Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Ichiro's Edge 

An excellent article from the master, Bill James, visits Hardball Times to discuss Ichiro's Edge in playing in 162 games vs 154 games. The article is, as you would expect from James, an entertaining read. The conclusion is surprising.

Essentially, James discovers through simulation that for Roger Maris, a hitter averaging 42 HRs a year, going from 154 to 162 games per year increased his chances of hitting 61 HR in a season by 177%. He sets up Ichiro as a .350 hitter who average more at bats than Maris, and runs the same simulation and finds that going to 162 games increases Ichiro's chances by a whopping 901% (once every 24 years vs. once every 237 years).

As an aside, James' simulation also finds that Ichiro hits .400 once every 200 years, so we should have something to look forward to next year. He's due.

Today's picks:

  • Expos (Hernandez) +170 over Marlins (Willis)
  • Rangers (Rogers) +160 over Athletics (Harden)
  • Mariners (Moyer) +170 over Angels (Sele)
  • Rockies (Francis) -145 over Diamondbacks (Randolph)

Money to date: $262 (picking dog/favorite = +1492/-1230, 38-51, 30-27) - Indians (+100), Philles(+100), Expos(+240) all pickup wins for me and I'm BACK IN BLACK! That should be a lesson for all you baseball gamblers out there - if you are losing... walk away for awhile. And if you are betting on baseball, you have MUCH more knowledge in September than you do in April.

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