Wednesday, March 10, 2004

Team Health Report Now Available 

Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus has just released the Team Health Report on your Seattle Mariners, and the news is relatively good. For those unfamiliar with Carroll's methods, he uses the time-honored traffic light analogy on each player, and provides an explanation for most.

The only red light received was on Gil Meche about whom Carroll writes... "Meche actually didn't lose much velocity as the season went on last year, which surprised me. With his past shoulder surgeries and his second-half '03 results, I really expected the fatigue to show up more on the radar gun. I don't really have a medical explanation for his second half, but anyone with his medical history is a sure red light until he puts up a couple more injury-free seasons. " So, in effect, this is the same red light Meche would have had last year. Many expect Meche's arm to fall off in the near future, but I believe the fact that he actually gained velocity in the second half shows that concerns may be overstated.

Yellow lights were given to Freddy Garcia (too many pitches per outing), Jamie Moyer (41), Ryan Franklin(more innings than ever before), Edgar Martinez (avoid running), Rich Aurilia (recovers quickly but has injury history), and surprisingly, Randy Winn. The Winn pick seems to be based on the fact that he is 30, moving to centerfield, and some of his "comparables" broke down at this age.

Like most at BP, Carroll can't resist the opportunity to sling a few barbs at Mariners management, but for the most part he does good work. He identifies Bret Boone and Ichiro as critical figures to keep healthy, which is a no-brainer. And he has some fun with fellow BP-er from USS Mariner, Derek Zumsteg as he writes "the upside of an interesting Seattle season is watching Derek Zumsteg edge closer to Hunter S. Thompson territory. "

Steve's Mariner Wheelhouse will be hosting a Q&A with Will Carroll in the near future and he asks you to submit questions to him by email.

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