Friday, January 09, 2004

Killing The Second-Half Swoon 

Art Thiel's latest article follows a thought I had about Aurilia being a late season upgrade over Guillen in an attempt to avoid the dreaded August slump that has kept the M's out of the playoffs for two years. Thiel's statistical analysis is lacking but he does try to have fun with the term "inflamed pelvis", so its worth a quick read.

The main problem I have with this article beside the failed attempts at humor and the focus on batting average as a measure of player success is the fact that it focuses on September, and not August where I believe we have sucked for a long time.

Year Aug. Sept.
2003 14-15 13-12
2002 13-15 14-12
2001 20-9 15-6
2000 11-17 18-10

Obviously, the differences were more pronounced in the Piniella years, but August has always been a horrible month for the M's.

2003 M's with more than 200 August ABs in 3 years with 3-year splits of OPS vs. August OPS
Boone 885 / 876
Edgar 919 / 909
Ichiro 814 / 742 !!!
Cameron 796 / 750
Winn 781 / 721
Olerud 843 / 795
Guillen 719 / 608
Wilson 683 / 723
Cirillo 701 / 733

New M's (3-year splits):
Scott Spiezio 784 / 855
Raul Ibanez 839 / 874
Rich Aurilia 807 / 768

Missed on:
Miguel Tejada 824 / 825
Omar Vizquel 698 / 574 - another reason I'm thankful this fell through.

Spiezio and Ibanez look like they might very well prevent the August swoon, certainly moreso than Cameron and Cirillo have done in years past. And while Aurilia hasn't fired it up in August, he has been heckuva lot better than Carlos Guillen's puny 608. We still need to find a cure for Ichiro's late season woes, but that's another article entirely.

So, perk up, M's fans! The August flailing is officially over.

Bring on the playoffs.

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?