Thursday, February 19, 2004
2004 Arbitration Scoreboard Complete
And now it is complete. With Gagne's arbitration loss, and assuming Pujols and the Cardinals finalize their 7 year, $100 million dollar contract, the arbitration season is over.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004. Of those, seven actually went to arbitration with three winning. The winners wer David Eckstein, Jack Wilson, and A.J. Pierzynski. All middle-tier position players. The losers were Eric Gagne, Johan Santana, Chris Reitsma, and Nick Johnson: two stud pitchers, a rising closer, and an ex-Yankee bat. So we have learned that even the best pitchers are risky and should avoid arbitration as past performance of similar pitchers probably goes all over the place. Mediocre middle infielders and catchers should go to arbitration as they can point to their defensive skills. First basemen cannot.
Of those 19 players signing, 9 split right down the middle, 5 signed for above the midpoint and 5 for below the midpoint. Of the five who signed for more than the midpoint, only J.C. Romero did not receive a multiyear contract, so owners showed their saavy. If you are going to lose, get multiple years, which maybe turns those player wins into player losses long-term.
Its a small sample size, but it looks to me like Placido Polanco would have won his arbitration case, and made a mistake signing, and that most of those who signed were wise to do so, even if it was marked as a Signed/Lost.
Here is a summary of the 2004 arbitration filings, my predicted result, and the actual results, with links to stories with more information about their deals.
For comparison, here is a look at 2003, which was the year of the starting pitcher. In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot.
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
Here's the full list for 2003...
All of the arbitration request information came from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get this kind of data.
26 players have filed for salary arbitration in 2004. Of those, seven actually went to arbitration with three winning. The winners wer David Eckstein, Jack Wilson, and A.J. Pierzynski. All middle-tier position players. The losers were Eric Gagne, Johan Santana, Chris Reitsma, and Nick Johnson: two stud pitchers, a rising closer, and an ex-Yankee bat. So we have learned that even the best pitchers are risky and should avoid arbitration as past performance of similar pitchers probably goes all over the place. Mediocre middle infielders and catchers should go to arbitration as they can point to their defensive skills. First basemen cannot.
Of those 19 players signing, 9 split right down the middle, 5 signed for above the midpoint and 5 for below the midpoint. Of the five who signed for more than the midpoint, only J.C. Romero did not receive a multiyear contract, so owners showed their saavy. If you are going to lose, get multiple years, which maybe turns those player wins into player losses long-term.
Its a small sample size, but it looks to me like Placido Polanco would have won his arbitration case, and made a mistake signing, and that most of those who signed were wise to do so, even if it was marked as a Signed/Lost.
Here is a summary of the 2004 arbitration filings, my predicted result, and the actual results, with links to stories with more information about their deals.
| Player | Team | 2003 Salary | 2004 Asked | 2004 Offered | Diff | Predicted Result | Actual Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Millwood | PHI | 9,900 | 12,500 | 10,000 | 2,500 | Loss (ERA up) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$11M) |
| Albert Pujols | STL | 900 | 10,500 | 7,000 | 3,500 | Win (Long-term Contract) | Signed/Big Win(7yr/$100M) |
| Eric Gagne | LA | 550 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 3,000 | Win(Cy Young) | LOST |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 1,250 | 5,000 | 4,200 | 750 | Loss(< 450 ABs) | Signed/Split ($4.5875 + 50K for 525 ABs) |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 2,875 | 4,500 | 3,400 | 1,100 | Loss(So will Split again) | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 1,750 | 3,600 | 2,500 | 1,100 | Win(OBP=.393) | Signed/Won(2-yr/$7M + $3.35M option) |
| A.J. Pierzynski | SF | 365 | 3,500 | 2,250 | 1,250 | Win(OPS=824 for C) | WON |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 1,725 | 3,300 | 2,400 | 900 | Win(OPS>900) | Signed/Won (3yr/$10.5M) |
| Vicente Padilla | PHI | 425 | 2,950 | 2,350 | 600 | Win(Consistent) | Signed/Lost (2.6M is below midpoint) |
| Shea Hillenbrand | ARI | 408 | 2,875 | 2,400 | 475 | Loss(OBP <.320) | Signed/Lost($2.6M) |
| Jay Gibbons | BAL | 375 | 2,800 | 2,400 | 400 | Win(780 OPS) | Signed/Split |
| Gabe White | NYY | 3,317 | 2,700 | 1,825 | 875 | Win(not that bad) | Signed/Lost(1yr/$2.125 with club option for 2005) |
| Johan Santana | MIN | 335 | 2,450 | 1,600 | 850 | Win(Flat Out Stud) | LOST(bad yr for pitchers) |
| Darrell May | KC | 450 | 2,200 | 1,850 | 350 | Win(K/BB improving) | Signed/Won (2yr/$4,950) |
| David Eckstein | ANA | 425 | 2,150 | 1,600 | 550 | Loss(.325 SLG,OBP) | WON(big 2002, injured 2003?) |
| Shawn Chacon | COL | 300 | 2,100 | 1,650 | 450 | Win(named closer) | Signed/Split(1yr/$1.85M with closer 100K incentives) |
| Jack Wilson | PIT | 335 | 1,850 | 1,400 | 450 | Loss(or is Released!) | WON(Pirates Mgmt is inept) |
| Guillermo Mota | LA | 675 | 1,750 | 1,200 | 550 | Win(Top reliever) | Signed/Split |
| Kyle Farnsworth | CHC | 600 | 1,700 | 1,100 | 600 | Win(K/BB up) | Signed/Split |
| Nick Johnson | MON | 364 | 1,680 | 1,250 | 400 | Loss(<350 ABs 2 yrs) | LOST |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 763 | 1,550 | 1,000 | 550 | Loss(1BB / 2inn) | Signed/Split |
| Chris Reitsma | CIN | 350 | 1,450 | 950 | 500 | Win(saves overrated) | LOST (not closer any longer?) |
| Jolbert Cabrera | LA | 435 | 1,350 | 850 | 500 | PLAYER RELEASED(see Giovanni) | Signed/Split ($1.1M w/$1.4M-2.4M Option) |
| Chad Bradford | OAK | 331 | 1,125 | 850 | 275 | Win(tough) | Signed/Lost($965K) |
| J.C. Romero | MIN | 325 | 925 | 650 | 275 | Loss(K/BB = 1) | Signed/Won(1yr/820K) |
| Damian Rolls | TB | 300 | 900 | 700 | 200 | Win(TB luck) | Signed/Split |
For comparison, here is a look at 2003, which was the year of the starting pitcher. In 2003, 42 players filed for salary arbitration, but only 7 players went to arbitration. Of those seven, only two players won - Mark Redman and Freddy Garcia. Amazingly, an arbiter decided that Freddy was worth 6.875M and not 5.9M while Carlos Beltran was given 6M instead of the 6.95M he asked for. Arbitration appears to be a bit of a crapshoot.
