200 | 3,600 | Signed/Won |
| Raul Ibanez | KC | 800 | 3,400 | 2,750 | 3,000 | Signed/Lost |
| Terry Adams | PHI | 2,700 | 3,395 | 2,700 | 2,900 | Signed/Lost |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 1,750 | 3,250 | 2,500 | 2,875 | Signed/Split |
| Jacque Jones | MIN | 313 | 3,200 | 2,750 | 2,750 | Signed/Multiyear |
| A.J. Burnett | FLA | 368 | 3,075 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Lost |
| Mark Redman | FLA | 300 | 2,150 | 1,800 | 2,150 | Won |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 285 | 2,050 | 1,450 | 1,750 | Signed/Split |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 350 | 2,000 | 1,450 | 1,725 | Signed/Split |
| Julio Lugo | HOU | 325 | 1,800 | 1,500 | 1,575 | Signed/Lost |
| Jerry Hairston | BAL | 300 | 1,800 | 1,150 | 1,550 | Signed/Won |
| Randall Simon | PIT | 290 | 1,800 | 1,300 | 1,475 | Signed/Lost |
| Vladamir Nunez | FLA | 360 | 1,750 | 1,400 | 1,400 | Lost |
| Scott Schoenweis | ANA | 325 | 1,550 | 1,250 | 1,425 | Signed/Won |
| Erubiel Durazo | OAK | 375 | 1,400 | 900 | 1,065 | Signed/Lost |
| Scott Strickland | NYM | 355 | 1,175 | 875 | 950 | Signed/Lost |
| Francisco Cordero | TEX | 278 | 1,175 | 775 | 900 | Signed/Lost |
| Ben Davis | SEA | 350 | 1,125 | 875 | 1,000 | Signed/Split |
| Giovanni Carrara | LA | 360 | 880 | 725 | 400 | RELEASED/OUCH |
| Joey Eischen | MON | 215 | 875 | 725 | 750 | Signed/Lost |
| Bruce Chen | CIN | 300 | 830 | 700 | 700 | Lost |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 300 | 825 | 700 | 762.5 | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mirabelli | BAL | 650 | 950 | 660 | 805 | Signed/Split |
| Lou Merloni | BOS | 290 | 625 | 450 | 560 | Signed/Won |
| Dan Reichert | TB | 265 | 600 | 450 | 525 | Signed/Split |
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
