Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Another Darned Good Start 

Aaron Sele follows up Ryan Franklin's gem with one of his own, Shiggy makes it stick, and Guardado about gives us all another heart attack before saving a 2-1 Mariners win over the Royals.

Recently, several sabermatricians have been promoting the concept of a "Quality Start", defined by sportswriter John Lowe as the pitcher going at least 6 innings, and giving up 3 or fewer earned runs. I think this is too specific a criteria, and does not take into account ineffecive bullpens or game situations that allow a pitcher to be pulled in the sixth, or groove a few more pitches. If a pitcher is up 9-0, and gives up 4 runs, that is a darned good start in my book. If a pitcher leaves after 5 innings up 3-0, that is also a darned good start.

So, I'm going to track the Mariners "darned good starts" (DGS) vs. "ugly starts" (US). This is a somewhat subjective statistic whose definition I'll try to refine over the course of the year. Essentially, it will reward any quality start plus any start where the pitcher leaves with a lead, handles some sort of duress, or maybe was the victim of a bullpen blowup allowing extra runs to score.

Here's a record of the Mariners DGS up to now, and how the team has fared in each.

Pitcher (DGS/QS/US, M's record in DGS, M's record in US)
Jamie Moyer (2/0/0, 1-1, 0-0) - Guardado blew up Jamie's second DGS.
Gil Meche (0/0/2, 0-0, 0-2) - bullpen has hurt him, but still unable to make it out of fifth in either start.
Bobby Madritsch (0/0/1, 0-0, 0-1) - Injury pulled Mad Dog out early and perhaps for a long time.
Aaron Sele (2/1/0, 2-0, 0-0) - his first start is a perfect example of the Darned Good Start that does not qualify as a quality start.
Ryan Franklin (1/1/0, 1-0, 0-0)
Mariner Total (5/3, 4-1, 0-3)

I'll work on getting this into a more readable summary form on the sidebar soon.

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