Interestingly, the salary gaps in 2004 are MUCH wider than in 2003. The average difference between owner and player is $1,000,000. In 2004, the average difference was around $440,000.
The top three requests are more than $2.5 million apart. In 2003, only Greg Maddux was separated by that much.
Take those three players out of the mix, and the average gap is still $700,000 while removing Maddux drops the 2003 average to $375,000, which could account for how few players actually went to arbitration.
In 2003, six players asked for $800,000 or more greater than the owners were willing to spend and that is the same as in 2004.
The main difference seems to be a great reduction in the number of filings that are $300,000 or less apart. 11 filed for this "pittance" in 2003 while only 3 in 2004.
Here's the full list for 2003...
| Player | Team | 2002 Salary | 2003 Asked | 2003 Offered | 2003 Salary | Won/Lost/Sign |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Maddux | ATL | 13,100 | 16,000 | 13,500 | 14,750 | Signed/Split |
| Javier Vazquez | MON | 4,775 | 7,150 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Carlos Beltran | KC | 3,500 | 6,900 | 6,000 | 6,000 | Lost |
| Freddy Garcia | SEA | 3,800 | 6,875 | 5,900 | 6,875 | Won |
| Billy Koch | CHW | 2,433 | 5,900 | 4,250 | 4,250 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Sidney Ponson | BAL | 2,650 | 4,750 | 3,900 | 4,250 | Signed/Lost |
| Kelvim Escobar | TOR | 2,300 | 4,600 | 3,500 | 3,900 | Signed/Multiyear |
| Orlando Hernandez | MON | 3,200 | 4,500 | 4,000 | 4,100 | Signed/Lost |
| Jose Jimenez | COL | 1,938 | 3,900 | 3,200 | 3,600 | Signed/Won |
| Raul Ibanez | KC | 800 | 3,400 | 2,750 | 3,000 | Signed/Lost |
| Terry Adams | PHI | 2,700 | 3,395 | 2,700 | 2,900 | Signed/Lost |
| Placido Polanco | PHI | 1,750 | 3,250 | 2,500 | 2,875 | Signed/Split |
| Jacque Jones | MIN | 313 | 3,200 | 2,750 | 2,750 | Signed/Multiyear |
| A.J. Burnett | FLA | 368 | 3,075 | 2,500 | 2,500 | Lost |
| Mark Redman | FLA | 300 | 2,150 | 1,800 | 2,150 | Won |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | MIN | 285 | 2,050 | 1,450 | 1,750 | Signed/Split |
| Melvin Mora | BAL | 350 | 2,000 | 1,450 | 1,725 | Signed/Split |
| Julio Lugo | HOU | 325 | 1,800 | 1,500 | 1,575 | Signed/Lost |
| Jerry Hairston | BAL | 300 | 1,800 | 1,150 | 1,550 | Signed/Won |
| Randall Simon | PIT | 290 | 1,800 | 1,300 | 1,475 | Signed/Lost |
| Vladamir Nunez | FLA | 360 | 1,750 | 1,400 | 1,400 | Lost |
| Scott Schoenweis | ANA | 325 | 1,550 | 1,250 | 1,425 | Signed/Won |
| Erubiel Durazo | OAK | 375 | 1,400 | 900 | 1,065 | Signed/Lost |
| Scott Strickland | NYM | 355 | 1,175 | 875 | 950 | Signed/Lost |
| Francisco Cordero | TEX | 278 | 1,175 | 775 | 900 | Signed/Lost |
| Ben Davis | SEA | 350 | 1,125 | 875 | 1,000 | Signed/Split |
| Giovanni Carrara | LA | 360 | 880 | 725 | 400 | RELEASED/OUCH |
| Joey Eischen | MON | 215 | 875 | 725 | 750 | Signed/Lost |
| Bruce Chen | CIN | 300 | 830 | 700 | 700 | Lost |
| B.J. Ryan | BAL | 300 | 825 | 700 | 762.5 | Signed/Split |
| Doug Mirabelli | BAL | 650 | 950 | 660 | 805 | Signed/Split |
| Lou Merloni | BOS | 290 | 625 | 450 | 560 | Signed/Won |
| Dan Reichert | TB | 265 | 600 | 450 | 525 | Signed/Split |
All of the arbitration request information came from Doug Pappas, SABR Business of Baseball Committee, and I highly recommend bookmarking his site since the only place I know of to get this kind of data.
